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New Great Game – disruption is commodities & geopolitics","the-new-great-game","article/the-new-great-game",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":578,"featured":50,"reporter":772,"_editable":776,"component":777,"seo_title":553,"categories":778,"visibility":785,"author_company":49,"featured_image":786,"seo_description":578,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":791,"formattedArticleDate":792},"7dc3705f-892a-479e-9acc-9eed7ff90832","2016-05-12 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,597,602,607,612,619,624,629,634,641,646,651,658,663,670,675,678,683,688,695,702,709,716,723,728,735,740,745,752,757,762,769],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"How disruption in commodities, geopolitics, and macroeconomics converge to create opportunities.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"In the 19th century, geopolitical tensions were at the fore as Great Britain and Russia jockeyed for position in much of Central Asia with an eye on protecting British interests in India.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"At risk was control of land and sea routes for trade. Ultimately, other countries including China, Afghanistan, and some in Europe would be drawn in and would set the stage for geopolitical rivalries which still exist today.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593,595],{"text":594,"type":579},"This geopolitical chess match became known as The Great Game, a phrase coined by Arthur Conolly, a British intelligence officer in India at the time. Control of landn and sea meant not only economic security, but also the ability to project economic and political power far beyond one’s borders.",{"text":596,"type":579},"\nThe common belief that the sun “never set on the British Empire” was at risk.",{"type":574,"attrs":598,"content":599},{"textAlign":49},[600],{"text":601,"type":579},"About the same time (late 19th Century) in Germany, a self-taught engineer named Ferdinand Porsche built what is widely believed to be the first electric vehicle.",{"type":574,"attrs":603,"content":604},{"textAlign":49},[605],{"text":606,"type":579},"Mr. Porsche wouldn’t found his famous automobile company until 1948. He could have hardly realized it at the time, but this invention would be the eventual catalyst for the emergence of a “new” Great Game.",{"type":574,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":579},"However, today it isn’t countries that are the main players and it isn’t trade routes that are at stake. The new players are companies and what is at stake is market share for mobility and continued quality enhancement of life.",{"type":613,"attrs":614,"content":616},"heading",{"level":615,"textAlign":49},3,[617],{"text":618,"type":579},"Globalisation, Urbanisation, Convergence",{"type":574,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":579},"As trade routes have proliferated, trends such as globalisation, urbanisation, and technological progress have combined to enhance the living standards of hundreds of millions of people. This phenomenon, popularized by Nobel laureate Michael Spence, is also known as Convergence.",{"type":574,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":579},"The chart below from the World Bank shows Convergence in action as urbanisation in the emerging world over the past 50 years has easily outpaced the urbanisation in the West. It is widely believed that a society is fully urbanised when the percentage of city dwellers reaches 80%. Obviously countries like China and India still have some catching up to do.",{"type":574,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":579},"There is no guarantee that they will converge any time soon. Threats like the “middle income trap” may delay this, but even coming close dictates increased raw material demands and environmental stresses.",{"type":574,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637,639],{"text":638,"type":579},"This implies that sustainability should be ranked as a driving macro force",{"text":640,"type":579},"\ngoing forward.",{"type":574,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":579},"Global population growth truly took off when the steam engine was introduced, which demonstrates what can happen to quality of life when macro forces such as technology and demographics converge.",{"type":574,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":579},"The invention of the steam engine set the stage for an explosion in population and living standards, though there were other factors at play as well.",{"type":574,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654,656],{"text":655,"type":579},"A final way to examine this phenomenon is to ascertain how quickly various",{"text":657,"type":579},"\ntechnologies are being adopted globally (see chart: Pace of disruption changes exponentially).",{"type":574,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661],{"text":662,"type":579},"Obviously, the invention of Candy Crush Saga does not hold the equivalent benefits to humanity that the invention of the telephone did (it’s quite possibly detrimental if you’ve ever played it), but the pace and ubiquity of technology in a connected world is undeniable.",{"type":574,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666,668],{"text":667,"type":579},"The overall assessment is that technology is a force for good. This",{"text":669,"type":579},"\nspeed has given the theme of disruptive technologies its prominence in recent years.",{"type":574,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":579},"Before delving into what the future might look like as the new Great Game unfolds, it makes sense to briefly look at the current macroeconomic backdrop. This can help provide insight into how companies can move forward to gain market share and build out supply