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sparks raw material red alert","vw-sparks-raw-material-red-alert","article/vw-sparks-raw-material-red-alert",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":915,"featured":50,"reporter":916,"_editable":920,"component":921,"seo_title":553,"categories":922,"visibility":929,"author_company":49,"featured_image":930,"seo_description":915,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":935,"formattedArticleDate":936},"12e70d45-7dcc-4228-8cc8-17cd8a1c01b9","2017-11-24 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,613,618,623,630,635,640,645,650,655,660,665,670,675,680,685,688,693,698,703,708,713,718,723,728,733,738,743,748,753,758,766,777,784,791,798,805,812,823,830,837,852,859,866,873,880,887,894,901,908],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"VW Group’s cobalt pursuit sees automaker EV step change that will impact lithium, graphite and nickel","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"German automaker Volkswagen Group (VW) made an announcement in September which sent shockwaves through the lithium ion battery supply chain.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588],{"text":589,"type":579},"The company outlined the most significant capital investments seen so far from an incumbent auto manufacturer as part of VW’s drive to become the market leader in electric vehicles (EV), termed RoadmapE.",{"type":574,"attrs":591,"content":592},{"textAlign":49},[593],{"text":594,"type":579},"The announcement by CEO Matthias Müller stated the company will provide more than $24 billion (20 billion euros) for “direct investment in industrialising electromobility by 2030”. The capital will be used to develop two new EV platforms, a production plant and workforce qualification as well as building out charging infrastructure.",{"type":574,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":49},[598],{"text":599,"type":579},"The group as a whole, which includes Audi, Skoda, Porsche and Seat, has pledged to deliver more than 80 new EV models by 2025, 50 of which will be full EVs, the remaining 30 plug-in hybrids.",{"type":574,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":579},"VW also set itself the target of offering an electric version of each one of the groups 300 models by 2030.",{"type":574,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":579},"These are incredible numbers and a step change for the industry. With significant deficits forecast for the critical raw materials fundamental to lithium-ion batteries VW went one step further in its announcement, outlining that they have already begun attempting to source the raw materials needed for RoadmapE.",{"type":574,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":579},"Müller went on to state “the company will need a battery capacity of more than 150 GWh a year by 2025 solely to fit its own e-fleet”. This was later revised upwards to 200GWh. To ensure security of supply for the demand created by the group, VW has initiated the tender process for long-term strategic partnerships in China, Europe and the United States.",{"type":574,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":579},"“We’re talking here about one of the largest procurement projects in our industry’s history, one with a global order volume of more than €50 billion over its term” added Müller, with this figure relating to the group’s high volume all electric vehicles.",{"type":624,"attrs":625,"content":627},"heading",{"level":626,"textAlign":49},3,[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"VW’s raw material demand",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"In the announcement, Müller refers to the group requiring “three Gigafactories” to provide the 150GWh of cells to meet their forecast production demand by 2025. Reuters reported that the tender process has stipulated NCM cathode technology of 622 (6 parts nickel, 2 cobalt and 2 manganese) and 811, respectively.",{"type":574,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates that 150GWh of cells equates to 30,000 tpa of cobalt when considering the likely blend of the two cathode technologies stipulated, this is approximately a third of the total refined global market in 2016, a vast sum in an already stretched market.",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"More specifically, from the information that Benchmark has collated from industry sources, we estimate that the demand from VW in Europe for a 10-year period starting from 2019 will be in excess of 95,000 tonnes of cobalt, 370,000 tonnes of lithium and 555,000 tonnes of anode graphite.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"In relation to the total global market today, this is very significant. It represents a doubling of the global cobalt supply, an increase of 208% of the world’s lithium chemical supply (LCE) and over 5 times the global graphite anode supply.