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New Oil","the-new-oil","article/the-new-oil",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":886,"featured":50,"reporter":887,"_editable":891,"component":892,"seo_title":553,"categories":893,"visibility":900,"author_company":49,"featured_image":901,"seo_description":886,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":905,"formattedArticleDate":906},"6b3adbdd-481e-4432-a32b-f1a741bff4f9","2018-08-13 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,619,624,629,634,643,648,653,658,663,668,675,680,685,690,695,700,705,710,715,722,726,731,736,741,746,751,756,761,766,771,776,781,786,791,796,801,806,811,816,821,826,831,836,841,846,851,856,861,866,871,876,881],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence looks at how the oil industry is developing closer ties to the lithium supply chain.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"It is important to state that lithium is nothing like oil. It’s not liquid, or black, it’s rarely shipped in barrels, and it’s not even a source of energy. Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) is a 215,000 tonne per year market while oil is a 34 billion barrels a year market – the resources are measured differently. The figure for oil is so large that is typically measured daily, which was 93 million barrels every day in 2017.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"In 2017, the value of lithium production was between $3-5 billion USD. The value of lithium production is dwarfed by oil, which was valued at approximately $1,800 billion in 2017.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"Despite being two extremes of the ‘commodity’ spectrum, lithium and oil have become closer bedfellows over the last two years.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"BP recognises relevance of lithium prices",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"In June BP published its annual Statistical Review of World Energy. This was the first time that the oil industry had acknowledged lithium and electric battery raw materials. This prompted us to look at how oil majors are moving to new energy sources, which brings their businesses into the lithium supply chain.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"The oil industry major’s energy reports and insights are some of the world’s most anticipated pieces of research. They consist of multiple bodies of work produced by world class analysts each year and set the tone for not only the oil industry’s direction but have also significant sway on government policy.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613,615,617],{"text":614,"type":579},"BP admitted that its energy reports needed to adapt to the changing needs of their customers and as a result cited a lithium price from ",{"text":616,"type":579},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence",{"text":618,"type":579}," – the lithium industry’s reference price provider.",{"type":574,"attrs":620,"content":621},{"textAlign":49},[622],{"text":623,"type":579},"“While the subject of lithium has been on the radar of Big Oil in recent years, this is the first-time lithium has been publicly acknowledged by the oil industry. We have entered a new era for commodities,” Simon Moores, Managing Director of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said.",{"type":574,"attrs":625,"content":626},{"textAlign":49},[627],{"text":628,"type":579},"The report cited Benchmark’s Lithium Carbonate, FOB, South America price. This is  one of Benchmark’s most commonly cited lithium prices.",{"type":574,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":579},"“A key challenge for the Statistical Review is that it needs to adapt to the changing needs of you, our customers,” BP’s Group Chief Economist, Spencer Dale, said in the report. “One of the questions I am most often asked is whether the available supplies of raw materials used to produce batteries for electric cars could act as a constraint on the speed with which they grow. That question was one of the reasons why we included a new section in this year’s Statistical Review on ‘Key Materials for the Changing Energy System’, including data on cobalt and lithium, which are used in the production of batteries for electric cars,” he added.",{"type":574,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"type":638,"attrs":639},"image",{"id":49,"alt":640,"src":641,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":642},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/9d48e309b5/bm-bp-economist-spencer-dale.jpg",{},{"type":574,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":49},[646],{"text":647,"type":579},"BP Group’s Chief Economist, Spencer DaleCredit: BP",{"type":574,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651],{"text":652,"type":579},"Shortly after publishing its 2018 statistical review, BP announced that on 28 June 2018 it had acquired Chargemaster – now be known as BP Chargemaster – the UK’s largest electric vehicle charging company. Tufan Erginbilgic, chief executive, BP Downstream, said: “bringing together the UK’s leading fuel retailer and its largest charging company, BP Chargemaster will deliver a truly differentiated offer for the country’s growing number of electric vehicle owners.”",{"type":574,"attrs":654,"content":655},{"textAlign":49},[656],{"text":657,"type":579},"“At BP we believe that fast and convenient charging is critical to support the successful adoption of electric vehicles. Combining BP’s and Chargemaster’s complementary expertise, experience and assets is an important step towards offering fast and ultra-fast charging at BP sites across the UK and to BP becoming the leading provider of energy to low carbon vehicles, on the road or at