chains.",{"type":574,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":613,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"level":615,"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":579},"Drowning or Waving?",{"type":574,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":579},"No commentary on economic growth over the last decades would be complete without an analysis of China, whose economic reforms have lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and ignited the greatest urban migration in human history.",{"type":574,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691,693],{"text":692,"type":579},"It is now widely believed that China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 was the spark which ignited the commodity super cycle,",{"text":694,"type":579},"\nlasting from roughly 2001 to 2011. During this time, prices of almost all commodities – hard and soft – took off with a relatively brief intermission in 2008.",{"type":574,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698,700],{"text":699,"type":579},"The repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis were blunted by central",{"text":701,"type":579},"\nbanks that flooded the world with liquidity and debt to re-ignite growth. The results are in the accompanying chart, Global Stock of Debt Outstanding.",{"type":574,"attrs":703,"content":704},{"textAlign":49},[705,707],{"text":706,"type":579},"As a result of the market’s belief in indefinitely higher resource prices,",{"text":708,"type":579},"\ncompanies all along the mining supply chain, poured billions of dollars into capital expenditures and levered up balance sheets to take advantage.",{"type":574,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"textAlign":49},[712,714],{"text":713,"type":579},"Many resource prices peaked in 2011 and, as China’s economy has begun to slow, this has placed an effective “lid” on commodity prices. The capital poured into mining projects has resulted in write offs and, worse, excess production capacity which must be worked through or written off to renew the",{"text":715,"type":579},"\ncommodity cycle.",{"type":574,"attrs":717,"content":718},{"textAlign":49},[719,721],{"text":720,"type":579},"As a result, much of the global economy now suffers from excess supply, muted demand, and a large debt overhang. These all act as an impediment to",{"text":722,"type":579},"\ngrowth and, when combined, are profoundly deflationary in nature. The recent 16-year low in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is a painful reminder of the cyclical nature of the commodities sector and its effects on the global economy.",{"type":574,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":579},"If there is a silver lining, it is that there is a difference between “good” and “bad” deflation. It would appear that supply chains can benefit from the “good” deflation of lower raw materials prices. Downward pricing pressure can effectively “deflate” the value of end products such as lithium ion batteries or associated products.",{"type":574,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[731,733],{"text":732,"type":579},"While technological advances are also responsible for this cost deflation, lower raw materials prices can tend to filter throughout the value",{"text":734,"type":579},"\nchain.",{"type":574,"attrs":736,"content":737},{"textAlign":49},[738],{"text":739,"type":579},"With respect to energy generation and mobility, this thesis seems to be accurate when one looks at the prices of solar power and of lithium ion batteries, both experiencing dramatic decreases in cost (per watt and per kilowatt hour).",{"type":574,"attrs":741,"content":742},{"textAlign":49},[743],{"text":744,"type":579},"Since 2000, lithium-ion battery costs per kWh have fallen by a CAGR of 14% per year by some estimates. Technology and lower raw material prices have themselves converged to make a new energy paradigm a reality.",{"type":574,"attrs":746,"content":747},{"textAlign":49},[748,750],{"text":749,"type":579},"Given mean reversion in raw materials prices and increased access to cheap",{"text":751,"type":579},"\ntechnology such as personal electronics, it would appear that our lives are improving at a faster pace.",{"type":574,"attrs":753,"content":754},{"textAlign":49},[755],{"text":756,"type":579},"But is this trend set to continue? This is dependent on a number of factors including global financial stability.",{"type":574,"attrs":758,"content":759},{"textAlign":49},[760],{"text":761,"type":579},"However, other factors are more difficult to manage. These include demographics and productivity. Demographic changes can take decades to appear, and can work against a societies’ growth rate (think about Japan) just as they can work in favor of it (much of Africa).",{"type":574,"attrs":763,"content":764},{"textAlign":49},[765,767],{"text":766,"type":579},"As global lifestyle convergence continues, there is one engine of growth",{"text":768,"type":579},"\nin particular which should be a priority for policy makers and business leaders regardless of where you reside: productivity.",{"type":574,"attrs":770,"content":771},{"textAlign":49},[],[773],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":774},{"job_title":565,"image":775,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"7dc3705f-892a-479e-9acc-9eed7ff90832\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[779,782],{"slug":780,"name":781},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":783,"name":784},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":787,"name":787,"focus":787,"title":787,"source":787,"filename":788,"copyright":787,"fieldtype":789,"meta_data":790,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/8dfd24bd6e/bm-apple-campus.jpg","asset",{"alt":787,"title":787,"source":787,"copyright":787},"May 12, 2016","12th May 2016",[],[],1792773949387]