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does the rise of plug-in hybrids mean for battery demand? ","what-does-the-rise-of-plug-in-hybrids-mean-for-battery-demand","article/what-does-the-rise-of-plug-in-hybrids-mean-for-battery-demand",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":563,"content":573,"excerpt":777,"featured":51,"reporter":778,"_editable":782,"component":783,"seo_title":553,"categories":784,"visibility":791,"author_company":49,"featured_image":792,"seo_description":777,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":796,"formattedArticleDate":797},"f4ae7138-817f-44f1-920c-96efe600520f","2024-09-05 00:00",[560],{"slug":561,"name":562},"ev-demand","EV demand",[564],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":567},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":568,"image":569,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":570},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":574,"content":575},"doc",[576,583,588,597,612,617,622,627,632,637,644,651,664,669,674,681,686,693,698,703,708,713,724,731,736,741,746,751,762,767,772],{"type":577,"attrs":578,"content":579},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[580],{"text":581,"type":582},"Plug-in hybrid vehicles are increasing their share of the electric vehicle market this year, especially in China, where they now account for over half of sales. ","text",{"type":577,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":582},"Plug-in hybrids are growing in popularity since they ease consumer concerns over range anxiety, promising driving ranges of over 1,000 kilometres. Sales of PHEVs in China have risen by 70% year-to-date, compared to a 12% increase for pure battery electric vehicles, according to Rho Motion, hitting a record high in July. ",{"type":577,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":49},[591],{"type":592,"attrs":593},"image",{"id":49,"alt":594,"src":595,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":596},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/07f916a3b9/bm-image-97-1344070a0de5.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":598,"content":599},{"textAlign":49},[600,602,610],{"text":601,"type":582},"If all light duty electric vehicles this year were to be PHEV instead of pure battery electric vehicles ",{"text":603,"type":582,"marks":604},"battery demand",[605],{"type":606,"attrs":607},"link",{"href":608,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":609},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-ion-batteries/portal/","url",{"text":611,"type":582}," would drop to around 320 gigawatt hours compared to 716 GWh with the current market share split. ",{"type":577,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":582},"Yet even as PHEV increase their market share the impact on lithium ion battery demand may be more limited due to the rapid rise of range extender EVs (REEVs) in China, which use smaller engines and larger batteries compared to other plug-in hybrids. ",{"type":577,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":582},"Range extender hybrids only use small engines to charge the battery for longer journeys, rather than power the car. ",{"type":577,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625],{"text":626,"type":582},"In addition, outside China tightening CO2 emissions regulations on automakers in Europe means that PHEVs are unlikely to be a longer term solution, due to the uncertainty around their emissions. ",{"type":577,"attrs":628,"content":629},{"textAlign":49},[630],{"text":631,"type":582},"“Even if there are some good PHEV users out there the problem for policymakers is incentivising PHEVs with regulation or subsidies doesn’t guarantee meaningful emissions reduction in the same way as zero-emission vehicles, such as BEVs” Luke Gear, an analyst at Benchmark, said. ",{"type":577,"attrs":633,"content":634},{"textAlign":49},[635],{"text":636,"type":582},"“PHEVs are seeing a resurgence, but so far this is regionally isolated to China.” ",{"type":577,"attrs":638,"content":639},{"textAlign":49},[640],{"type":592,"attrs":641},{"id":49,"alt":594,"src":642,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":643},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/f734a49782/bm-image-98-1344072685f5.png",{},{"type":645,"attrs":646,"content":648},"heading",{"level":647,"textAlign":49},4,[649],{"text":650,"type":582},"The impact of PHEVs on battery demand",{"type":577,"attrs":652,"content":653},{"textAlign":49},[654,656,662],{"text":655,"type":582},"Globally PHEVs accounted for 35% of global electric vehicle sales this year – a growth of 5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 where PHEVs represented almost a third of total EV sales, according to ",{"text":657,"type":582,"marks":658},"Rho Motion",[659],{"type":606,"attrs":660},{"href":661,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":609},"https://rhomotion.com/news/press-release-european-ev-sales-fall-year-on-year-13-august-2024/",{"text":663,"type":582},", a Benchmark-owned company.",{"type":577,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"textAlign":49},[667],{"text":668,"type":582},"That’s around an additional 420,000 vehicles, compared to if the market share split between BEVs and PHEVs remained the same as last year. Due to their smaller batteries, that would represent a potential loss of around 19 gigawatt hours of battery demand. ",{"type":577,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":582},"Yet the impact of potential lost battery demand is being mitigated by the increase of range-extender electric vehicles in China. In China, the share of so-called range extender EVs in the total electric vehicle market has risen from 7% to 11%, according to Rho Motion. ",{"type":577,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"type":592,"attrs":678},{"id":49,"alt":594,"src":679,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":680},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/b56dd00d48/bm-the-share-of-range-extended-evs-is-rising-in-china.