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POINT","tipping-point","article/tipping-point",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":743,"featured":50,"reporter":744,"_editable":748,"component":749,"seo_title":553,"categories":750,"visibility":757,"author_company":49,"featured_image":758,"seo_description":743,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":763,"formattedArticleDate":764},"759d47c2-6dd4-4198-8243-94daaa356e79","2019-05-09 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,597,606,611,618,623,628,641,646,651,662,670,677,682,693,698,703,708,713,718,725,730,735],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"In March, Benchmark’s Simon Moores spoke at the Prospectors and Developers Association Conference (PDAC) in Toronto. Here, Paul Harris covers the key talking points of a panel discussion on the electrification revolution.","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"BY PAUL HARRIS",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588,590,595],{"text":589,"type":579},"The price mechanism will find a way to combat mineral commodity scarcity and ensure materials are available for the growth in electric vehicle (EV) batteries despite the apparent scarcity of some metal commodities, according to participants on the ",{"text":591,"type":579,"marks":592},"Electrification Revolution: EVs, Energy Storage and Commodity Inputs ",[593],{"type":594},"italic",{"text":596,"type":579},"panel at the Prospectors and Developers Association Conference (PDAC) in Toronto, Canada in March.",{"type":574,"attrs":598,"content":599},{"textAlign":49},[600,602,604],{"text":601,"type":579},"Panellists Guy Bourassa, President and CEO of Nemaska Lithium; Ted Graham, Head of Open Innovation at General Motors; Anthony Milewski, Chairman and CEO of Cobalt27; MacMurray Whale, Alternative Energy & Industrial Technology Analyst at Cormark Securities; and Simon Moores, Managing Director of ",{"text":603,"type":579},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence ",{"text":605,"type":579},"agreed the 2020-2025 period looks set to be the tipping point in the uptake of EVs.",{"type":574,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":579},"“Price parity is within hundreds of dollars. Recharge time has dropped to 20 minutes. Range can cover 99% of North American journeys now,” said Cobalt27’s Milewski. “We are getting closer to cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles. We have reduced customer anxiety around demand for longer range vehicles and quick charge times,” said GM’s Graham.",{"type":574,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":49},[614,616],{"text":615,"type":579},"Moores said that a wave of battery megafactories is pushing down the cost of batteries and bringing cost parity ever closer. “Over the last three-and-a-half years since Elon Musk and Tesla pioneered the rise of the battery megafactory, there are today 71 in the pipeline with over half of those in China and 45 in production last year. This is driving the confidence of the automakers that batteries",{"text":617,"type":579},"will be available for their production lines,” said Moores, adding, “Tesla produces batteries for less than US$100 per kilowatt hour, a massive decrease from two or three years ago. When other automakers can produce at the same price level the whole industry will change dramatically. We are probably only two years away from that,” he said.",{"type":574,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":579},"But while there was agreement that EVs are reaching a sustainable scale there were mixed opinions on how the mining industry can rise to the challenge of scarcity of key battery materials.",{"type":574,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":579},"Cobalt27’s Mileswki and Nemaska’s Bourassa shared a moment of harmony that would not last, agreeing that existing lithium producers are finding it hard to expand. “In their annual results lithium producers say they expect 20% growth in the market, but they also say that they will have 0% production growth,” commented Milewski. “Existing mines are not able to expand and there are qualification issues for new producers,” added Bourassa.",{"type":574,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631,633,635,637,639],{"text":632,"type":579},"Asked which commodities are of most concern from a supply viewpoint, the aspiring lithium producer naturally said lithium while",{"text":634,"type":579},"the cobalt company naturally said cobalt. ",{"text":636,"type":579},"Benchmark",{"text":638,"type":579},"’s Moores countered that the minerals sector tends to view the situation from its perspective while what really matters is what the car makers think. “From an industry investor supply side [comprising mining and chemical companies, and investors], lithium is seen as most challenging followed by nickel, cobalt and graphite. But, he added, “from a battery and",{"text":640,"type":579},"automaker perspective their worries are nickel, graphite anodes, lithium and cobalt.”",{"type":574,"attrs":642,"content":643},{"textAlign":49},[644],{"text":645,"type":579},"Milewski suggested this nuance allows stock promoters to sell a false story, namely that they are aiming to be suppliers of battery materials when in reality most of them that enter into production will supply precursor raw materials that can subsequently be converted into battery materials by another intermediate company. “There is a dislocation in the capital market as it takes a while for the education process to work through and for investors to understand this,” he said.",{"type":574,"attrs":647,"content":648},{"textAlign":49},[649],{"text":650,"type":579},"This aspect highlights that many investors and market-watchers from the minerals and metals part of the value chain do not really understand what they are looking at and the resulting confabulation of products with similar names (mineral raw materials versus specialty chemicals) makes working through the economics of up-and-coming mineral projects difficult.",{"type":574,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654,656,660],{"text":655,"type":579},"“Cobalt sulphate, nickel sulphate, lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and graphite anode are the critical supply focus rather than cobalt, nickel, graphite and lithium ",{"text":657,"type":579,"marks":658},"per se",[659],{"type":594},{"text":661,"type":579},",” said