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DRC cobalt export ban: what are the potential next steps?","the-drc-cobalt-export-ban-what-are-the-potential-next-steps","article/the-drc-cobalt-export-ban-what-are-the-potential-next-steps",{"_uid":556,"date":557,"tags":558,"editor":565,"content":575,"excerpt":654,"featured":51,"reporter":655,"_editable":659,"component":660,"seo_title":552,"categories":661,"visibility":673,"author_company":49,"featured_image":674,"seo_description":654,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":678,"formattedArticleDate":679},"814e0a14-9a4b-493a-9864-1f94c4b3fcc8","2025-04-25 00:00",[559,562],{"slug":560,"name":561},"drc","DRC",{"slug":563,"name":564},"policy","Policy",[566],{"slug":567,"name":568,"content":569},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":570,"image":571,"bio":573,"linkedin":574},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":572},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":576,"content":577},"doc",[578,585,590,595,600,607,612,617,629,634,639,644,649],{"type":579,"attrs":580,"content":581},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[582],{"text":583,"type":584},"Midway into the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) four-month ban on cobalt exports, the cobalt market is awaiting further clarity on the government’s next course of action.","text",{"type":579,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":584},"The ban—designed to prop up prices that had fallen to historic lows by early 2025, thus depriving the government of vital revenues—had an immediate and significant impact: cobalt hydroxide prices are up 95% year-to-date, as of 23rd April.",{"type":579,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":584},"Whilst nothing is confirmed, speculation is circulating that the ban could be extended beyond the initial four month period, the Benchmark Cobalt Price Assessment reports. Meanwhile DRC officials have previously floated the idea of a supply quota system to manage future supply more tightly.",{"type":579,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":584},"Here, Benchmark considers two scenarios and how they could impact cobalt prices and market dynamics in the short to medium term.",{"type":601,"attrs":602,"content":604},"heading",{"level":603,"textAlign":49},4,[605],{"text":606,"type":584},"Scenario 1: Base case",{"type":579,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":584},"In Benchmark’s base case scenario, some short-term supply-side disruptions are anticipated and global stocks are drawn down to cover imbalances, but DRC supply largely continues unabated. ",{"type":579,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":584},"Indeed, major DRC-based players are maintaining throughput rates on bullish copper fundamentals, with CMOC—the world’s largest cobalt miner—announcing Q1 cobalt results of 30kt, up 21% on the previous year. ",{"type":618,"attrs":619},"blok",{"id":620,"body":621},"bd977b8f-bb52-4be6-abed-bb469ae2cbaf",[622],{"id":623,"_uid":624,"type":625,"_editable":626,"component":627,"fixed_height":628,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":628,"fixed_height_tablet":628},"22846237","i-0b90bee5-a470-46ed-b8a3-d0839d06a6e5","visualisation","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-0b90bee5-a470-46ed-b8a3-d0839d06a6e5\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","ContentFlourish","",{"type":579,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":584},"Prior to the ban, Benchmark estimated global stock levels were at 119kt (cobalt contained)— sufficient material to cover the initial four-month period, but not enough to cover a significantly longer ban. An extension would tighten supply availability as stocks dwindle, driving prices higher over the remainder of the year.",{"type":579,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":584},"Nevertheless, in this scenario, the cobalt market remains structurally oversupplied in 2025, albeit at a surplus level lower than the previous year.",{"type":601,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"level":603,"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":584},"Scenario 2: Production quota",{"type":579,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":584},"In the second scenario, the DRC government imposes production quotas – likely to be based on 2024 production levels (although below 100%). This would shift the cobalt market far closer to a rebalancing in 2025, setting the stage for structural deficits from 2027 onwards as ex-DRC operations struggle to ramp up supply sufficiently quickly to meet growing battery demand. ",{"type":579,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":584},"However, higher prices resulting from the emergence of supply deficits could trigger demand destruction in the medium-term. By pushing up prices of NCM battery chemistries, quotas could result in accelerated adoption of cobalt-free chemistries in the late 2020s, especially in Western markets.","Midway into the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) four-month ban on cobalt exports, the cobalt market is awaiting further clarity on the government’s next course of action. The ban—designed to prop up prices that had fallen to historic lows by early 2025, thus depriving the government of vital revenues—had an immediate and significant impact: cobalt […]",[656],{"slug":567,"name":568,"content":657},{"job_title":570,"image":658,"bio":573,"linkedin":574},{"filename":572},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"814e0a14-9a4b-493a-9864-1f94c4b3fcc8\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[662,664,667,670],{"slug":663,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":665,"name":666},"copper","Copper",{"slug":668,"name":669},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":671,"name":672},"geopolitics","Geopolitics","private",{"id":49,"alt":628,"name":628,"focus":628,"title":628,"source":628,"filename":675,"copyright":628,"fieldtype":676,"meta_data":677,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/cc962f2397/bm-drc-flag.jpg","asset",{"alt":628,"title":628,"source":628,"copyright":628},"Apr 25, 2025","25th April 2025",[],[],1790957424672]