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2027?","why-are-lithium-prices-expected-to-decline-in-2027-","article/why-are-lithium-prices-expected-to-decline-in-2027-",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"tags":549,"editor":568,"content":578,"excerpt":861,"featured":51,"reporter":862,"component":872,"seo_title":543,"categories":873,"visibility":879,"data_vis_image":880,"featured_image":885,"seo_description":889,"formattedDate":890,"formattedArticleDate":891},"d1db3e25-2650-421b-b4f8-7dd2073d8675","2026-05-20 00:00",[550,553,556,559,562,565],{"slug":551,"name":552},"jiangxi","Jiangxi",{"slug":554,"name":555},"zimbabwe","Zimbabwe",{"slug":557,"name":558},"catl","CATL",{"slug":560,"name":561},"sigma-lithium-resources","Sigma Lithium Resources",{"slug":563,"name":564},"lithium-prices","Lithium prices",{"slug":566,"name":567},"data-visualisation","Data Visualisation",[569],{"slug":570,"name":571,"content":572},"benjamin-roche","Benjamin Roche",{"job_title":573,"image":574,"bio":576,"linkedin":577},"Editor – Energy Transition Supply Chains",{"filename":575},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/800x800/66d6674fb8/benjamin-roche.png","Benjamin is Benchmark's Editor for Energy Transition Supply Chains, covering both upstream products like critical minerals and downstream products including energy storage systems and electric vehicles. He has previous experience covering trade flows, tariffs and the effects of geopolitics on supply chains.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminrochecontent/",{"type":579,"content":580},"doc",[581,610,632,643,655,663,672,729,738,746,752,760,769,798,807,836,845,853],{"type":582,"attrs":583,"content":584},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[585,593,605],{"text":586,"type":587,"marks":588},"A ","text",[589],{"type":590,"attrs":591},"textStyle",{"color":592},"#000000",{"text":594,"type":587,"marks":595},"May rally",[596,603],{"type":597,"attrs":598},"link",{"href":599,"uuid":600,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},"/article/why-are-lithium-prices-surging-in-china-again-","80c1a819-5c60-4407-ba5d-e6a023df02b5","_blank","story",{"type":590,"attrs":604},{"color":592},{"text":606,"type":587,"marks":607}," has seen lithium hit $24,000/t on Benchmark’s CIF Asia assessment, and RMB193,000/t EXW China – just below the psychologically important RMB 200,000/t level. The April 2026 forward curve has market participants pricing further upside into mid-year before easing modestly into 2027.",[608],{"type":590,"attrs":609},{"color":592},{"type":582,"attrs":611,"content":612},{"textAlign":49},[613,618,627],{"text":614,"type":587,"marks":615},"Benchmark's view, however, is for a more material decline. The latest market balance shows a deficit equivalent to roughly 3% of the market in 2026, followed by a return to modest surplus from 2027 onwards. With spot prices already above Benchmark's $22/kg incentive level, the question is how quickly the ",[616],{"type":590,"attrs":617},{"color":592},{"text":619,"type":587,"marks":620},"supply response",[621,625],{"type":597,"attrs":622},{"href":623,"uuid":624,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},"/article/chile-s-regulatory-gridlock-giving-argentina-upper-hand-on-lithium-output-growth","6d4b46da-d155-4b62-9e59-97f9c80037ab",{"type":590,"attrs":626},{"color":592},{"text":628,"type":587,"marks":629}," converts into delivered tonnes.",[630],{"type":590,"attrs":631},{"color":592},{"type":633,"attrs":634},"blok",{"id":635,"body":636},"2edabfdc-675d-4fb5-8d7c-fee8ff799fa3",[637],{"id":638,"_uid":639,"type":640,"component":641,"fixed_height":642,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":642,"fixed_height_tablet":642},"29037359","i-bed0d904-e0a2-45f5-b5c2-f5fe098022b9","visualisation","ContentFlourish","",{"type":644,"attrs":645,"content":647},"heading",{"level":646,"textAlign":49},2,[648],{"text":649,"type":587,"marks":650},"Jianxiawo is the single largest driver of 2026 tightness",[651,653],{"type":590,"attrs":652},{"color":592},{"type":654},"bold",{"type":582,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":587,"marks":660},"CATL's Jianxiawo operation has a nameplate capacity of 150kt LCE at full ramp by 2028, making it one of the largest single lithium assets globally. Benchmark currently models around 100kt LCE of supply from the operation in 2027 as the ramp progresses. The mine remains under Environmental Impact Assessment review with no firm restart date, and Benchmark's bearish Jiangxi outlook remains tied to politically sensitive tailings management rather than the sub-0.4% grade rumours that have circulated. The timing of resumption is the single largest swing factor in the price outlook over the next 24 months. 