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":579},"The demands of VW are unquestionably huge, the cobalt market totalled just 93,000 tonnes in 2016, but VW represent just one of the multiple auto manufacturers who have outlined their plans to make EV’s a major part of their fleet. These include the likes of Toyota, Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and BMW.",{"type":574,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":579},"The raw material challenges are stark and are starting to become clear to the auto majors that are the furthest detached from the mineral supply. If VW’s forecast comes even close to realisation, it is not difficult to imagine that by 2025 the global demand from the auto industry could be 3-5 times the 150GWh figure.",{"type":574,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":579},"At a very conservative case, 450GWh of demand from the space will equate to 90,000 tonnes of cobalt. This alone highlights the problems the industry faces in sourcing raw materials and the figure does not take into account the need for e-buses, utility storage or any other lithium-ion applications.",{"type":624,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"level":626,"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":579},"The Titanic turns",{"type":574,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673],{"text":674,"type":579},"A top London-based investment bank analyst once commented to Benchmark that VW are the Titanic making a turning circle, but when the circle is turned it’s still the Titanic. And this statement from three years ago is becoming abundantly clear with its lithium ion battery demand requirements.",{"type":574,"attrs":676,"content":677},{"textAlign":49},[678],{"text":679,"type":579},"But VW are one of the last majors to announce serious EV plans. Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler said it will be investing $1bn in their vehicle manufacturing plant in Tuscaloosa, Alabama to produce EVs.",{"type":574,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":49},[683],{"text":684,"type":579},"Daimler subsequently tweeted – under pressure from Tesla’s Elon Musk that it “missed a zero” – that the company plans to invest $1bn in battery production and an additional $10bn in the company’s next generation EV’s further highlighting the demands the industry faces in the future.",{"type":574,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[],{"type":574,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":579},"Not to be outdone, General Motors (GM) followed up with their own announcement, committing to 20 new electric vehicle models by 2023 two of which are due in the next 18 months. Interestingly GM’s announcement set itself apart from others this year. GM is not committing to electrification of the company’s entire fleet but 20 new ‘all electric’ models.",{"type":574,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":579},"GM’s move to focus on all electric models means it is likely that all their new EVs will require battery packs of 60kWh or greater. This will mean a lot of new cobalt supply is needed.",{"type":574,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":579},"There are two main near-term supply projects that the market is looking towards to help meet rising cobalt demand – Glencore’s Katanga mining and Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) RTR project, both copper-cobalt projects located in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).",{"type":574,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":579},"The two projects combined are expected to bring 25,000-30,000 tpa of cobalt online in their first stages of mining, if both were to make it to production on time (a rarity in the mining world) we should see first material from both projects by H1 2019.",{"type":574,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":579},"As well as these two large scale DRC mines, Jinchuan are working to produce an optimised feasibility study for their Musonoi Project in DRC, which originally had a planned capacity of 10,000tpa of cobalt contained in hydroxide.",{"type":574,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716],{"text":717,"type":579},"Jinchuan plan to complete the optimised feasibility study by the end of 2017. Outside of the DRC there are a handful of development projects globally which can be considered near term prospects.",{"type":574,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721],{"text":722,"type":579},"If all of them were to make it to production they would total approximately 6,000tpa cobalt capacity, however each project is more than 2 years from production. Beyond this, there is some scope for expansion at existing projects, but this is limited to copper-cobalt mines due to prevailing low prices in the nickel market.",{"type":574,"attrs":724,"content":725},{"textAlign":49},[726],{"text":727,"type":579},"This raises a number of issues; the large copper-cobalt mines are found in the DRC, which has ongoing political issues meaning investors and board members are thinking twice about pouring money into a volatile country at a particularly unstable time.",{"type":574,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":49},[731],{"text":732,"type":579},"A lack of investment in cobalt exploration, due to a prolonged period of relatively low prices, means the majority of development projects are still at an early stage, and big question marks remain about exactly when or if they will make it to production.",{"type":574,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"textAlign":49},[736],{"text":737,"type":579},"So here lies the problem: in the unlikely event that all the outlined projects were to make it to production and meet nameplate capacity they would add a combined output of 46,000 tonnes to a market which is already stretched.",{"type":574,"attrs":739,"content":740},{"textAlign":49},[741],{"text":742,"type":579},"If one auto-manufacturer’s demands can be in the order of 30,000tpa by the mid 2020s, the growth in supply needs to rapid and investment is needed now. Investments are needed not just in new supply, but recycling processes which could be an important source to meet the rising demand and keeping the market balance somewhat in check.",{"type":574,"attrs":744,"content":745},{"textAlign":49},[746],{"text":747,"type":579},"This