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does Biden’s promise to electrify the US government fleet mean for battery and raw material demand?","what-does-bidens-promise-to-electrify-the-us-government-fleet-mean-for-battery-and-raw-material-demand","article/what-does-bidens-promise-to-electrify-the-us-government-fleet-mean-for-battery-and-raw-material-demand",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":686,"featured":50,"reporter":687,"_editable":691,"component":692,"seo_title":553,"categories":693,"visibility":700,"author_company":49,"featured_image":701,"seo_description":686,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":706,"formattedArticleDate":707},"8b6a6c7e-de68-4df5-b818-d267d6cd2d06","2021-02-01 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"usa","USA",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,593,598,605,610,615,620,633,638,643,648,656,661,666,671,676,681],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"US President Joe Biden has announced his intention to replace the US government’s federal fleet with “clean electric vehicles (EV) made right in in America, by American workers,” with promises of a million jobs across the auto supply chain.","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"Details and timelines of Biden’s federal EV transition remain unclear but with a government fleet of 645,000 vehicles, according to 2019 data from the Federal Fleet Report, it would represent a significant upsurge in US cell demand.",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"text":592,"type":582},"Benchmark’s analysis – based on the assumption that the full US government fleet converted to 100% battery electric vehicles – shows it would require approximately 69 GWh of battery cells, should the government choose emissions-free, 100% BEVs rather than hybrids.",{"type":577,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":49},[596],{"text":597,"type":582},"This places the average battery pack size well in excess of the global average of 55 kWh at over 100 kWh. However, this large average pack size can be attributed to the US fleet having a significant number of larger vehicles, particularly trucks, which Benchmark estimates would account for over 70% of cell requirements needed for the transition.",{"type":599,"attrs":600,"content":602},"heading",{"level":601,"textAlign":49},4,[603],{"text":604,"type":582},"US government’s cell & raw material requirements",{"type":577,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":49},[608],{"text":609,"type":582},"An additional 69 GWh of battery cell demand would be a shot in the arm for battery and raw material demand. However, with Biden pushing for American-made products, this would place significant pressures on the US battery supply chain, which remains in its infancy.",{"type":577,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613],{"text":614,"type":582},"For these cells to be US-made, the country would have to transform its battery supply chain to cater for the additional demand. According to Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Database, US EV battery demand in 2020 was only 24 GWh, with total worldwide demand of 134 GWh.",{"type":577,"attrs":616,"content":617},{"textAlign":49},[618],{"text":619,"type":582},"Benchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Database shows that in 2020, North American cell supply – all based in the USA – was just shy of 40 GWh, whereas total battery cell demand (including portables and energy storage) was almost 42 GWh.",{"type":577,"attrs":621,"content":622},{"textAlign":49},[623,631],{"text":624,"type":582,"marks":625},"The USA has nine Gigafactory scale battery plants in the pipeline",[626],{"type":627,"attrs":628},"link",{"href":629,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":630},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/global-battery-arms-race-the-usas-three-ev-to-battery-hubs-to-watch","url",{"text":632,"type":582},", of which only three were operational in 2020: Tesla-Panasonic’s Gigafactory 1, LG Chem’s Michigan plant supplying GM and AESC Envision’s factory in Tennessee.",{"type":577,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":49},[636],{"text":637,"type":582},"However, even with additional cell plants in the pipeline, it will be a challenge for US-based lithium ion cell production to support both the electrification of the US fleet and growing private EV demand in the near-term.",{"type":577,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":49},[641],{"text":642,"type":582},"There are of course major implications for battery raw material demand, which is where the biggest supply chain risks lie.",{"type":577,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":49},[646],{"text":647,"type":582},"Using Benchmark’s proprietary data, based on current cathode and anode raw material requirements, 69 GWh of cell demand would equate to:",{"type":577,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651],{"text":652,"type":582,"marks":653},"Source: Benchmark’s Cobalt, Natural Flake Graphite, Synthetic Graphite, Nickel, Lithium and Manganese Forecasts.",[654],{"type":655},"italic",{"type":577,"attrs":657,"content":658},{"textAlign":49},[659],{"text":660,"type":582},"As noted above, these raw material figures assume the US government transitions its entire federal fleet to 100% battery electric vehicles based on prevailing battery technology. In reality, the 69 GWh of cell demand, and the raw materials demand outlined, will be lower than this if the government decides against a fully electric transition.",{"type":577,"attrs":662,"content":663},{"textAlign":49},[664],{"text":665,"type":582},"The demand numbers from Benchmark’s analysis — while not a forecast — are illustrative of the challenges posed by a full transition of a government fleet to electric vehicles.",{"type":577,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":582},"This would be particularly challenging for the US supply chain, which would rely on external sources for its battery materials, from the mine to the cathode and anode.",{"type":577,"attrs":672,"content":673},{"textAlign":49},[674],{"text":675,"type":582},"For the Biden administration to fully transition the US federal fleet to BEVs while also ensuring much of the components are American-made, will also require significant investment in all stages of the lithium ion supply chain and will take some time to achieve.",{"type":577,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679],{"text":680,"type":582},"While details of the strategy are yet to be unveiled, the announcement signifiesthe new administration’s intentions to address climate change and electrify transport with support from the state.",{"type":577,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":582},"The success of the EV industry in China, and Europe’s recent uptick in EV demand, is testament to how quickly EV demand can increase when policies are in place to support it.","US President Joe Biden has announced his intention to replace the US government’s federal fleet with “clean electric vehicles (EV) made right in in America, by American workers,” with promises of a million jobs across the auto supply chain. Details and timelines of Biden’s federal EV transition remain unclear but with a government fleet of […]",[688],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":689},{"job_title":568,"image":690,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"8b6a6c7e-de68-4df5-b818-d267d6cd2d06\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[694,697],{"slug":695,"name":696},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":698,"name":699},"ev","EV","private",{"id":49,"alt":702,"name":702,"focus":702,"title":702,"source":702,"filename":703,"copyright":702,"fieldtype":704,"meta_data":705,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/f719195e38/bm-joe-biden-car.jpg","asset",{"alt":702,"title":702,"source":702,"copyright":702},"Feb 01, 2021","1st February 2021",[],[],1792624586608]