home.”",{"type":574,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661],{"text":662,"type":579},"There has been a flurry of activity in the EV and battery space from BP this year so far. In January 2018 BP Ventures invested $5 million in FreeWire Technologies Inc. The US based company manufactures mobile EV rapid charging systems. BP will be trialling the technology at certain sites In the UK and Europe during 2018.",{"type":574,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":579},"BP made further investments in battery markets in May, with an investment of $20 million in StoreDot — a lithium ion battery developer specialising in ultra-fast charging technology. The company is currently developing a new type of EV battery which they expect will charge in the time it takes to fill up a car.",{"type":574,"attrs":669,"content":670},{"textAlign":49},[671],{"type":638,"attrs":672},{"id":49,"alt":640,"src":673,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":674},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/9e56b21a51/bm-42139557505-52c86286f7-z.jpg",{},{"type":574,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":579},"Caption: BP recently invested in StoreDot, which specialise in lithium ion ultra-fast charging technology. Credit: BP.",{"type":574,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":579},"Erginbilgic said of the purchase “with our growing portfolio of charging infrastructure and technologies, we’re excited by our opportunities to develop truly innovative EV customer offers. We are committed to be the fuel provider of choice – no matter what car our customers drive.”",{"type":574,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":579},"Only two weeks before this purchase BP and fund manager NIO Capital announced that they had signed a memorandum of understanding “to establish a long-term partnership to jointly explore opportunities in advanced mobility in China and internationally.”",{"type":574,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":579},"Although BP has recognised lithium’s importance to the supply chain and made moves into the EV space, it has not made a move to secure supply for itself. EV makers and battery producers have showed signs of interest in sourcing lithium directly. In May, Tesla signed a three-year lithium supply deal to purchase lithium Kidman Resources. However, BP and other oil majors are further removed from the supply chain and it is unclear whether they would invest directly in lithium.",{"type":574,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":49},[698],{"text":699,"type":579},"Shell announced in April that it would increase spending to $1-2 billion per year through 2018-2020 into its New Energies business. This remains a small proportion of the estimated $25-30 billion of its planned annual investment. A recent acquisition in May saw Shell Ventures invest in German battery maker Sonnen. Before that 2017 Shell purchased NewMotion, one of the largest EV charging networks in Europe with over 30,000 charging points for EVs in Western Europe.",{"type":574,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":49},[703],{"text":704,"type":579},"On the purchase of NewMotion, at its 2018 AGM Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden said “Shell is positioning itself to take the opportunities in the global energy transition…. we will move in step with society, and with our customers, as the world advances towards Paris. And we will do it in a way that adds value to the company and its shareholders.”",{"type":574,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"textAlign":49},[708],{"text":709,"type":579},"Shell’s moves suggest the business is pursuing a future outside of oil. However, in a speech May 2018 van Beurden was cautious on renewable energy: “if we use renewables to power everything with a plug in the world right now, about 80% of our energy demand remains. That is why it is not a good idea to say energy companies should stop extracting gas or oil from the earth immediately. And this will be true for some time.”",{"type":574,"attrs":711,"content":712},{"textAlign":49},[713],{"text":714,"type":579},"He went on to say that “with transport, the limits of electricity quickly become clear. Everyone knows you can drive electrically, but I also think everyone understands we cannot use a battery to launch a rocket. Even if the rocket is used to place an electric car in our solar system. “",{"type":574,"attrs":716,"content":717},{"textAlign":49},[718],{"type":638,"attrs":719},{"id":49,"alt":640,"src":720,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":721},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/29b10b1515/bm-385660158-0fcba61a9c-z.jpg",{},{"type":574,"attrs":723,"content":724},{"textAlign":49},[725],{"text":679,"type":579},{"type":574,"attrs":727,"content":728},{"textAlign":49},[729],{"text":730,"type":579},"“People who want to use batteries to transport heavy freight over long distances on the road or over water, currently have a choice: they can transport the batteries but have no room for the freight, or fill the ship or truck with goods but have no room for the batteries needed to move them.” Beurden has doubts – and he’s not alone — that current battery technology is limited in its application.",{"type":574,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":579},"Total SA, the French oil producer, recently bolstered its foothold in the battery industry by purchasing a stake US based in Ionic Materials, a developer of next generation solid state battery materials.",{"type":574,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"textAlign":49},[739],{"text":740,"type":579},"To many, solid-state batteries are seen as lithium ion’s successor —with energy density expected to increase three-to-four-fold