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battery  megafactories  are coming","the-battery-megafactories-are-coming-2","article/the-battery-megafactories-are-coming-2",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":994,"featured":50,"reporter":995,"_editable":999,"component":1000,"seo_title":553,"categories":1001,"visibility":1011,"author_company":1012,"featured_image":1013,"seo_description":994,"author_full_name":1012,"author_job_title":1012,"formattedDate":1017,"formattedArticleDate":1018},"bb8e9f56-a50d-417e-8a00-dfc0162d858c","2016-07-20 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,615,620,625,630,635,640,645,650,657,662,667,672,677,680,685,690,695,700,705,710,715,720,725,730,733,736,741,746,751,756,761,764,769,774,779,784,789,794,799,804,809,814,819,824,829,832,837,842,847,852,855,860,865,870,875,880,885,890,895,900,905,910,913,918,923,928,933,938,943,948,951,956,961,966,971,976,981,986,991],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579}," Tesla Motors, LG Chem, Boston Power and Foxconn are building battery super-plants that will come on-stream in the next three years. The new supply could revolutionise how we source and use energy, creating a once-in-a-century disruptive event","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"A global race is on to build the world’s biggest battery plant.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"For what would have sounded like fantasy only a year ago, some of the world’s major corporations are now vying to become the next leading producer of lithium-ion batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"Tesla Motors Inc sparked furore with its Gigafactory plan to double the world’s capacity. But subsequent plans of LG Chem Ltd, Boston-Power Inc and Foxconn Technology Group have turned it into a case of when and not if a new scale of battery plant enters production.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"All three companies are eyeing rapid growth in electric vehicle (EV) and utility industries as justification for their grand plans.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"It is a trend that rapidly gathered pace in 2014 and one that will see the world’s battery capacity rise by over 150% by 2020.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"Last year, the world produced 35GWh worth of battery cells, but the three megafactory projects alone will add a further 57GWh.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"Tesla is planning to build what will be the world’s biggest battery plant in Nevada, USA, a project it has branded the Gigafactory. It is expected cost up to $5bn and produce enough to power 500,000 EVs.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":579},"Phase one will supply batteries for at least 100,000 EVs and is set to be completed by December 2015, a year ahead of schedule.",{"type":574,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":579},"Meanwhile, China is the focus for LG Chem and Foxconn which are planning to build super-plants, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates could bring a further combined capacity of 22 GWh. LG Chem has already broken ground on its lithium-ion facility in Nanjing while Foxconn’s Anhui facility is awaiting final board approval as of Q1 2015.",{"type":574,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"It is also important to note these projects are not the only new supply planned with battery leaders such as Samsung SDI also opening new plants and seeking expansions of existing operations.",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"In August 2014, for example, the company broke ground on a new EV battery plant in Xi’an, Shanxi province, China which will start operations in October 2015 and produce lithium-ion batteries or 40,000 vehicles.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"The new supply will add momentum to already falling production costs.",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"The cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 14% a year on average over the last 15 years to today’s level of $250/kWh. But with megafactory economies of scale this is forecast to drop to $150/kWh by 2017 and $100/KWh within five years.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"Many believe this will drive down the cost of EVs and spark mass uptake.",{"type":651,"attrs":652,"content":654},"heading",{"level":653,"textAlign":49},3,[655],{"text":656,"type":579}," Multi-billion dollar merge",{"type":574,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":579},"The major catalyst in the megafactory race has been the disruption caused by Tesla Motors.",{"type":574,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665],{"text":666,"type":579},"The company is not a traditional car manufacturer. The entry into the auto industry by what was, back in 2003, a Silicon Valley start-up, has caused major disruption to a mature industry forcing established companies such as General Motors Co. (GM) and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd to take a more proactive approach in the EV space.",{"type":574,"attrs":668,"content":669},{"textAlign":49},[670],{"text":671,"type":579},"Tesla Motors is also not a traditional battery producer. Yet, the turbulence caused by its Gigafactory plan has also sparked major battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and Samsung to either expand or build new plants.",{"type":574,"attrs":673,"content":674},{"textAlign":49},[675],{"text":676,"type":579},"“Disruptors usually come from the outside,” Tony