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supply? ","what-does-drcs-election-mean-for-copper-and-cobalt-supply","article/what-does-drcs-election-mean-for-copper-and-cobalt-supply",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":556,"content":566,"excerpt":794,"featured":51,"reporter":795,"_editable":799,"component":800,"seo_title":543,"categories":801,"visibility":810,"author_company":49,"featured_image":811,"seo_description":794,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":815,"formattedArticleDate":816},"25425e71-2e96-47ed-8c8d-6f7ee70f9069","2023-12-20 00:00",[550,553],{"slug":551,"name":552},"drc","DRC",{"slug":554,"name":555},"elections","Elections",[557],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":560},"matthew-bird","Matthew Bird",{"job_title":561,"image":562,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},"Senior Editor - Supply Chains & Data Visualisation",{"filename":563},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/14738033ec/matthew-bird.jpeg","Matthew writes, edits and produces content for Benchmark Intelligence and Benchmark Source across the whole mine to grid supply chain. He also acts as a liaison to the press. He has a PhD in electrochemistry from the University of Nottingham.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/birdmatthew/",{"type":567,"content":568},"doc",[569,576,581,586,591,596,601,608,613,628,637,642,647,652,657,662,667,672,677,688,693,698,719,724,729,734,739,744,749,754,759,764,769,774,779,784,789],{"type":570,"attrs":571,"content":572},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[573],{"text":574,"type":575},"Today marks the beginning of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) presidential, national, regional and local elections. It is estimated that more than 40 million Congolese people, from a nation of nearly 100 million, will go to the polls to express their political wishes. The president of the DRC is elected in a single round of votes. ","text",{"type":570,"attrs":577,"content":578},{"textAlign":49},[579],{"text":580,"type":575},"Provisional results of the election are expected to be available on December 31, and the president is expected to be sworn in on January 20, 2024.  ",{"type":570,"attrs":582,"content":583},{"textAlign":49},[584],{"text":585,"type":575},"Current DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, who is looking to secure a second five-year presidential term faces an array of challengers. His main rivals include former ExxonMobil executive Martin Fayulu, who is widely believed to have been the legitimate winner of the 2018 vote, Moise Katumbi, the former governor of the copper-rich Katanga region, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Denis Mukwege.",{"type":570,"attrs":587,"content":588},{"textAlign":49},[589],{"text":590,"type":575},"Global policymakers and investors active across the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain are closely watching the unfolding political developments, as any indications of policy continuity, a departure from the status quo, or elevated instability may have ripple effects across the critical mineral and cleantech industries, given the DRC’s mineral endowments. ",{"type":570,"attrs":592,"content":593},{"textAlign":49},[594],{"text":595,"type":575},"Additionally, the recent trend of increased resource nationalism, as the political establishment has sought to reclaim greater ownership of foreign-owned domestic assets, has highlighted political risks for international business interests in the sector.",{"type":570,"attrs":597,"content":598},{"textAlign":49},[599],{"text":600,"type":575},"Election observers caution that the risk of fraud or delay in selecting new leadership is high. Additionally, some regions may be unable to participate in the election for president, due to growing instability and armed conflict, particularly in the North Kivu province in the east of the country. A close or contested presidential result could also lead to a national crisis, like in the previous presidential election in 2018.",{"type":602,"attrs":603,"content":605},"heading",{"level":604,"textAlign":49},4,[606],{"text":607,"type":575},"DRC’s mineral wealth",{"type":570,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":575},"The DRC is the world’s top cobalt producer and sits on the world’s largest reserves of the element. In the DRC, cobalt is mined as a by-product of copper, and the country is tied for second place, with Peru, in terms of global copper production. ",{"type":570,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616,618,626],{"text":617,"type":575},"According to ",{"text":619,"type":575,"marks":620},"Benchmark’s Cobalt Forecast",[621],{"type":622,"attrs":623},"link",{"href":624,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":625},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts/cobalt/reports/","url",{"text":627,"type":575},", the DRC will account for 76% of global cobalt mine production in 2023, with