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":682,"content":683},{"textAlign":49},[684],{"text":685,"type":582},"The range extender vehicles in China have average battery pack sizes of 39 kWh compared to an average of 19 kWh for PHEVs, according to Rho Motion.",{"type":577,"attrs":687,"content":688},{"textAlign":49},[689],{"type":592,"attrs":690},{"id":49,"alt":594,"src":691,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":692},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/0ad5e92533/bm-image-99-1344073708f8.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":582},"That’s increased the overall average pack size for the PHEV sector by 3.82 kWh, according to William Roberts, an analyst at Rho. In total that’s added an additional 12 GWh of battery demand this year alone.",{"type":577,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":582},"“Because of the prevalence of range-extenders that has diminished the reduction [in battery demand] from plug-in hybrids,” he said.",{"type":645,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"level":647,"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":582},"Questions over emissions",{"type":577,"attrs":709,"content":710},{"textAlign":49},[711],{"text":712,"type":582},"Even as automakers continue to sell PHEVs there are concerns around their emissions, since the use of the battery over the engine depends on individual drivers. ",{"type":577,"attrs":714,"content":715},{"textAlign":49},[716,718,720,722],{"text":717,"type":582},"In March the European Commission published a study based on fuel consumption monitors installed on-board vehicles. It showed that for ",{"text":719,"type":582},"plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, the real-world CO",{"text":721,"type":582},"2",{"text":723,"type":582}," emissions were on average 3.5 times higher than the laboratory values. ",{"type":577,"attrs":725,"content":726},{"textAlign":49},[727],{"type":592,"attrs":728},{"id":49,"alt":594,"src":729,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":730},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/bd6e7366d1/bm-image-100-13440746144d.png",{},{"type":577,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":582},"The data “confirms that these vehicles are currently not realising their potential, largely because they are not being charged and driven fully electrically as frequently as assumed,” it said. ",{"type":577,"attrs":737,"content":738},{"textAlign":49},[739],{"text":740,"type":582},"As a result the commission has introduced changes to how they calculate the so-called utility factor of PHEVs, which is the share of distance driven electrically. These changes will apply starting in 2025.",{"type":577,"attrs":742,"content":743},{"textAlign":49},[744],{"text":745,"type":582},"Where a PHEV with a 60km range would currently be expected to be used in all-electric mode 69% of the time, this will change to 37% in 2025 and then 21% in 2027, according to Rho Motion. ",{"type":577,"attrs":747,"content":748},{"textAlign":49},[749],{"text":750,"type":582},"This feeds into the fleet-wide CO2 targets established by the EU. If manufacturers in Europe do not meet average CO2 emissions standards they have to pay an excess emissions premium to the EU. ",{"type":577,"attrs":752,"content":753},{"textAlign":49},[754,756,757,759,760],{"text":755,"type":582},"The targets are 93.6 g CO",{"text":721,"type":582},{"text":758,"type":582},"/km from between 2025-2029 and 49.5 g CO",{"text":721,"type":582},{"text":761,"type":582},"/km from 2030 to 2034.",{"type":577,"attrs":763,"content":764},{"textAlign":49},[765],{"text":766,"type":582},"European automakers will not want PHEVs to eat into their sales of pure battery EVs as they look to meet CO2 emissions regulations, Rho’s Roberts said. ",{"type":577,"attrs":768,"content":769},{"textAlign":49},[770],{"text":771,"type":582},"While they might be able to meet the 2025 targets, the EU has set a target of 0 g CO2/km by 2035, which means that PHEVs cannot be the solution over the longer-term. ",{"type":577,"attrs":773,"content":774},{"textAlign":49},[775],{"text":776,"type":582},"“Our view is that OEMs can’t afford to have plug-in hybrids to be stealing sales from battery electric vehicles,” Rho Motion’s Roberts said. “They need plug-in hybrids to only be stealing sales from ICE vehicles … they cannot afford to lose battery electric vehicle sales to plug-in hybrids.”","Plug-in hybrid vehicles are increasing their share of the electric vehicle market this year, especially in China, where they now account for over half of sales. Plug-in hybrids are growing in popularity since they ease consumer concerns over range anxiety, promising driving ranges of over 1,000 kilometres. Sales of PHEVs in China have risen by […]",[779],{"slug":565,"name":566,"content":780},{"job_title":568,"image":781,"bio":571,"linkedin":572},{"filename":570},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"f4ae7138-817f-44f1-920c-96efe600520f\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[785,788],{"slug":786,"name":787},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":789,"name":790},"ev","EV","private",{"id":49,"alt":594,"name":594,"focus":594,"title":594,"source":594,"filename":793,"copyright":594,"fieldtype":794,"meta_data":795,"is_external_url":51},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/74ecf78592/bm-byd-u8-ev.jpg","asset",{"alt":594,"title":594,"source":594,"copyright":594},"Sep 05, 2024","5th September 2024",[],[],1792769817890]