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Greatest Prize of All 2.0","the-greatest-prize-of-all-2-0","article/the-greatest-prize-of-all-2-0",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":653,"featured":50,"reporter":654,"_editable":658,"component":659,"seo_title":553,"categories":660,"visibility":667,"author_company":49,"featured_image":668,"seo_description":653,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":673,"formattedArticleDate":674},"4c2c5175-c15c-40af-84c3-dcd082831265","2017-04-19 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,615,620,625,630,635,640,645,650],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"In 1939, Standard Oil discovered the world’s largest oil deposit in the Saudi Arabian desert. At the time it was described as the “single greatest prize in all history”. Nearly 80 years later, as energy, automotive and technology industries converge, Gianni Kovacevic looks at the potential for this discovery to be eclipsed.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"In the mid-1930s Standard Oil of California had won the right to explore and drill for oil in the Saudi Arabian desert by paying the hefty sum of $275,000. The more Middle East dominant British had declined the opportunity, citing there was no oil to be found. As it would turn out, a tremendous amount of oil was discovered. So in March of 1939 Harold Ickes, the US Secretary of the Interior, dispatched Everette DeGolyer, America’s foremost geologist, to assess the discovery and provide a detailed report as to the potential of the new discovery. It would not be necessary, for the message back to the United States would not need pages of details, rather, DeGolyer and his team would proclaim, “the oil in this region was the single greatest prize in all history.”",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"If the discovery of hundreds of billions of barrels of oil could be the preeminent single thing ever discovered, what then, could ever eclipse it? Rendering a goodly portion of the remaining oil redundant.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"In a recent declaration, British Petroleum estimated that there are 2.6 Trillion barrels of recoverable oil using current technology. They went on to suggest that this was more than twice the cumulative global oil demand to 2050 under most scenarios. Scenarios? Perhaps the biggest issue with prognosticators, especially the ones who live in StaticVille, is in their attempt to make guesses about products that have yet to be invented.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"The accelerated adoption of electric vehicles (EV’s) will increasingly be led by consumers with their natural desire to want to own the best available form of transportation. Yet, most of society, including a gaggle of forecasters, continue to assume that a broad offering when it comes to EV’s is something that will occur in the distant future.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"In a 2016 study, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) asked a large sample of people if they could, or would, switch to driving a full-electric car. As one might expect, the vast majority of respondents answered “no” applying all the well-publicised rational. “Range anxiety.” “Lack of charging stations.” “Cost.”, “Reliability.” “Inconvenience,” and the like. What most people did not realise, is that the same study monitored their movements through the GPS in their smart phone. It turned out that 87% of those questioned could easily navigate their daily activities using today’s EV technology.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"There are other big developments for consumers and industry alike to consider. Big Auto is well aware that Big Tech is encroaching on their territory. There are other pressures, such as mandated efficiency standards, and the stark reality that millennials around the world are no longer lining up to obtain their drivers licence. These many factors are collectively working like a pincer to capsize the entire automotive industry. Chrysler’s charismatic former CEO, Lee Iacocca, once said, “lead, follow or get out of the way.”",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":579},"The fourteen companies that make-up Big Auto control 54 major automobile brands and they have indeed chosen to lead and follow. By the model year 2020, almost all of them will have some offering for consumers in the full-electric space. By 2025 the offering could be a staggering surprise for even the most optimistic EV proponent. Why? The consumer effect.",{"type":574,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":579},"If we can accept that most of society has yet to actually experience a well made electric car, can we acknowledge that as it accelerates, consumer behaviour should force the direction that the automotive industry will take? Until now, the Tesla brand has been the market leader and unless someone is in that price segment, or, has a friend who owns one, they would not have witnessed the convenience, comfort and cool factor that EV’s provide.",{"type":574,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":579},"Let us look at the probabilities when in the not-so-distant future, two suburban neighbours purchase two similar automobiles – a mid-sized EV and a comparable internal combustion engine (ICE). Admittedly, the EV will likely have a larger price tag. However, there is a difference between “price” and “cost” as every Zig Ziglar fan would know. Future maintenance obligations with EV’s are negligible as there are few fail points and a limited number of moving parts to service in the electric drive train compared to the hundreds of moving parts in an ICE. I do not have the courage to guess what the resale value will be on an ever-increasing fleet of global EV’s. I can, however, strongly suggest that there should be robust demand for these technologically advanced cars, especially as they become more available, recognised as more reliable and inevitably more desirable. Not to mention the savings in fuelling an EV over hundreds of thousands of kilometres.",{"type":574,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"Incumbent automotive manufacturers that continue to make undesirable products could literally be subjecting their entire business to hostile activity, not from their peer group, rather from Big Tech. As they strive to remain current they are already shifting their EV product pipeline into high gear. Volkswagen has suggested that 10% of sales will be full electric by 2025. What happens when they discover that the greatest consumer demand, for new and used vehicles, is coming from their EV offering?",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"On November 18, 2016, when Elon Musk demonstrated the solar roof was in my opinion the updated version of The Greatest Prize In All History. Tesla’s merger with Solar City had created many negative page-one headlines, yet it was approved by an 85% margin. Pundits dismiss the novelty. Analysts say the economics do not work. Incumbents, there are more than a few that are profoundly disrupted by the circuit Musk demonstrated, are brushing the whole episode off to the side-lines of science fiction.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"It does indeed come down to novelty, economics and science fiction. The future is now. Over five million roofs are constructed or renovated new each year in The United States. The basic idea that Tesla is trying to articulate to consumers and investors alike, is that it is possible for a residence or business to become energy self-sufficient, today. Obviously to install a solar roof, a back-up battery and purchase a brand new Tesla Model S is not for every consumer, today. But the train of thinking that believes it will never reach the mainstream is only for those who wish to remain in StaticVille. Fortunately, for all of humanity there is an army of people around the world who live in ProgressVille.",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"Six years ago, there was no Tesla Model S. The efficiency of solar panels was just turning the commercially viable corner. The shale oil renaissance had just begun. Back-up battery systems were R&D projects (they still are). Investors thought of green energy projects as white elephants. Islands around the world could never imagine that they could one day be energy self-sufficient.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"The tiny French island of Saint Barthelemy generates electricity using diesel fuel – most islands do. It is now possible for places like St. Barths to implement medium term plans where the only place on the island that consumes diesel fuel, would be in the back-up to the back-up in the local hospital electricity generator. These islands have no interest to import oil products. Out of nowhere, and due to overwhelming technological progress, places all over the world can begin to implement the strategies to wean themselves off of inconvenience (fossil fuels) and towards self-sufficiency (modern electrical systems).",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[],"In 1939, Standard Oil discovered the world’s largest oil deposit in the Saudi Arabian desert. At the time it was described as the “single greatest prize in all history”. Nearly 80 years later, as energy, automotive and technology industries converge, Gianni Kovacevic looks at the potential for this discovery to be eclipsed. In the mid-1930s […]",[655],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":656},{"job_title":565,"image":657,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"4c2c5175-c15c-40af-84c3-dcd082831265\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[661,664],{"slug":662,"name":663},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":665,"name":666},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":669,"name":669,"focus":669,"title":669,"source":669,"filename":670,"copyright":669,"fieldtype":671,"meta_data":672,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/f1aa14c8d3/bm-screen-shot-2017-04-19-at-155727.png","asset",{"alt":669,"title":669,"source":669,"copyright":669},"Apr 19, 2017","19th April 2017",[],[],1790147628470]