is an area which is yet to round on a technology to efficiently and economically extract not just cobalt but all the key minerals for spent cells. To put it simply the growth in demand from the auto industry is going to outstrip the supply response that can happen without significant investment in the sector, not only for cobalt but the other critical minerals fundamental to lithium-ion batteries.",{"type":574,"attrs":749,"content":750},{"textAlign":49},[751],{"text":752,"type":579},"The industry needs investment, and until that happens expect further price rises in these markets until a price point is found that instigates significant investment.",{"type":624,"attrs":754,"content":755},{"level":626,"textAlign":49},[756],{"text":757,"type":579},"ROADMAP-E: VW Group’s statement full",{"type":574,"attrs":759,"content":760},{"textAlign":49},[761],{"text":762,"type":579,"marks":763},"The Volkswagen Group is launching the most comprehensive electrification initiative in the global automotive industry with its “Roadmap E” which will see the company electrify its entire model portfolio by 2030 at the latest. ",[764],{"type":765},"italic",{"type":574,"attrs":767,"content":768},{"textAlign":49},[769,773],{"text":770,"type":579,"marks":771},"This means that, by then, there will be at least one electrified version of each of the 300 or so Group models across all brands and markets. This makes Volkswagen the first big mobility group to have put a date on the electrification of its entire fleet. The Group will need more than 200GWh of battery capacity annually by 2025 for its own e-fleet alone. This is equivalent to at least four",[772],{"type":765},{"text":774,"type":579,"marks":775},"gigafactories for battery cells. ",[776],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":778,"content":779},{"textAlign":49},[780],{"text":781,"type":579,"marks":782},"To meet this demand, the Company has put one of the largest procurement programmes in the industry’s history out to tender: over €50 billion. “We have got the message and we will deliver. ",[783],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":785,"content":786},{"textAlign":49},[787],{"text":788,"type":579,"marks":789},"This is not some vague declaration of intent. It is a strong self-commitment which, from today, becomes the yardstick by which we measure our performance,” said Matthias Müller, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, at the Group Media Night ahead of the International Motor Show (IAA) in Frankfurt, Germany. ",[790],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":792,"content":793},{"textAlign":49},[794],{"text":795,"type":579,"marks":796},"“The transformation in our industry is unstoppable. And we will lead that transformation,” said Müller. Volkswagen had already firmly established e-mobility as a key focus area in the “TOGETHER – Strategy 2025” future program presented in June 2016, and set itself the goal of becoming the global number one in e-mobility by 2025. ",[797],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":799,"content":800},{"textAlign":49},[801],{"text":802,"type":579,"marks":803},"The Company estimates that around one in four new Group vehicles – up to three million units a year depending on how the market develops – could already be purely battery-powered in 2025. Now, at this year’s IAA, Volkswagen is launching the next stage with “Roadmap E” – giving an added boost to product planning to massively accelerate the electrification of the Group-wide vehicle portfolio. ",[804],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":806,"content":807},{"textAlign":49},[808],{"text":809,"type":579,"marks":810},"The Group brands will bring a total of over 80 new electrified models to customers by 2025, including some 50 purely battery-powered vehicles and 30 plug-in hybrids. This figure will then increase by leaps and bounds over subsequent years until there is at least one electrified version for each of the Group’s 300 or so models across all vehicle classes worldwide by 2030 at the latest, in line with Volkswagen’s commitment.",[811],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":813,"content":814},{"textAlign":49},[815,819],{"text":816,"type":579,"marks":817}," “With ’Roadmap E’, we are opening up a new chapter in our Group’s history. And setting the scene for",[818],{"type":765},{"text":820,"type":579,"marks":821},"e-mobility’s final breakthrough. Then it is up to customers to decide how fast it will gain widespread acceptance,” explained Müller. ",[822],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":824,"content":825},{"textAlign":49},[826],{"text":827,"type":579,"marks":828},"Capex in e-mobility to be ramped up “Roadmap E” is also coupled with another increase in capex on e-mobility. Up until 2030, the Group will earmark over €20 billion for direct investments in the industrialization of e-mobility: in new vehicles based on two entirely new electric platforms, in upgrading plants and in training for the workforce, in charging infrastructure, in trading and sales and, last but not least, in battery technology and production. ",[829],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":831,"content":832},{"textAlign":49},[833],{"text":834,"type":579,"marks":835},"Volkswagen is addressing the issue of battery technology with a multi-stage medium- to long-term strategy – starting with bundling Group-wide development, procurement and quality assurance activities for all battery cells and modules in a “Center of Excellence” in Salzgitter. ",[836],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":838,"content":839},{"textAlign":49},[840,844,848],{"text":841,"type":579,"marks":842},"The