and for charging times to be significantly reduced.",{"type":574,"attrs":742,"content":743},{"textAlign":49},[744],{"text":745,"type":579},"This is its second move into the battery market after it purchased French battery producer Saft, for $1 billion in 2016. In May Saft announced that it would be investing over €200 million in pan-European project to research and develop solid-state batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":747,"content":748},{"textAlign":49},[749],{"text":750,"type":579},"This follows on from an agreement between Saft, Belgium based Solvay and Germany’s Siemens and Manz to work together on solid-state. Funding is split between Saft and the European Union, which  is keen to develop Europe’s battery technology capabilities.",{"type":574,"attrs":752,"content":753},{"textAlign":49},[754],{"text":755,"type":579},"Total clearly has ambitions for its battery investments but it isn’t clear what Total intends to do with these investments. It could be that Total is looking to complement its existing solar power businesses —SunPower and Total Solar —with enhanced energy storage capabilities. But their holdings Total could also support a move in the EV space, especially considering how changes downstream would affect its oil business.",{"type":574,"attrs":757,"content":758},{"textAlign":49},[759],{"text":760,"type":579},"While BP, Shell, and Total have shown a keenness to diversify into new energy, Exxon are sticking to their bread and butter. A split is emerging between big oil companies between those that are diversifying into new energy and others, like Exxon, which are doubling down on oil.",{"type":574,"attrs":762,"content":763},{"textAlign":49},[764],{"text":765,"type":579},"In January 2018, Exxon’s Chairman and CEO, Darren Woods, announced in a blog post that Exxon “to invest more than $50 billion over the next five years” in particular Exxon “will be investing billions of dollars to increase oil production in the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico”.",{"type":574,"attrs":767,"content":768},{"textAlign":49},[769],{"text":770,"type":579},"These oil investments are not isolated and Exxon is looking to also increase oil production in Guyana, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea and Brazil. Investors are pressuring energy companies to adapt their business models and to provide clearer reporting on climate change.",{"type":574,"attrs":772,"content":773},{"textAlign":49},[774],{"text":775,"type":579},"For example, in 2017 62% of ExxonMobil’s shareholders voted for the company to produce an annual report on climate change and government policies to reduce carbon emissions.",{"type":574,"attrs":777,"content":778},{"textAlign":49},[779],{"text":780,"type":579},"Kathy Mulvey of the Union of Concerned Scientists noted Exxon’s move towards disclosing climate risks but also said in a December 2017 statement that “ExxonMobil is still investing aggressively in developing future reserves under the assumption that economies worldwide will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels”.",{"type":574,"attrs":782,"content":783},{"textAlign":49},[784],{"text":785,"type":579},"Investor activism is pushing big oil into finding alternative means of energy. Exxon is maintaining a more positive outlook for oil compared to its peers but there are signs of it shifting its position. After years of downplaying climate change risks, the company has acquiesced to shareholder demands and  published a report on the implications for the company of the policies to limit climate change.",{"type":574,"attrs":787,"content":788},{"textAlign":49},[789],{"text":790,"type":579},"Exxon is taking the position that although there is a move towards EVs and energy storage, demand for oil will continue to rise. Therefore, we’re unlikely to see Exxon paying much attention to lithium for foreseeable future.",{"type":574,"attrs":792,"content":793},{"textAlign":49},[794],{"text":795,"type":579},"It’s all been done before",{"type":574,"attrs":797,"content":798},{"textAlign":49},[799],{"text":800,"type":579},"This move towards new energy sources from big oil companies is nothing new. BP set up its subsidiary —BP Solar —in 1981, and as the name suggests, it specialised in manufacturing solar panels and was the world’s biggest manufacturer until selling its solar assets in 2011.",{"type":574,"attrs":802,"content":803},{"textAlign":49},[804],{"text":805,"type":579},"In 2000 Chevron acquired its renewable energy arm. However, Chevron sold the company in 2014 in order to focus “on supporting Chevron’s upstream and downstream business” —new energy didn’t fit the model.",{"type":574,"attrs":807,"content":808},{"textAlign":49},[809],{"text":810,"type":579},"From the late-1990s to mid-2000s Shell had consistently invested in solar and wind power, but in 2009 it suspended its investments in new energy as these were not seen as lucrative as other potential investments. Although BP has now recognised the relevance of lithium prices to the battery and",{"type":574,"attrs":812,"content":813},{"textAlign":49},[814],{"text":815,"type":579},"EV supply chain, it was Exxon who arguably first realised the potential lithium offered. Dr M. Stanley Whittingham created one of the first examples of the rechargeable lithium ion battery while working in an Exxon lab.",{"type":574,"attrs":817,"content":818},{"textAlign":49},[819],{"text":820,"type":579},"Last year, speaking at Benchmark’s 2017 Cathode conference, he went so far as to say that searching for R&D support for electrical storage based on lithium “was just like drilling oil wells” – an apt analogy.",{"type":574,"attrs":822,"content":823},{"textAlign":49},[824],{"text":825,"type":579},"Exxon continued to play a role in the lithium ion battery. In 2007 ExxonMobil