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Power Day unwrapped: 6 battery plants, unified cell format, cathode chemistry roadmap, anode materials, and supply chain strategy","vw-power-day-unwrapped-6-battery-plants-unified-cell-format-cathode-chemistry-roadmap-anode-materials-and-supply-chain-strategy","article/vw-power-day-unwrapped-6-battery-plants-unified-cell-format-cathode-chemistry-roadmap-anode-materials-and-supply-chain-strategy",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":566,"content":576,"excerpt":748,"featured":50,"reporter":749,"_editable":753,"component":754,"seo_title":553,"categories":755,"visibility":759,"author_company":49,"featured_image":760,"seo_description":748,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":765,"formattedArticleDate":766},"39b832a1-29ed-4c94-b4c8-b3704574290d","2021-03-22 00:00",[560,563],{"slug":561,"name":562},"europe","Europe",{"slug":564,"name":565},"volkswagen","Volkswagen",[567],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":570},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":571,"image":572,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":573},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":577,"content":578},"doc",[579,586,591,598,603,608,613,618,623,628,633,638,643,648,653,658,663,668,673,678,683,688,693,698,703,708,713,718,723,728,733,738,743],{"type":580,"attrs":581,"content":582},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":585},"Volkswagen’s (VW) Power Day saw the German automaker take its first major step in the battery arms race, committing to bring 240 GWh of capacity to Europe, outlining its cell format and chemistry plans and giving a glimpse of its supply chain strategy.","text",{"type":580,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589],{"text":590,"type":585},"Here, Benchmark assesses the key discussion points from VW’s announcements (and omissions) below.",{"type":592,"attrs":593,"content":595},"heading",{"level":594,"textAlign":49},4,[596],{"text":597,"type":585},"VW enters the battery arms race with 240 GWh plans for 2030",{"type":580,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":49},[601],{"text":602,"type":585},"VW outlined a road map to have six 40 GWh cell manufacturing plants with a total of 240 GWh of capacity by 2030. The company made clear that these plants could be operated either in partnership with battery cell manufacturers or directly by themselves, although it has yet to provide full details.",{"type":580,"attrs":604,"content":605},{"textAlign":49},[606],{"text":607,"type":585},"We know that two of the plants included in the 240 GWh figure are already under development through VW’s partnership with Northvolt – which it also holds an ownership share in.",{"type":580,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":585},"The first of these plants — the Northvolt Ett facility in Skellefteå, Sweden —  is due to enter first production in late 2021. As part of its Power Day announcements VW increased its commitment to a 10-year, $14 billion offtake from the facility for up to 40 GWh of cells annually beginning in 2023. It was confirmed that VW would increase its ownership share in Northvolt, which was previously estimated to be 20%.",{"type":580,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":585},"Northvolt has also sold its joint venture share of the Salzgitter, Germany, project to VW, due to come online in 2025. The Salzgitter project is therefore expected to be fully operated by VW, making it the company’s first step into battery production.",{"type":580,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":585},"VW’s 240 GWh capacity plan will require four additional plants not already in the pipeline. One of the new plants is set to be located in Western Europe, which Benchmark expects to be located in Spain, slated to enter operation in 2026.",{"type":580,"attrs":624,"content":625},{"textAlign":49},[626],{"text":627,"type":585},"VW will also be establishing an Eastern European factory due to enter production a year later. VW have yet to confirm locations for the two additional 40 GWh facilities but it is targeting production to begin before 2030.",{"type":580,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631],{"text":632,"type":585},"On the back of VW’s announcements, Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Megafactory Assessment is now tracking 21 plants with 613 GWh of capacity in the pipeline for 2030.",{"type":592,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"level":594,"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":585},"VW’s ‘unified cell’ and cathode chemistry plans ",{"type":580,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":49},[641],{"text":642,"type":585},"Another key takeaway from Power Day were VW’s plans to establish a unified cell, pictures of which suggested it would be a prismatic format.",{"type":580,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":49},[646],{"text":647,"type":585},"This could have implications for VW’s existing suppliers, particularly as two of the company’s main suppliers outside of China are LG Energy Solutions and SK Innovation – neither of which currently supply prismatic cells. VW suggested that its unified cell could be used in approximately 80% of its electric vehicles by 2030.",{"type":580,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651],{"text":652,"type":585},"The company outlined plans to use LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode technology for its entry level unified cells used in low-cost EVs.",{"type":580,"attrs":654,"content":655},{"textAlign":49},[656],{"text":657,"type":585},"The past 18 months has seen the use and discussion of LFP technology resurge, particularly after Tesla announced its intention to use the chemistry in its standard range Model 3s in China.",{"type":580,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661],{"text":662,"type":585},"LFP offers a lower-cost and safer alternative to high nickel cathode technologies. The cost advantages and safety benefits of LFP, however, come at the expense of energy density at the cell level. But with improvements in cell-to-pack technology, and potentially cell-to-car in the future, LFP’s performance at a system level is making it a more competitive proposition for entry-level, lower-range electric vehicles.",{"type":580,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":585},"VW