Volkswagen brand is also setting up its first pilot line there to accumulate production know-how. By 2025, the Group will need over 150 gigawatt hours of li-ion",[843],{"type":765},{"text":845,"type":579,"marks":846}," b",[847],{"type":765},{"text":849,"type":579,"marks":850},"attery capacity annually for its own fleet alone. In order to meet this huge requirement, a tender process has been initiated with regard to long-term strategic partnerships for China, Europe and North America. ",[851],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":853,"content":854},{"textAlign":49},[855],{"text":856,"type":579,"marks":857},"The procurement project is one of the largest in the history of the automotive industry, with a total order volume of over €50 billion just for the Group’s future volume vehicles based on the Modular Electrification Toolkit. That will meet the Group’s needs for the first wave of e-mobility. Looking further ahead, Volkswagen is already gearing up for the next generation: solid-state batteries. ",[858],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":860,"content":861},{"textAlign":49},[862],{"text":863,"type":579,"marks":864},"The Group also plans to bring this forward-looking technology to market maturity together with partners. Müller emphasized: “For us, the transformation of transportation and the energy transition are inseparable. And creating a comprehensive charging infrastructure rapidly – in cities and on highways – will be critical to success. In Europe, and particularly in the automotive stronghold of Germany, much more needs to be done. ",[865],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":867,"content":868},{"textAlign":49},[869],{"text":870,"type":579,"marks":871},"Only then will customers’ trust grow. And only then will electric cars come out of the niche – and achieve relevant market share in years to come. I’m convinced this will succeed if politicians, the energy industry and automakers work in harness.” Conventional drivetrain portfolio as a bridge to the electric age. ",[872],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":874,"content":875},{"textAlign":49},[876],{"text":877,"type":579,"marks":878},"At the same time, the announcement of its accelerated electrification initiative underlines the Volkswagen Group’s commitment to an orderly system changeover – with today’s internal combustion engine as an indispensable bridge to an emission-free age. ",[879],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":881,"content":882},{"textAlign":49},[883],{"text":884,"type":579,"marks":885},"“For the time being, we will be offering the entire powertrain spectrum – from conventional to fully-electric – to enable sustainable and affordable mass mobility. We are not being arbitrary. We are listening to the voice of reason,” said Müller. ",[886],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":888,"content":889},{"textAlign":49},[890],{"text":891,"type":579,"marks":892},"Independent studies show that the Volkswagen Group’s present generation of internal combustion engines ranks among the cleanest and most efficient in the industry. The latest Euro 6 diesel engines deliver above-average performance in the new WLTP cycle under real-world conditions. ",[893],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":895,"content":896},{"textAlign":49},[897],{"text":898,"type":579,"marks":899},"And Volkswagen will continue to invest in the ongoing improvement of its conventional drives over the coming years. For instance, an SCR catalytic converter will be a standard feature of every new diesel engine produced by the Group going forward. All new gasoline engines will be equipped with a particulate filter across the board. ",[900],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":902,"content":903},{"textAlign":49},[904],{"text":905,"type":579,"marks":906},"The next engine generation from 2019 onward is expected to bring further significant improvements in consumption and emissions. In addition, the Group is working on synthetic fuels produced from renewable energies that could turn internal combustion engines into carbon-neutral powertrains. ",[907],{"type":765},{"type":574,"attrs":909,"content":910},{"textAlign":49},[911],{"text":912,"type":579,"marks":913},"The Group is also significantly expanding its range of CNG vehicles and, spearheaded by Audi, refining fuel cell technology toward market maturity.",[914],{"type":765},"VW Group’s cobalt pursuit sees automaker EV step change that will impact lithium, graphite and nickel German automaker Volkswagen Group (VW) made an announcement in September which sent shockwaves through the lithium ion battery supply chain. The company outlined the most significant capital investments seen so far from an incumbent auto manufacturer as part of […]",[917],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":918},{"job_title":565,"image":919,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"12e70d45-7dcc-4228-8cc8-17cd8a1c01b9\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[923,926],{"slug":924,"name":925},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":927,"name":928},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals","private",{"id":49,"alt":931,"name":931,"focus":931,"title":931,"source":931,"filename":932,"copyright":931,"fieldtype":933,"meta_data":934,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/fee1c25678/bm-screen-shot-2017-11-27-at-084403.png","asset",{"alt":931,"title":931,"source":931,"copyright":931},"Nov 24, 2017","24th November 2017",[],[],1792773945239]