Seba, a leading expert in disruptive technologies and lecturer at California-based Stanford University, explained to Benchmark.",{"type":574,"attrs":678,"content":679},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":579},"“Before the [Apple] iPhone, there were three very separate industries: computers, telephones, and communications. These industries have merged. They are now all the same.”",{"type":574,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":579},"“Previously you had one major industry investing in batteries: electronics. Now, you have three: auto, electronics and energy.” “This has started a virtuous cycle of investment, lower production costs and demand which will lead to EV adoption and batteries used to store renewables like solar and wind,” Seba explained.",{"type":574,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":579},"The convergence of these three major industries on the battery space is a critical point. Not only does it provide new funds and new competition, but it takes the problems of battery supply that have restricted demand uptake and forces companies to view the market with fresh eyes.",{"type":574,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":579},"This disruption sparks others into action.",{"type":574,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":579},"Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, explained the impact of its first EV, the Roadster, had on its launch in 2008: “When we first announced the Roadster, Bob Lutz of GM saw it and told his engineers that if a small company in California can do it, so can GM. That’s what got the [Chevrolet] Volt rolling and that in turn got Nissan to do the LEAF.”",{"type":574,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":579},"“It’s what we induce others to do that will have a greater impact than the cars we make ourselves”",{"type":651,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"level":653,"textAlign":49},[713],{"text":714,"type":579}," Better batteries, bigger batteries ",{"type":574,"attrs":716,"content":717},{"textAlign":49},[718],{"text":719,"type":579},"Battery performance and cost have always been the main talking points of EVs.",{"type":574,"attrs":721,"content":722},{"textAlign":49},[723],{"text":724,"type":579},"Common and often correct complaints are that the batteries are too expensive (which in turn makes the cars too expensive) and they do not last long enough on one charge.",{"type":574,"attrs":726,"content":727},{"textAlign":49},[728],{"text":729,"type":579},"Electrification of transport will not succeed unless the world has cheap, abundant, longer lasting batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":731,"content":732},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"textAlign":49},[739],{"text":740,"type":579},"But with the cost of batteries falling and EVs improving, many leading figures in the industry – including GM’s former chief, Bob Lutz, and Tesla’s Elon Musk – believe electrification is inevitable, it is just a question of timescale.",{"type":574,"attrs":742,"content":743},{"textAlign":49},[744],{"text":745,"type":579},"In December 2014, Tesla revealed that owners of the Roadster, the company’s first EV, could receive an upgrade that would boost its range by over 50% to 400 miles (644km).",{"type":574,"attrs":747,"content":748},{"textAlign":49},[749],{"text":750,"type":579},"The move is testament to how much batteries have improved since the Roadster first came on the market in 2008, even without the disruptive megafactories.",{"type":574,"attrs":752,"content":753},{"textAlign":49},[754],{"text":755,"type":579},"Tesla has managed to extend the range of its vehicles in two major ways: by using bigger batteries – more than three times the average size of the Nissan LEAF – and designing its cars around the battery to optimise performance.",{"type":574,"attrs":757,"content":758},{"textAlign":49},[759],{"text":760,"type":579},"Tesla’s Model S is equipped with a 60kWh or an 85kWh lithium-ion battery whereas the Nissan LEAF, which is the world’s best-selling EV, has a 24kWh battery. A new generation of LEAF set for launch in mid-2016 has been tipped to have double the range of its predecessor and is expected to follow a similar strategy to Tesla.",{"type":574,"attrs":762,"content":763},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":765,"content":766},{"textAlign":49},[767],{"text":768,"type":579},"“The battery chemistry is all about range and energy density,” explained Andy Palmer, former executive vice president of Nissan’s zero emissions business in 2014.",{"type":574,"attrs":770,"content":771},{"textAlign":49},[772],{"text":773,"type":579},"“This is really game-changing technology.” If batteries are the holy grail of EVs then energy density is the holy grail of batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":775,"content":776},{"textAlign":49},[777],{"text":778,"type":579},"Packing more energy into a smaller space while maintaining a light weight is critical if batteries are going to meet modern vehicle expectations, let alone future needs – and this will come down to the raw materials used.",{"type":574,"attrs":780,"content":781},{"textAlign":49},[782],{"text":783,"type":579},"To have a world which runs on batteries, the innovation will need to come from not only the cell producers, but also from the raw material suppliers. Ironically it may not be the car manufacturers that have the final word in the success or failure of EVs.",{"type":651,"attrs":785,"content":786},{"level":653,"textAlign":49},[787],{"text":788,"type":579}," Utility