Milewski.",{"type":574,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665,667,668],{"text":666,"type":579},"“Materials are specialty chemicals. The middle step to turn raw materials into battery grade chemicals is the biggest step and the biggest bottleneck. For growth, the supply channels aren’t in place for what the battery makers need,” said ",{"text":636,"type":579},{"text":669,"type":579},"’s Moores.",{"type":574,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673,675],{"text":674,"type":579},"For Nemaska’s Bourassa, evidence of the lack of understanding of the market and the different",{"text":676,"type":579},"products can be seen in the fall in the lithium spot price over the past 12 months. “The lithium price has shown a strong decrease in the last 12 months, but I think it is artificial because it is dictated by analysts focusing on low-grade material out of China and not the high-grade material whose pricing hasn’t changed. The market will [eventually] realise there is a shortage of high-grade product,” he said. “The China spot price doesn’t translate into the price that the major producers get,” added Cormark’s Whale.",{"type":574,"attrs":678,"content":679},{"textAlign":49},[680],{"text":681,"type":579},"MATERIALS SUPPLY",{"type":574,"attrs":683,"content":684},{"textAlign":49},[685,687,691],{"text":686,"type":579},"A subsequent PDAC panel titled C",{"text":688,"type":579,"marks":689},"hile, Leader in Key Metals for E-Mobility ",[690],{"type":594},{"text":692,"type":579},"shed light on some of the potential material shortfalls coming. Figures shown by Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco, estimated that the amount of copper, lithium and cobalt going into EV production in 2018 was equivalent to 1%, 14% and 16% of their world production respectively. In 2030 that is forecast to change to 17-19% of copper production, 38-45% of lithium and 94-188% of cobalt.",{"type":574,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":579},"Such supply constraints are well recognised by industry participants but the debate on how the minerals exploration sector will resolve them produced a tense debate and profound disagreement, much to the delight of the packed auditorium.",{"type":574,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":579},"EV battery capacity is ramping up, but Moores questioned whether there is sufficient supply of battery materials for the megafactories to use. “Do the battery makers have the confidence that the raw materials are going to be there?” he asked.",{"type":574,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":579},"“Chronically illiquid capital markets are a big impediment for junior stocks in the broader EV/battery commodities market outside nickel,” said Cobalt27’s Milewski.",{"type":574,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":579},"“Stock values are discounting the price below what you need to have mines come on line. Something has to give because current commodity prices won’t see those projects being financed and built,” said Cormark’s Whale.",{"type":574,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716],{"text":717,"type":579},"Two separate viewpoints emerged as the debate advanced that refused to reconcile.",{"type":574,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721,723],{"text":722,"type":579},"“There is no way the supply chain can fulfil the expected demand. Car manufacturers will face a big wall very shortly as there won’t be the batteries to put in their cars. The difficulty to find and permit a mine, of being able to put in new production and qualify a product is not talked about,” commented Nemaska’s Bourassa, perhaps drawing on Nemaska’s recent experience of having to declare a massive C$350",{"text":724,"type":579},"million cost overrun as it builds its Whabouchi lithium mine in Quebec and Shawinigan processing plant in Ontario.",{"type":574,"attrs":726,"content":727},{"textAlign":49},[728],{"text":729,"type":579},"Cobalt27’s Milewski disagreed, placing his faith in the market price mechanism to produce a solution. “All commodities have a price to clear the trade. A wave of response will happen at a price and that may be substantially higher,” he countered, while observing, “China is going around the world securing the supply chain and the material is going straight back to China, which has a lower cost of capital, and they will do it,” he said.",{"type":574,"attrs":731,"content":732},{"textAlign":49},[733],{"text":734,"type":579},"As is often the case, timing is everything and with different parts of the EV value chain moving at very different velocities, market conditions are evolving in such a way that could result in more dramatic intervention down the line.",{"type":574,"attrs":736,"content":737},{"textAlign":49},[738,740,741],{"text":739,"type":579},"GM’s Graham commented that, “it takes 4.5 years to design and build a new EV from scratch,” while ",{"text":636,"type":579},{"text":742,"type":579},"’s Moores observed that, “it takes 18-24 months to build a new battery plant but 7-10 years to build a new mine. Can the industry supply chain rely on public markets to finance building out the supply chain? The answer is no. So, do the automakers get involved? Car companies can no longer rely in miners to get it done because they are not getting it done,” he posited before offering one possible outcome: “Big oil is watching these supply chains very closely. At some point they will get involved.”","In March, Benchmark’s Simon Moores spoke at the Prospectors and Developers Association Conference (PDAC) in Toronto. Here, Paul Harris covers the key talking points of a panel discussion on the electrification revolution. BY PAUL HARRIS The price mechanism will find a way to combat mineral commodity scarcity and ensure materials are available for the growth […]",[745],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":746},{"job_title":565,"image":747,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"759d47c2-6dd4-4198-8243-94daaa356e79\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[751,754],{"slug":752,"name":753},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":755,"name":756},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":759,"name":759,"focus":759,"title":759,"source":759,"filename":760,"copyright":759,"fieldtype":761,"meta_data":762,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/9e372d4eab/bm-11442896445-d06aafb4ea-o.jpg","asset",{"alt":759,"title":759,"source":759,"copyright":759},"May 09, 2019","9th May 2019",[],[],1792773943136]