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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":716,"relatedVideos":717},112467375172941,"44f8309d-f0f9-47f5-a0d1-87cc7a6c4419","US copper prices collapse after tariff exclusion for cathode imports ","us-copper-prices-collapse-after-tariff-exclusion-for-cathode-imports","article/us-copper-prices-collapse-after-tariff-exclusion-for-cathode-imports",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":553,"content":563,"excerpt":695,"featured":51,"reporter":696,"_editable":700,"component":701,"seo_title":543,"categories":702,"visibility":709,"author_company":49,"featured_image":710,"seo_description":695,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":714,"formattedArticleDate":715},"a2529296-3daf-4e94-ab44-fefb24d9add8","2025-07-31 00:00",[550],{"slug":551,"name":552},"usa","USA",[554],{"slug":555,"name":556,"content":557},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":558,"image":559,"bio":561,"linkedin":562},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":560},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":564,"content":565},"doc",[566,573,588,593,605,610,615,620,625,630,637,642,647,652,657,665,670,675,680,685,690],{"type":567,"attrs":568,"content":569},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[570],{"text":571,"type":572},"US copper prices dropped more than 20% following confirmation that the 50% copper tariff will not apply to imports of refined copper cathode, a move that shocked the market and ran counter to broader expectations. Instead, the tariff will only cover semi-finished products, such as copper piping and wires. ","text",{"type":567,"attrs":574,"content":575},{"textAlign":49},[576,578,586],{"text":577,"type":572},"In the months since the ",{"text":579,"type":572,"marks":580},"US initiated a Section 232 investigation into copper imports",[581],{"type":582,"attrs":583},"link",{"href":584,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":585},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/president-trump-orders-probe-into-copper-imports","url",{"text":587,"type":572},", large quantities of copper cathode were diverted to US warehouses to front load supply ahead of the anticipated tariff. This led to a substantial arbitrage between the CME and LME copper benchmarks.  ",{"type":567,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":572},"But yesterday’s announcement caused this arbitrage to collapse immediately – dropping from over $2,600/tonne to $99/tonne in the space of few hours, a 96% decline.  ",{"type":594,"attrs":595},"blok",{"id":596,"body":597},"da3f89e7-d6d2-46b1-8553-0c70f60713e1",[598],{"id":599,"_uid":600,"type":601,"_editable":602,"component":603,"fixed_height":604,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":604,"fixed_height_tablet":604},"24493139","i-908b5de3-689d-44f5-b3a6-7f4acaab4086","visualisation","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-908b5de3-689d-44f5-b3a6-7f4acaab4086\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","ContentFlourish","",{"type":567,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":572},"The LME copper price also declined to $9,540/tonne on Thursday morning, down 1.2% from the previous day. However, this was relatively minor compared to the volatility seen on the CME. ",{"type":567,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":572},"The news confounded market expectations and rendered months of front-loaded copper imports into the US a futile effort. The now-closed arbitrage and excess imports likely resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in ultimately unnecessary spending by US consumers and metal market participants. ",{"type":567,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":572},"“There’s been lots of working capital tied up for no reason,” said one miner source, noting that the expectation of tariffs had caused widespread market disorder. ",{"type":567,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623],{"text":624,"type":572},"US copper inventories are now at elevated levels. CME copper stocks stood at 256kt on July 31, up 165% since Trump announced the Section 232 probe into copper imports in late February. Sources also reported that off-exchange warehouse stocks are similarly high. ",{"type":567,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":572},"Much of the disruption stems from the US administration’s failure to clearly signal its intentions, which created months of uncertainty. Trade data shows the US has imported 680kt year-to-date—more than double the volume over the same period in 2024. ",{"type":631,"attrs":632,"content":634},"heading",{"level":633,"textAlign":49},4,[635],{"text":636,"type":572},"Tariff uncertainty ",{"type":567,"attrs":638,"content":639},{"textAlign":49},[640],{"text":641,"type":572},"US copper inflows have had global repercussions throughout 2025. Recent months have seen elevated European copper premiums and tight global supply, with tariff fears creating acute and artificial regional imbalances. ",{"type":567,"attrs":643,"content":644},{"textAlign":49},[645],{"text":646,"type":572},"Although uncertainty ahead of the official announcement kept the CME/LME arbitrage below 50% of LME copper’s value, many believed the tariff would apply to cathode. While some market players had speculated that it might only cover semi-finished products or exempt certain countries, the sharp drop in CME copper prices confirmed that markets broadly expected cathode to be included. ",{"type":567,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"textAlign":49},[650],{"text":651,"type":572},"The White House Fact Sheet also outlined several measures to support domestic refining capacity and reduce scrap exports. Notably, 25% of high-quality copper scrap produced in the US will now be required to be sold domestically. ",{"type":567,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655],{"text":656,"type":572},"Additionally, by 2029, 40% of all US copper concentrates, ores, and cathodes will need to be consumed domestically. In 2024, the US exported roughly half of its mined copper output. This new rule will likely force new mining projects, such as Rio Tinto’s Resolution Mine in Arizona, to consider building smelting capacity to remain compliant. ",{"type":594,"attrs":658},{"id":659,"body":660},"11204561-b458-4cdf-b2bc-fd6996e8c6d5",[661],{"id":662,"_uid":663,"type":601,"_editable":664,"component":603,"fixed_height":604,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":604,"fixed_height_tablet":604},"24493336","i-a8eaa733-5f5a-4ad9-bc7d-ba7f9a5f6dd7","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-a8eaa733-5f5a-4ad9-bc7d-ba7f9a5f6dd7\", \"id\": \"\"}-->",{"type":567,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":572},"Multiple sources acknowledged that while the announced measures are far more restrained than originally expected, they are ultimately more logical. ",{"type":567,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":572},"“[It’s] what makes more sense in the end,” said one trader source. ",{"type":567,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":572},"Market participants noted that replacing imported cathode would have posed a major challenge, and agreed that focusing on semi-finished products appears to be a more intelligent approach. ",{"type":567,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":572},"However, the announcement ultimately does little to address several of the core concerns that initiated the investigation. ",{"type":567,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688],{"text":689,"type":572},"“The United States has ample copper reserves, yet our smelting and refining capacity lags significantly behind global competitors,” the White House statement said. However, the new measures do little to resolve this issue. ",{"type":567,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":572},"One reason the announcement caught markets by surprise is that the measures announced fail to directly address the original challenges outlined in the Section 232 investigation. ","US copper prices dropped more than 20% following confirmation that the 50% copper tariff will not apply to imports of refined copper cathode, a move that shocked the market and ran counter to broader expectations. Instead, the tariff will only cover semi-finished products, such as copper piping and wires. 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