impact",{"type":574,"attrs":790,"content":791},{"textAlign":49},[792],{"text":793,"type":579},"A more immediate impact of better and bigger batteries that has received less publicity is utility or stationary storage – the ability to store energy off-grid in large scale batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":795,"content":796},{"textAlign":49},[797],{"text":798,"type":579},"While the subject has received far less attention than EVs, there were some major developments in 2014.",{"type":574,"attrs":800,"content":801},{"textAlign":49},[802],{"text":803,"type":579},"The US has moved forward with utility storage plans in California, Hawaii and New York that will see a mix of battery technologies deployed in major urban areas.",{"type":574,"attrs":805,"content":806},{"textAlign":49},[807],{"text":808,"type":579},"American Vanadium Corp., a Canadabased company focused on energy storage, subsequently struck a deal with New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) to develop vanadium-flow battery facilities.",{"type":574,"attrs":810,"content":811},{"textAlign":49},[812],{"text":813,"type":579},"The company plans to install its modular 10kWh system commercially known as CellCube in downtown Manhattan.",{"type":574,"attrs":815,"content":816},{"textAlign":49},[817],{"text":818,"type":579},"“New York’s energy distribution grid is the oldest in the world… but the city is now reorganising its utility storage model and is rapidly developing into an energy marketplace,” Mike Hyslop, director of American Vanadium explained to Benchmark.",{"type":574,"attrs":820,"content":821},{"textAlign":49},[822],{"text":823,"type":579},"Hyslop emphasised that it is not necessarily about going off-grid for New York – unlike Hawaii that wants to cut its ties to petroleum power generation – but more about securing back-up power, especially after experiencing two blackouts in less than a decade.",{"type":574,"attrs":825,"content":826},{"textAlign":49},[827],{"text":828,"type":579},"The city’s blackout of 2003 was caused by a downed power line in Ohio, while the second in 2012 was in the wake of Hurricane Sandy which left 6m people within 15 states and 20% of New York City’s population without power for over two days.",{"type":574,"attrs":830,"content":831},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":833,"content":834},{"textAlign":49},[835],{"text":836,"type":579},"Off-grid storage has a wider range of battery technologies competing for the space. The fact they are stationary means weight is less of an issue, while energy density, maintaining charge over long periods of time and discharge rate is of higher importance.",{"type":574,"attrs":838,"content":839},{"textAlign":49},[840],{"text":841,"type":579},"Patricio de Solminihac, the chief operating officer of SQM, the world’s leading lithium brine producer, explained to Benchmark how it sees this battery chemistry competition developing.",{"type":574,"attrs":843,"content":844},{"textAlign":49},[845],{"text":846,"type":579},"“Since there are no restrictions in the size and weight of types of batteries, as you have with batteries used in portable devices and EVs, we see other technologies competing with lithium in stationary storage applications,” de Solminihac said.",{"type":574,"attrs":848,"content":849},{"textAlign":49},[850],{"text":851,"type":579},"Lithium-ion batteries are still being used, while vanadium flow technology is also gaining prominence in this area. Lead acid is the more mature battery chemistry that has been favoured in the past for large scale, back-up power, but for a number of reasons, including environmental, it is less popular now.",{"type":574,"attrs":853,"content":854},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":856,"content":857},{"textAlign":49},[858],{"text":859,"type":579},"“The issue isn’t about energy generation,” American Vanadium president and CEO, Bill Radvak explained in an interview, “It’s about solving the peak load problem.” “Energy generation today does not fit with people’s consumption patterns,” he said.",{"type":574,"attrs":861,"content":862},{"textAlign":49},[863],{"text":864,"type":579},"Using batteries to smooth out the peaks and troughs in energy production is not a new concept, but until now it has not been commercially viable.",{"type":574,"attrs":866,"content":867},{"textAlign":49},[868],{"text":869,"type":579},"With battery back-up systems, energy companies can feed power back into the grid to meet momentary demand rather than ramping up output at their oil, gas, or coal fired plants.",{"type":574,"attrs":871,"content":872},{"textAlign":49},[873],{"text":874,"type":579},"“The education process for utilities has begun and this requires one hundred million dollars of batteries. When it takes off the industry will need billions of dollars of batteries,” Radvak said.",{"type":574,"attrs":876,"content":877},{"textAlign":49},[878],{"text":879,"type":579},"The industry is seeing far more activity now than in any period in history.",{"type":574,"attrs":881,"content":882},{"textAlign":49},[883],{"text":884,"type":579},"Companies such as US-based Eos Energy Storage believe it has reached a production cost of $160/kWh with its zinc-based cathode technology. The company has teamed up with energy providers and distributors in the US and Europe, such as the US National Grid and Italy’s Enel, in a bid modernise today’s energy distribution model.",{"type":574,"attrs":886,"content":887},{"textAlign":49},[888],{"text":889,"type":579},"Meanwhile, Ambri Inc is pursuing a different line of liquid