its share of global cobalt production gradually decreasing to 67% in 2028 and 66% in 2033. However, the DRC will continue to be the dominant producer, and its loss of market share over time is generally attributable to an increase in Indonesian output rather than a decline in the DRC. The cobalt-copper production is located in the Lualaba and Haut-Katanga provinces.",{"type":570,"attrs":629,"content":630},{"textAlign":49},[631],{"type":632,"attrs":633},"image",{"id":49,"alt":634,"src":635,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":636},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/c5efb55fb0/bm-drc-cobalt-production-map.png",{},{"type":570,"attrs":638,"content":639},{"textAlign":49},[640],{"text":641,"type":575},"Simply put, there will be no EV industry without Congolese cobalt, something the automotive industry is beginning to come to terms with. The DRC’s pivotal role in the green transition, as well as its status as the site of a geopolitical scramble for Africa’s green minerals, warrants a closer examination of some of the key issues that could be shaped by the election outcome.",{"type":602,"attrs":643,"content":644},{"level":604,"textAlign":49},[645],{"text":646,"type":575},"Local battery industrialisation and implementation of the DRC-Zambia agreement ",{"type":570,"attrs":648,"content":649},{"textAlign":49},[650],{"text":651,"type":575},"In the mix is DRC’s future as a piece of a potential localised central African EV battery supply chain and industrial ecosystem. A 2022 agreement between the DRC and neighbouring Zambia aims to develop a local EV battery supply chain through the use of special economic zones, starting with the production of battery precursor. One step in this direction is a recently announced cobalt-copper refinery project which will be developed by Congolese company Buenessa and which is supported by the DRC government.",{"type":570,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":49},[655],{"text":656,"type":575},"The DRC-Zambia Battery Council oversees the implementation of the cooperation agreement, for which the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) are playing a facilitating role. ",{"type":570,"attrs":658,"content":659},{"textAlign":49},[660],{"text":661,"type":575},"This agreement reflects the DRC’s ambition to move up the EV battery supply chain from being a critical mineral producer to a potential green industrial power. The US backed a DRC-Zambia agreement through a trilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in December 2022. ",{"type":570,"attrs":663,"content":664},{"textAlign":49},[665],{"text":666,"type":575},"The outcome of the DRC elections is likely to influence the ongoing discussions between the DRC and Zambia on the location of a potential battery precursors facility, among other issues. ",{"type":570,"attrs":668,"content":669},{"textAlign":49},[670],{"text":671,"type":575},"Considering the need to source various battery minerals like manganese, nickel, and graphite from other African countries like South Africa, Madagascar, and Mozambique, broader cooperation on the continent will be crucial. How the future DRC president embraces enhanced regional cooperation will have implications for the development of this new industrial ecosystem.",{"type":602,"attrs":673,"content":674},{"level":604,"textAlign":49},[675],{"text":676,"type":575},"Relationship with China and Congolese resource nationalism",{"type":570,"attrs":678,"content":679},{"textAlign":49},[680,682,686],{"text":681,"type":575},"Chinese investment and firms have played an outsize role in developing and benefitting from the DRC’s natural resources. ",{"text":619,"type":575,"marks":683},[684],{"type":622,"attrs":685},{"href":624,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":625},{"text":687,"type":575}," shows that Chinese firms currently have financial stakes in 18 of the 26 cobalt-producing assets in the DRC.",{"type":570,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":575},"While the political establishment of the DRC has courted international investment to help exploit their natural resources, DRC leadership is also engaged on multiple fronts in attempting to restructure copper-cobalt mining agreements and joint ventures to capture more of the value from these activities domestically. ",{"type":570,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":575},"This year, President Tshisekedi instructed his government to move ahead with talks on restructuring the $6 billion Sicomines deal, originally entered into force in 2008, to boost its domestic stake in the venture from 32 to 70%. Renegotiation attempts are not only targeting Chinese firms, however. In 2018, Glencore agreed to write off the debt of a subsidiary jointly owned along with the state-owned mining company Gécamines in order to end a dispute with the state-owned miner. ",{"type":570,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701,703,709,711,717],{"text":702,"type":575},"At their