also indicated plans to use high manganese, cobalt-free, cathode as the mainstream chemistry for use in its unified cell. However, high manganese technologies still remain under development and unqualified, and as such Benchmark does not expect these to be used by VW until the second part of the decade at the earliest, if they meet qualification expectations.",{"type":580,"attrs":669,"content":670},{"textAlign":49},[671],{"text":672,"type":585},"In the long term, VW suggested that 20% of its vehicles would use ‘specific solutions’ which would VW said could be any cell format. The cathode chemistry of choice will be NCM (nickel cathode manganese), which Benchmark expects to be a high nickel chemistry.",{"type":592,"attrs":674,"content":675},{"level":594,"textAlign":49},[676],{"text":677,"type":585},"Anode materials ",{"type":580,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":585},"Power Day saw VW announce plans to use synthetic graphite anodes and to use silicon as an additive in some of its cells. While VW did not provide great detail, its synthetic graphite announcement suggests a different approach to the prevailing EV trend in anode materials.",{"type":580,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":585},"Today, many automakers use a blend of natural and synthetic graphite, maximising on the differences in cost and performance between the two materials.",{"type":580,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":585},"Synthetic anode is currently the dominant anode material, with Benchmark’s graphite forecasts showing that in 2020 synthetic graphite had a 58% market share, compared with natural graphite’s 38.5%",{"type":580,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":585},"However, by the end of the decade this balance will shift with Benchmark forecasts showing that natural anodes will account for 49% of the market compared with 41% of synthetic anodes by 2030, while the market grows in absolute terms.",{"type":580,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":585},"VW’s silicon plans reflect its role as an anode material today. Currently silicon is used as an additive in some auto cells – ranging from 3-6% in content.",{"type":580,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":585},"With the energy density benefits provided by silicon anodes, and the potential for supply chain diversification, there is a growing push to increase its use as an anode material.",{"type":580,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":585},"Benchmark forecasts silicon’s anode market share to increase from less than 1% in 2020 to 5% in 2030, but there are still hurdles to wider adoption with degradation and expansion issues associated with increasing silicon content in the anode.",{"type":592,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"level":594,"textAlign":49},[716],{"text":717,"type":585},"Raw materials and supply chain strategy",{"type":580,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721],{"text":722,"type":585},"A notable omission from VW’s Power Day was a reference to battery raw materials. The company focused on the buildout of its downstream capacity and its plans to enter battery production but did not focus on raw material implications.",{"type":580,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":585},"Tesla, in comparison, placed much more focus on raw material supply during its Battery Day – which also coincided with the company announcing plans to build a lithium hydroxide refinery in Texas.",{"type":580,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[731],{"text":732,"type":585},"While Volkswagen acknowledged the cost that raw materials play in the battery and the benefits of vertical integration, it did not detail a raw material strategy to support its plans to bring 240 GWh of capacity to Europe this decade.",{"type":580,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"textAlign":49},[736],{"text":737,"type":585},"With 240 GWh of annual capacity requiring over 200,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), and approximately 150,000 tonnes of nickel based on prevailing cathode technologies, VW – and all other EV makers – will be exposed to significant raw material risks going forward.",{"type":580,"attrs":739,"content":740},{"textAlign":49},[741],{"text":742,"type":585},"With insufficient investment into upstream raw material production, raw material pricing risks will become a starker reality for all auto OEMs. Benchmark’s forecasts show that battery raw materials are facing supply shortfalls from the mid 2020s onwards. Price volatility is therefore a growing risk to automakers’ cost-cutting plans. This year lithium carbonate prices in China have almost doubled, cobalt hydroxide prices have increased 65.5%, and nickel sulphate prices in China up 18.5%.",{"type":580,"attrs":744,"content":745},{"textAlign":49},[746],{"text":747,"type":585},"VW’s recycling plans will support battery raw material sourcing in the long term but this will not tackle their near-terms supply issues. A recycling strategy is something all EV makers will consider – particularly those operating in the European Union, where the European Commission (EC) recently outlined requirements for battery cells to used recycled materials. But recycling will not mitigate for the reality of supply constraints in the 2020s and remains a long-term and partial solution to VW’s raw material needs.","Volkswagen’s (VW) Power Day saw the German automaker take its first major step in the battery arms race, committing to bring 240 GWh of capacity to Europe, outlining its cell format and chemistry plans and giving a glimpse of its supply chain strategy. Here, Benchmark assesses the key discussion points from VW’s announcements (and omissions) […]",[750],{"slug":568,"name":569,"content":751},{"job_title":571,"image":752,"bio":574,"linkedin":575},{"filename":573},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"39b832a1-29ed-4c94-b4c8-b3704574290d\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[756],{"slug":757,"name":758},"batteries","Batteries","private",{"id":49,"alt":761,"name":761,"focus":761,"title":761,"source":761,"filename":762,"copyright":761,"fieldtype":763,"meta_data":764,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ac5a8dea96/bm-vw-power-day-1.jpg","asset",{"alt":761,"title":761,"source":761,"copyright":761},"Mar 22, 2021","22nd March 2021",[],[],1792688592020]