batteries, originally based on a magnesium and antimony metal solution.",{"type":574,"attrs":891,"content":892},{"textAlign":49},[893],{"text":894,"type":579},"The design involves two liquid state metal electrodes that are separated by a molten salt electrolyte with density differences keeping the layers from mixing.",{"type":574,"attrs":896,"content":897},{"textAlign":49},[898],{"text":899,"type":579},"Future chemistries involve: lithium, sodium, barium (derived from the mineral barite, presently used as an oil drilling agent), calcium and strontium.",{"type":574,"attrs":901,"content":902},{"textAlign":49},[903],{"text":904,"type":579},"With many companies paving the way for battery adoption in the utility industry, a significant increase in installed battery capacity is anticipated towards the end of this decade and into the 2020s.",{"type":574,"attrs":906,"content":907},{"textAlign":49},[908],{"text":909,"type":579},"Navigant Research estimates that we could see an increase from today’s level of 538.4 MW of installed capacity to 20.8GW by 2024.",{"type":574,"attrs":911,"content":912},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":914,"content":915},{"textAlign":49},[916],{"text":917,"type":579},"The company also explained that lithiumion batteries have “established a clear lead in the market as the technology of choice not only in short-duration applications but also bulk storage.”",{"type":651,"attrs":919,"content":920},{"level":653,"textAlign":49},[921],{"text":922,"type":579}," Mobile history lesson",{"type":574,"attrs":924,"content":925},{"textAlign":49},[926],{"text":927,"type":579},"Batteries have become so engrained in our lives that it is hard to believe the first commercialised rechargeable lithium-ion battery was launched in 1992.",{"type":574,"attrs":929,"content":930},{"textAlign":49},[931],{"text":932,"type":579},"Just a decade ago, the mobile technology era was just getting started.",{"type":574,"attrs":934,"content":935},{"textAlign":49},[936],{"text":937,"type":579},"In 2005, the Nokia N70 was the first smartphone to sell over one million handsets in a year.",{"type":574,"attrs":939,"content":940},{"textAlign":49},[941],{"text":942,"type":579},"Two years later, the inaugural Apple iPhone sold one million handsets in 72 days and in 2014 both iPhone 6 models sold 10m units within three days of launch.",{"type":574,"attrs":944,"content":945},{"textAlign":49},[946],{"text":947,"type":579},"The speed of smartphone uptake is increasing. In March 2015, the smartphone sector was growing at a rate of 25% a year.",{"type":574,"attrs":949,"content":950},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":952,"content":953},{"textAlign":49},[954],{"text":955,"type":579},"Apple revealed that sales of its iPhone product line were growing at 49% a year, mainly owing to its successful entry into the Chinese market.",{"type":574,"attrs":957,"content":958},{"textAlign":49},[959],{"text":960,"type":579},"Respected UBS analyst, Steven Milunovich, believes that in Q2 2015 sales will keep on surging with a forecast of 58m units in the quarter compared with 44m in the same period only 12 months ago.",{"type":574,"attrs":962,"content":963},{"textAlign":49},[964],{"text":965,"type":579},"The astonishing growth rates in the smartphone market compared with industrial markets, shows that the industry is still yet to reach maturity. These devices are still finding new uses.",{"type":574,"attrs":967,"content":968},{"textAlign":49},[969],{"text":970,"type":579},"Consumers now use their phones to do far more than make a call, send messages and check emails.",{"type":574,"attrs":972,"content":973},{"textAlign":49},[974],{"text":975,"type":579},"Usage has rocketed, yet the battery that powers the increasingly vital smart phone is not experiencing the same research and development progress.",{"type":574,"attrs":977,"content":978},{"textAlign":49},[979],{"text":980,"type":579},"“Three objects are considered essential across all participants, cultures and genders: keys, money and mobile phone,” said Nokia’s former principal scientist, Jan Chipchase.",{"type":574,"attrs":982,"content":983},{"textAlign":49},[984],{"text":985,"type":579},"While smartphones have been surging, the critical item that powered it, the battery, has always been playing catch.",{"type":574,"attrs":987,"content":988},{"textAlign":49},[989],{"text":990,"type":579},"It is only now that imbalance is starting to be corrected.",{"type":574,"attrs":992,"content":993},{"textAlign":49},[],"Tesla Motors, LG Chem, Boston Power and Foxconn are building battery super-plants that will come on-stream in the next three years. The new supply could revolutionise how we source and use energy, creating a once-in-a-century disruptive event",[996],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":997},{"job_title":565,"image":998,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"bb8e9f56-a50d-417e-8a00-dfc0162d858c\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[1002,1005,1008],{"slug":1003,"name":1004},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":1006,"name":1007},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":1009,"name":1010},"gigafactories","Battery & Gigafactory","private","",{"id":49,"alt":1012,"name":1012,"focus":1012,"title":1012,"source":1012,"filename":1014,"copyright":1012,"fieldtype":1015,"meta_data":1016,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/1ee8d661c4/bm-tesla-gigafactory-e1572001087107.jpg","asset",{"alt":1012,"title":1012,"source":1012,"copyright":1012},"Jul 20, 2016","20th July 2016",[],[],1789982604933]