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Mali and Nigeria face security and port challenges.",[690],{"type":590,"attrs":691},{"color":592},{"text":693,"type":587,"marks":694}," ",[695,699],{"type":597,"attrs":696},{"href":697,"uuid":698,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},"/article/greenbushes-downgrades-production-guidance-as-ore-grade-decline-accelerates","afd41dd3-acc7-4431-9c51-de8391eaa25b",{"type":590,"attrs":700},{"color":592},{"text":702,"type":587,"marks":703},"Greenbushes",[704,706,708],{"type":597,"attrs":705},{"href":697,"uuid":698,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},{"type":590,"attrs":707},{"color":684},{"type":686},{"text":710,"type":587,"marks":711}," delivered a poor Q1 on lower-grade ore and a CGP3 ramp delay. Sigma's ramp at Grota do Cirilo continues to fall short of nameplate. Chinese hard-rock supply faces temporary explosives constraints. ",[712],{"type":590,"attrs":713},{"color":592},{"text":715,"type":587,"marks":716},"Sulphuric acid",[717,721,723],{"type":597,"attrs":718},{"href":719,"uuid":720,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},"/article/china-to-potentially-ban-sulphuric-acid-exports-as-iran-war-pressures-supply","80b2b4fa-1a1a-4ed8-8906-268000529283",{"type":590,"attrs":722},{"color":684},{"type":686},{"text":725,"type":587,"marks":726}," prices are squeezing converter margins on Strait of Hormuz pressure. Benchmark forecasts most resolving through 2027.",[727],{"type":590,"attrs":728},{"color":592},{"type":644,"attrs":730,"content":731},{"level":646,"textAlign":49},[732],{"text":733,"type":587,"marks":734},"Conversion capacity is severely underutilised",[735,737],{"type":590,"attrs":736},{"color":592},{"type":654},{"type":582,"attrs":739,"content":740},{"textAlign":49},[741],{"text":742,"type":587,"marks":743},"Global chemicals conversion is running well below nameplate capacity and is the primary bottleneck for the industry.",[744],{"type":590,"attrs":745},{"color":592},{"type":633,"attrs":747},{"id":635,"body":748},[749],{"id":750,"_uid":751,"type":640,"component":641,"fixed_height":642,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":642,"fixed_height_tablet":642},"29038239","i-4bc97429-d1cf-4491-8853-9d19a539d023",{"type":582,"attrs":753,"content":754},{"textAlign":49},[755],{"text":756,"type":587,"marks":757},"Supply response is forecast to come mostly in the form of hard rock, as it offers faster restart timelines, lower capital intensity, and infrastructure that survives care-and-maintenance.  Bald Hill has formally announced a restart. Ngungaju is progressing. Develop Global's direct shipping ore (DSO) project is expected to add tonnage in the near term. ",[758],{"type":590,"attrs":759},{"color":592},{"type":644,"attrs":761,"content":762},{"level":646,"textAlign":49},[763],{"text":764,"type":587,"marks":765},"Frontier supply continues to surprise",[766,768],{"type":590,"attrs":767},{"color":592},{"type":654},{"type":582,"attrs":770,"content":771},{"textAlign":49},[772,777,785,793],{"text":773,"type":587,"marks":774},"Huayou's takeover of Ewoyaa in Ghana signals continued Chinese comfort operating in Africa. Kalangba in Sierra Leone will begin in 2027. Zijin’s Manono deposit will begin ramping up this year.",[775],{"type":590,"attrs":776},{"color":592},{"text":693,"type":587,"marks":778},[779,783],{"type":597,"attrs":780},{"href":781,"uuid":782,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},"/article/northern-russian-lithium-mine-set-for-first-production-later-this-year","6a29bd6b-372b-4526-b3e8-76f102522617",{"type":590,"attrs":784},{"color":592},{"text":786,"type":587,"marks":787},"A northern Russian mine is set for first production later this year",[788,790,792],{"type":597,"attrs":789},{"href":781,"uuid":782,"anchor":49,"target":601,"linktype":602},{"type":590,"attrs":791},{"color":684},{"type":686},{"text":794,"type":587,"marks":795},". Mongolia is developing, with early signals from Myanmar, Mozambique, and elsewhere. This is additive supply that was not under discussion just 12 months ago.",[796],{"type":590,"attrs":797},{"color":592},{"type":644,"attrs":799,"content":800},{"level":646,"textAlign":49},[801],{"text":802,"type":587,"marks":803},"China