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the battery industry needs at the moment is more transparency of price.” Q&A with Sucden CEO Marc Bailey on nickel and the LME.","what-the-battery-industry-needs-at-the-moment-is-more-transparency-of-price-qa-with-sucden-ceo-marc-bailey-on-nickel-and-the-lme","article/what-the-battery-industry-needs-at-the-moment-is-more-transparency-of-price-qa-with-sucden-ceo-marc-bailey-on-nickel-and-the-lme",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":569,"content":579,"excerpt":736,"featured":50,"reporter":737,"_editable":741,"component":742,"seo_title":553,"categories":743,"visibility":752,"author_company":49,"featured_image":753,"seo_description":736,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":758,"formattedArticleDate":759},"ebd1f327-c77b-4bc8-9397-68e0a4366f89","2023-03-14 00:00",[560,563,566],{"slug":561,"name":562},"lme","LME",{"slug":564,"name":565},"nickel-prices","Nickel prices",{"slug":567,"name":568},"qa","Q&A",[570],{"slug":571,"name":572,"content":573},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":574,"image":575,"bio":577,"linkedin":578},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":576},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":580,"content":581},"doc",[582,607,612,617,622,629,634,639,644,649,654,659,664,669,674,679,684,689,694,699,704,716,721,726,731],{"type":583,"attrs":584,"content":585},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[586,589,597,599,605],{"text":587,"type":588},"Last year’s ","text",{"text":590,"type":588,"marks":591},"sudden spike in nickel prices",[592],{"type":593,"attrs":594},"link",{"href":595,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/historic-nickel-rally-shuts-down-lme-and-places-tsingshan-in-the-spotlight","url",{"text":598,"type":588}," and the decision by the London Metal Exchange to cancel billions of dollars of trades left the ",{"text":600,"type":588,"marks":601},"nickel market",[602],{"type":593,"attrs":603},{"href":604,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/a-year-after-lme-nickel-chaos-battery-supply-chain-seeks-alternative-prices",{"text":606,"type":588}," without a clear price. ",{"type":583,"attrs":608,"content":609},{"textAlign":49},[610],{"text":611,"type":588},"Marc Bailey had a front row seat to the drama as chief executive of Sucden, which is a top-tier Category 1 broker on the London Metal Exchange. ",{"type":583,"attrs":613,"content":614},{"textAlign":49},[615],{"text":616,"type":588},"A veteran of the commodity markets, Bailey started his career as a trader on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange.",{"type":583,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620],{"text":621,"type":588},"He answered questions from Benchmark Source. Below is an edited transcript of the conversation. ",{"type":623,"attrs":624,"content":626},"heading",{"level":625,"textAlign":49},4,[627],{"text":628,"type":588},"Is there a continuing lack of trust in the LME’s nickel contract? ",{"type":583,"attrs":630,"content":631},{"textAlign":49},[632],{"text":633,"type":588},"I think that the word “continuing” is a good one actually. Because I do think that over the last year we’ve been through various phases, particularly when the market reopened and I think that during the early weeks, maybe even the early months, I think there was a lot of loss of trust. ",{"type":583,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":49},[637],{"text":638,"type":588},"I think what’s been quite helpful is the market has now migrated down to a price which is perhaps more recognisable by those people that asked for live trading in the physical market. And I think that the lack of trust was largely based on the fact that there was sort of a dislocated price, and therefore we had lost its kind of meaning as a reference. ",{"type":583,"attrs":640,"content":641},{"textAlign":49},[642],{"text":643,"type":588},"So I think ahead of the Asia reopening [re-opening of Asian trading hours for nickel], which I think is still planned for next Monday. It’s interesting how the market has also been trading in relatively tight trading ranges of $1,000 or even less … So I think that shows that there is some confidence coming back into the average daily volume.",{"type":583,"attrs":645,"content":646},{"textAlign":49},[647],{"text":648,"type":588},"We definitely see that people are now prepared to price on the buy-side. So whereas before, when we were up at the $30,000 a tonne mark, nobody really wanted to price the buy side so you had these sort of producers shorts but no, no real consumer appetite. Now at this level, people are prepared to take some pricing at this level. And that’s added to the ADV [average daily volume] and I think that’s added to a little bit of confidence. So I think the next milestone is the Asian reopening.",{"type":623,"attrs":650,"content":651},{"level":625,"textAlign":49},[652],{"text":653,"type":588},"In terms of capturing the battery market for nickel, does the LME need to approve new brands? ",{"type":583,"attrs":655,"content":656},{"textAlign":49},[657],{"text":658,"type":588},"I think any new brands at the moment will be welcomed by the LME. And it’s certainly I think one of the shifts that I’ve seen talking to clients is that they don’t ever, strangely enough, they don’t ever want to be caught in the position they were caught in this time last year. And everybody accepts that there was the inability to deliver Class 1 nickel. ",{"type":583,"attrs":660,"content":661},{"textAlign":49},[662],{"text":663,"type":588},"So I think what the Chinese market is doing, which is quite interesting, is that some people are pricing on SHFE [Shanghai Futures Exchange.] I think the truth of the matter is that the volumes are very small as well. So it’s kind of like ‘can everybody please work together to get a decent benchmark?’ ",{"type":583,"attrs":665,"content":666},{"textAlign":49},[667],{"text":668,"type":588},"And I think one of the things that the market seems to have gravitated towards is if I have got some Class 1 metal to deliver, it doesn’t need to be everything of my position, or everything of my production. Say for argument’s sake, you’ve got 100 units of production and you’re hedging 15% of that. As long as I’ve got 15% of Class 1 lying around somewhere then the worst comes to worst I can just deliver it. And I think that is the mindset that I’m beginning to see. ",{"type":623,"attrs":670,"content":671},{"level":625,"textAlign":49},[672],{"text":673,"type":588},"We’ve heard Chinese nickel companies are looking at producing more Class 1 nickel, how will that impact the market? ",{"type":583,"attrs":675,"content":676},{"textAlign":49},[677],{"text":678,"type":588},"It seems that from what we’re hearing is that there seems to have been quite a bit of investment going on in converting matte to Class 1. And chemical plants can make it possible. And some of these producers are claiming they can do it within days. ",{"type":623,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"level":625,"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":588},"Many Chinese companies are pricing their nickel products based on a Chinese nickel sulphate price, could this be a new pricing mechanism? ",{"type":583,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687],{"text":688,"type":588},"Nickel sulphate is very difficult to transport. It’s highly toxic. Nobody really wants to take responsibility to move it from A to B. So it’s almost like a non deliverable product in that sense. So it kind of seems to sit close to factories and it seems to then trade in the supply chain. So it doesn’t seem to trade between people, if that makes sense. So I think in terms of what the price of sulphate is, it’s not an easy story to tell on any one day. ",{"type":583,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692],{"text":693,"type":588},"So whilst people might be doing that, for the sake of convenience, I don’t think they would do that as their first choice. ",{"type":583,"attrs":695,"content":696},{"textAlign":49},[697],{"text":698,"type":588},"I think you’ve got to have the trades committed to almost some sort of index process, where you take reference prices and then throughout the period of a time you agree that that is the average price of the week and you use that to settle a futures contract or something like that. But I don’t think price discovery is going to come easy in this stuff.",{"type":583,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"text":703,"type":588},"I think that everybody was putting on a brave face and looking for immediate solutions. And I don’t think anybody found immediate solutions. Pricing nickel sulphate works China to China, but it’s not something that you know, you see many European consumers doing?",{"type":583,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"textAlign":49},[707,709,714],{"text":708,"type":588},"I think the trade wants different ",{"text":710,"type":588,"marks":711},"price discovery mechanisms",[712],{"type":593,"attrs":713},{"href":604,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":596},{"text":715,"type":588},", if only to give them a surety over a price… I think that the spot price, the very physical cash price at the moment – I think that the industry wants that and they want to price this not distorted by speculation, because rightly or wrongly they think that part of what happened was speculation. ",{"type":583,"attrs":717,"content":718},{"textAlign":49},[719],{"text":720,"type":588},"The reason why they are still happy to look at the LME Ring is because they see the Ring as devoid of speculation – they see it as a pure trade price. ",{"type":623,"attrs":722,"content":723},{"level":625,"textAlign":49},[724],{"text":725,"type":588},"What do you think the battery industry wants? ",{"type":583,"attrs":727,"content":728},{"textAlign":49},[729],{"text":730,"type":588},"I think what the battery industry needs at the moment is they just want more transparency of price. Because when they trade with each other, the thing they’ve really struggled with was when the LME price was up to $30,000 a tonne … So I think anything that can give proper transparency and trust so the physical contract can be struck in confidence between two counterparties is the answer to the question.",{"type":583,"attrs":732,"content":733},{"textAlign":49},[734],{"text":735,"type":588},"And that to me is the secret. If you can create a reference price with lower transaction volume, then I think that would add a lot of value right now. And I think it would add liquidity to the LME. ","Last year’s sudden spike in nickel prices and the decision by the London Metal Exchange to cancel billions of dollars of trades left the nickel market without a clear price. Marc Bailey had a front row seat to the drama as chief executive of Sucden, which is a top-tier Category 1 broker on the London […]",[738],{"slug":571,"name":572,"content":739},{"job_title":574,"image":740,"bio":577,"linkedin":578},{"filename":576},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"ebd1f327-c77b-4bc8-9397-68e0a4366f89\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[744,747,750],{"slug":745,"name":746},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":748,"name":749},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":751,"name":151},"nickel","private",{"id":49,"alt":754,"name":754,"focus":754,"title":754,"source":754,"filename":755,"copyright":754,"fieldtype":756,"meta_data":757,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/ae9c818b49/bm-marc-bailey-0011.jpg","asset",{"alt":754,"title":754,"source":754,"copyright":754},"Mar 14, 2023","14th March 2023",[],[],1790147607122]