extremes these situations can pose potentially serious ramifications for cobalt supply. In 2022, China’s CMOC was hit with export restrictions by the DRC government, which accused the company of intentionally misrepresenting the ",{"text":704,"type":575,"marks":705},"size of the Tenke Fungureme mine reserves",[706],{"type":622,"attrs":707},{"href":708,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":625},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/congo-court-ejects-china-moly-from-tenke-cobalt-mine",{"text":710,"type":575},", impacting the royalty payments to Gécamines, which has a 20% stake in the mine. This has led to a large build-up of stockpiled material. The dispute was resolved, and ",{"text":712,"type":575,"marks":713},"export restrictions were lifted",[714],{"type":622,"attrs":715},{"href":716,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":625},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/cobalt-stockpile-set-to-enter-market-as-cmoc-gecamines-drc-dispute-resolved",{"text":718,"type":575}," in April this year.",{"type":570,"attrs":720,"content":721},{"textAlign":49},[722],{"text":723,"type":575},"This month, the Congo government extended the suspension of Eurasian Resources Group’s (ERG) Boss Mining copper-cobalt project over environmental and safety concerns. This follows a 2018 renegotiation which saw Gécamines increase its stake in Boss Mining and the state’s statement of interest in buying back copper and cobalt assets from ERG in summer 2023.",{"type":570,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"textAlign":49},[727],{"text":728,"type":575},"The next Congolese president will have to balance the need to be a reliable business partner while ensuring that foreign investment can generate local added value. ",{"type":602,"attrs":730,"content":731},{"level":604,"textAlign":49},[732],{"text":733,"type":575},"Geopolitical involvement of the US and EU",{"type":570,"attrs":735,"content":736},{"textAlign":49},[737],{"text":738,"type":575},"The European Union (EU) and the United States have also increasingly focused on the DRC with the dual aims of securing their own cleantech supply chains and countering China’s geopolitical ambitions in the African Copperbelt. How the DRC navigates this Western geopolitical interest and whether it will benefit from it remains to be seen.",{"type":570,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":49},[742],{"text":743,"type":575},"As part of its Global Gateway Initiative, the EU concluded a strategic partnership on sustainable raw materials value chains with the DRC last October, identifying five areas of collaboration including critical raw material supply chain integration, mobilisation of infrastructure financing, ESG due diligence and traceability, research and innovation, and building legal and regulatory capacity. The EU concluded a similar strategic partnership with Zambia.",{"type":570,"attrs":745,"content":746},{"textAlign":49},[747],{"text":748,"type":575},"Following the G20 summit in September 2023, the EU, the US, the DRC, Zambia, Angola, the African Development Bank and the Africa Finance Corporation signed a MoU to support the development of the so-called “Lobito Corridor.” ",{"type":570,"attrs":750,"content":751},{"textAlign":49},[752],{"text":753,"type":575},"This transport corridor aims to connect the DRC and Zambia to regional and global trade markets via the Port of Lobito in Angola. By doing this, the US and EU are attempting to enhance regional African cooperation to support the development of local critical raw materials supply chains and, at the same time, to meet their own demand for these minerals. ",{"type":570,"attrs":755,"content":756},{"textAlign":49},[757],{"text":758,"type":575},"Certainly, the next Congolese president will have a role to play in unlocking further investment and enabling the success of these goals. ",{"type":602,"attrs":760,"content":761},{"level":604,"textAlign":49},[762],{"text":763,"type":575},"What’s ahead",{"type":570,"attrs":765,"content":766},{"textAlign":49},[767],{"text":768,"type":575},"Supported by the state apparatus and facing a fragmented opposition, current President Tshisekedi is believed to hold the pole position in the elections. Whether contested election results or accusations of meddling cause additional unrest in the country is a clear and present risk. ",{"type":570,"attrs":770,"content":771},{"textAlign":49},[772],{"text":773,"type":575},"The tendencies of resource nationalism from the current government may continue into the next presidency, regardless of the winner, as the government attempts to gain more control over the revenues from the copper-cobalt mining sector. ",{"type":570,"attrs":775,"content":776},{"textAlign":49},[777],{"text":778,"type":575},"Indeed this seems like it may be an enduring feature as the DRC has struggled to translate increased investment and production in these sectors into material benefits for the broader Congolese public, despite rising