Chemical and Tonen Chemical – its Japanese affiliate – announced that it had improved separator film technologies that would allow for lithium ion batteries to handle increased heat without failing. But in 2012 it sold its share of Tonen Chemical.",{"type":574,"attrs":827,"content":828},{"textAlign":49},[829],{"text":830,"type":579},"These are just some examples where oil companies have invested in new energy sources before abandoning those projects.",{"type":574,"attrs":832,"content":833},{"textAlign":49},[834],{"text":835,"type":579},"How do we know that oil companies won’t abandon their latest projects?",{"type":574,"attrs":837,"content":838},{"textAlign":49},[839],{"text":840,"type":579},"This time might be different. Mass EV adoption in the near future is likely. The success of EV startups like Tesla have forced traditional carmakers to increase their EV offering. Improvements in technology – particularly energy storage – have made electric cars a viable alternative to ICE vehicles. Additionally, climate change and environmental concerns are of continued importance to consumers, legislators and regulators alike.",{"type":574,"attrs":842,"content":843},{"textAlign":49},[844],{"text":845,"type":579},"Governments are joining the fray",{"type":574,"attrs":847,"content":848},{"textAlign":49},[849],{"text":850,"type":579},"There is also more interest in EVs from governments. Nowhere else is this so evident as in China, where government policy has been transforming the EV industry. This is likely to continue and as big international companies and countries start to take more interest in EVs the focus on lithium will only intensify.",{"type":574,"attrs":852,"content":853},{"textAlign":49},[854],{"text":855,"type":579},"As economies move further towards electrification of vehicles and new energy sources the demand for lithium will increase. Like oil, security of supply will become a political issue for governments across the world. Many of the twentieth century’s wars were fuelled by and fought over oil. Oil continues to be at the centre of international  politics today; any rise in tensions in the middle east typically affects oil prices. In the future lithium might play a similar role.",{"type":574,"attrs":857,"content":858},{"textAlign":49},[859],{"text":860,"type":579},"In fact,we are seeing instances of this now. The Chinese company Tianqi Lithium’s move to purchase 32% of Chile’s SQM was blocked by Chilean regulators. A petition was filed to block the purchase on the grounds that it would have given China too much dominance in the international lithium market. Chilean regulators have until August to decide their  course of action. The Chinese ambassador to Chile told a local newspaper that blocking the sale could “leave negative influences on development of economic and commercial relations between both countries.”",{"type":574,"attrs":862,"content":863},{"textAlign":49},[864],{"text":865,"type":579},"China is making a significant move towards wide-scale EV adoption, which requires vast quantities of lithium. As other countries realise their need to secure a lithium supply, international disagreements are likely to continue and perhaps even intensify.",{"type":574,"attrs":867,"content":868},{"textAlign":49},[869],{"text":870,"type":579},"Compared to the oil market the lithium market is small and in its infancy. But demand for lithium will only grow while it’s expected that the oil market will peak in the next two decades. There are also plenty of signs that the lithium market is beginning to mature. There is impetus from big companies and governments to secure supplies of lithium, echoing the early days of oil. It’s also been reported that lithium is on the verge of being exchange traded.",{"type":574,"attrs":872,"content":873},{"textAlign":49},[874],{"text":875,"type":579},"Rather than a fundamental shift away from oil it is likely that these moves into battery energy storage are a hedge against declining oil use. And not all companies have made this move — Exxon remains unconvinced and is putting its resources into oil. Whether the investments in new energy are simply diversification or the start of a paradigm shift will become evident in the coming years.",{"type":574,"attrs":877,"content":878},{"textAlign":49},[879],{"text":880,"type":579},"Big oil is very much at the downstream end of the lithium market and we are only starting to see it recognising the relevance of lithium to new energy.",{"type":574,"attrs":882,"content":883},{"textAlign":49},[884],{"text":885,"type":579},"Although the industry is split, those who are investing in EV charging networks and battery energy storage may soon follow BP and recognise lithium prices.","Benchmark Mineral Intelligence looks at how the oil industry is developing closer ties to the lithium supply chain. It is important to state that lithium is nothing like oil. It’s not liquid, or black, it’s rarely shipped in barrels, and it’s not even a source of energy. Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) is a 215,000 tonne per year market while oil is […]",[888],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":889},{"job_title":565,"image":890,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"6b3adbdd-481e-4432-a32b-f1a741bff4f9\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[894,897],{"slug":895,"name":896},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":898,"name":899},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":640,"name":640,"focus":640,"title":640,"source":640,"filename":902,"copyright":640,"fieldtype":903,"meta_data":904,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/8439882f2c/bm-istock-691599104.jpeg","asset",{"alt":640,"title":640,"source":640,"copyright":640},"Aug 13, 2018","13th August 2018",[],[],1789982602033]