EV sales cooling",[804,806],{"type":590,"attrs":805},{"color":592},{"type":654},{"type":582,"attrs":808,"content":809},{"textAlign":49},[810,815,823,831],{"text":811,"type":587,"marks":812},"Chinese domestic EV sales are down 17% YTD after the introduction of the new purchase tax and trade-in scaleback, offset by strong export performance (European share rose from 20% to 24% Jan–March) and continued battery energy stationary storage (BESS) strength. China's battery production hit 178 GWh in March, with LFP up 28% MoM. But headline strength is amplified by the",[813],{"type":590,"attrs":814},{"color":592},{"text":693,"type":587,"marks":816},[817,821],{"type":597,"attrs":818},{"href":819,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":820},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/how-will-chinas-vat-rebate-changes-affect-the-battery-market","url",{"type":590,"attrs":822},{"color":592},{"text":824,"type":587,"marks":825},"VAT rebate",[826,828,830],{"type":597,"attrs":827},{"href":819,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":820},{"type":590,"attrs":829},{"color":684},{"type":686},{"text":832,"type":587,"marks":833}," front-running ahead of the April 2026 step-down, and market participants have reported to Benchmark whispers of downstream inventory build. Underlying end-demand growth is softer than headline cell production implies.",[834],{"type":590,"attrs":835},{"color":592},{"type":644,"attrs":837,"content":838},{"level":646,"textAlign":49},[839],{"text":840,"type":587,"marks":841},"What this means",[842,844],{"type":590,"attrs":843},{"color":592},{"type":654},{"type":582,"attrs":846,"content":847},{"textAlign":49},[848],{"text":849,"type":587,"marks":850},"Benchmark expects chemicals prices to ease from current levels as the supply response delivers, dipping below the incentive price before returning toward it. In line with the typical commodity cycle, prices are likely to overshoot the incentive price again on the way back up as demand growth catches the next round of supply discipline.",[851],{"type":590,"attrs":852},{"color":592},{"type":582,"attrs":854,"content":855},{"textAlign":49},[856],{"text":857,"type":587,"marks":858},"The risk sits primarily with Jianxiawo; if this mine does not come back online by end 2026 or early 2027, Benchmark anticipates a delayed price correction.",[859],{"type":590,"attrs":860},{"color":592},"A May rally has seen lithium hit $24,000/t on Benchmark’s CIF Asia assessment, and RMB193,000/t EXW China – just below the psychologically important RMB 200,000/t level. The April 2026 forward curve has market participants pricing further upside into mid-year before easing modestly into 2027.",[863],{"slug":864,"name":865,"content":866},"cameron-perks","Cameron Perks",{"job_title":867,"image":868,"bio":870,"linkedin":871,"markets_covered":8},"Product Director - Lithium",{"filename":869},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/5504398139/cam-perks.png","Dr Cameron Perks is a leading global lithium expert and currently serves as Product Director for Lithium at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. With over a decade of experience in opaque mineral markets, he has led market strategy, pricing analysis, and bespoke consulting for clients ranging from junior explorers to OEMs and institutional investors. He was previously a consultant at TZMI, a geologist with the Geological Survey of NSW, and holds a PhD in Environmental Engineering.","https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronperks/","article",[874,877],{"slug":875,"name":876},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":878,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":881,"alt":642,"name":642,"focus":642,"title":642,"source":642,"filename":882,"copyright":642,"fieldtype":883,"meta_data":884,"is_external_url":50},178497099235201,"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/721x639/e533a6880b/lithium-price-and-market-balance-to-2030.png","asset",{},{"id":886,"alt":642,"name":642,"focus":642,"title":642,"source":642,"filename":887,"copyright":642,"fieldtype":883,"meta_data":888,"is_external_url":50},129064918005171,"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/bba06393d7/bm-amg-spodumene-e1548706905420.jpg",{},"A May rally has seen lithium hit $24,000/t on Benchmark’s CIF Asia assessment, and RMB193,000/t EXW China – just below the psychologically important RMB 200,000/t level.","May 20, 2026","20th May 2026",[],[],1784740299285]