mineral prices fueling impressive gross domestic product growth in the country over the last several years. The process of renegotiating deals and reallocating revenue carries with it the risk of disputes and supply disruptions if the government decides to play hardball. ",{"type":570,"attrs":780,"content":781},{"textAlign":49},[782],{"text":783,"type":575},"A Tshisekedi victory may provide some degree of policy continuity for investors in the mining sector that diminishes the perceived risk of continued and future investment. However, no election outcome will change the simple fact that the world needs what the DRC has to offer. How the next Congolese president can balance pressing issues at home with international cooperation will be a critical factor in the near and long-term future of DRC’s status as a key mineral producer and, perhaps one day, a green industrial power.",{"type":602,"attrs":785,"content":786},{"level":604,"textAlign":49},[787],{"text":788,"type":575},"Learn more about Benchmark’s cobalt services",{"type":570,"attrs":790,"content":791},{"textAlign":49},[792],{"text":793,"type":575},"Fill in the form below to learn more about Benchmark’s cobalt price assessments, cobalt market forecasts and ESG services.","Today marks the beginning of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) presidential, national, regional and local elections. It is estimated that more than 40 million Congolese people, from a nation of nearly 100 million, will go to the polls to express their political wishes. The president of the DRC is elected in a single round […]",[796],{"slug":558,"name":559,"content":797},{"job_title":561,"image":798,"bio":564,"linkedin":565},{"filename":563},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"25425e71-2e96-47ed-8c8d-6f7ee70f9069\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[802,804,807],{"slug":803,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":805,"name":806},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":808,"name":809},"geopolitics","Geopolitics","public",{"id":49,"alt":634,"name":634,"focus":634,"title":634,"source":634,"filename":812,"copyright":634,"fieldtype":813,"meta_data":814,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/6af1f07149/bm-drc-cobalt-trucks.jpg","asset",{"alt":634,"title":634,"source":634,"copyright":634},"Dec 20, 2023","20th December 2023",[],[],{"id":820,"uuid":821,"name":822,"slug":823,"full_slug":823,"content":824,"relatedArticles":828,"relatedVideos":829},120886048076734,"4b6fbcc0-7881-4fbb-92ee-06d1ed3f3cec","⚙️ Settings","settings",{"_uid":825,"component":823,"black_listed_email_domains":826,"_editable":827,"formattedDate":634,"formattedArticleDate":634},"8dcafbcc-28de-4388-a68e-6b41e24f31bb","direkt.se\nstreetwisereports.com\nalpha-sense.com\nafrica-energy.com\ntcs.com\nmm-markets.com\nsmr-premium.com\nsci99.com\nlondoncib.com\nyeb.com.br\nnewautomotive.org\nsina.com.cn\ngwstrategies.net\noliverwyman.com\ndazeinfo.com\ndataintelo.com\ninfyos.com\nevalueserve.com\ninsightwoo.com\ncrescendoanalytic.com\nipaglobal.com\nweare121.com\nzemek.com\nryancommodityinsights.com\nonyxsi.com\ncostmine.com\nnickhatchmining.com\naethoslabs.com\nmysteel.com\nbuzblox.com\nfutureproofconsulting.com.au\ncmgroup.net\noptelgroup.com\nberylls.com\nreputex.com\nnumber-three.net\nrobertdallison.com\nwsp.com\nafriforesight.com\npaydirt.com.au\nmetal.com\ninforma.com\nfelixstrategy.com\ncrisil.com\nantaike.com\nbatterymaterialsreview.com\nsrk.com\nglobaltrustgrp.com\nnapiermeridian.com\nprojectblue.com\nplutonic-rma.com\nrosaearth.io\ndrivesustainability.org\nminehub.com\nscsglobalservices.com\nLynxglobalintelligence.com\nsphera.com\nminespider.com\nc-resource.com\ntdi-sustainability.com\nkumi.consulting\nsc-insights.com\nkallanish.com\naboutenergy.co.uk\nenant.io\nopisnet.com\nacuitycommodities.com\nevinfocus.com\nsfa-oxford.com\ncrugroup.com\nwoodmac.com\nspglobal.com\nrolandberger.com\nrcsglobal.com\nnornik.ru\nlivista.energy\nihsmarkit.com\ncapitalightresearch.com\namegroup.com\ncapitalight.co\nsustainablelabs.io\ncommoditiesanalysis.co.uk\navicenne.com\nkearney.com\nnornickel.net\n5napier.com\nvoltility.net\ngf.com.cn\nhindenburgresearch.com\ndigbee.com\nadamasintel.com\nac-harvard.com\nsneresearch.com\ninventusbioenergy.com\nproactiveinvestors.com\nauroraer.com\nresourceworld.com\nbatteryline.com\norennia.com\nfastmarkets.com\nmsci.com\nbcg.com\nklinegroup.com\ndelta-ee.com\nskarnassociates.com\nricardo.com\ncleanhorizon.com\np3-group.com\naccenture.com\nporsche-consulting.com\numlaut.com\nadi-analytics.com\ncpmgroup.com\nilimarkets.com\nminviro.com\nmckinsey.com\ncicenergigune.com\ne4tech.com\nargusmedia.com\ndolbear.com\nerm.com\nlithium.org\nradiusq.com\ndigivla.com\njeri.co.jp\ntopology.com.tw\nsaurenergy.com\novaladvisory.com\ngsixenergy.com","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"settings\", \"space\": \"287943243085208\", \"uid\": \"8dcafbcc-28de-4388-a68e-6b41e24f31bb\", \"id\": \"120886048076734\"}-->",[],[],1781882616687]