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lithium won’t see $7,000 again","why-lithium-wont-see-7000-again","article/why-lithium-wont-see-7000-again",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"tags":559,"editor":560,"content":570,"excerpt":673,"featured":50,"reporter":674,"_editable":678,"component":679,"seo_title":553,"categories":680,"visibility":689,"author_company":49,"featured_image":690,"seo_description":673,"author_full_name":49,"author_job_title":49,"formattedDate":695,"formattedArticleDate":696},"a7e80cce-e3ed-40a3-9ce2-ea2a21055520","2018-08-06 00:00",[],[561],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":564},"didi-bostock","Didi Bostock",{"job_title":565,"image":566,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},"Editor - Energy Transition & Economics",{"filename":567},"https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/512x512/2c5ca5c1a3/didi-bostock.jpeg","Didi is the Energy Transition & Economics Editor at Benchmark, covering a broad range of markets across the energy transition. His remit spans from downstream sectors such as BESS and EVs, through to midstream such as new technologies and battery production, to upstream critical minerals mining. He also leads on financial analysis across these supply chains, alongside in-depth policy analysis.\n","https://www.linkedin.com/in/didi-bostock-656342198/",{"type":571,"content":572},"doc",[573,580,585,594,601,606,611,616,625,630,635,640,645,650,655,660,665],{"type":574,"attrs":575,"content":576},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[577],{"text":578,"type":579},"By Andy Leyland, Head of Forecasting & Consultancy","text",{"type":574,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583],{"text":584,"type":579},"In commodities analysis there is a long-held view that when a market enters into oversupply the price will fall toward the 90th centile of the cost curve. The logic being that this will prevent new supply from entering the market, force out high cost supply and lead to a market rebalancing. On the surface it appears a sensible argument, and is – with some notable exceptions – supported by decades worth of data from the copper, gold and iron ore markets.",{"type":574,"attrs":586,"content":587},{"textAlign":49},[588,590,592],{"text":589,"type":579},"This is also the logic that has seen a number of overly negative lithium price forecasts emerge in 2018, assuming that lithium prices  will also converge towards the cost of production by the early 2020s as the market reaches an oversupply position. Here at ",{"text":591,"type":579},"Benchmark",{"text":593,"type":579}," we disagree that the classic long-run marginal cost-based price forecast is applicable to lithium, and below we outline the key reasons behind this. Our analysis is supported by the recently launched Lithium Forecast 2040 Report, our li-ion battery cost model and most importantly, primary research.",{"type":595,"attrs":596,"content":598},"heading",{"level":597,"textAlign":49},3,[599],{"text":600,"type":579},"Cash costs are irrelevant in a “new” market",{"type":574,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604],{"text":605,"type":579},"If we go back to 2015, the lithium industry produced close to 160,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from around 15 major operations and a number of smaller Chinese suppliers. By 2025 this will be closer to 1 million tonnes from around 45 major operations, many of whom are still ramping up. The vast majority of this production will not be depreciated, with operators facing large quarterly capital repayment charges that are not reflected in a standard cash cost curve. Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast Report and models show that by 2023 a staggering 81% of supply will be undepreciated, with many other producers looking to fund new expansions at the same time.",{"type":574,"attrs":607,"content":608},{"textAlign":49},[609],{"text":610,"type":579},"When considering the cash operating position of companies, should prices fall toward the $7,000/ tonne level then very few could survive without debt holidays or defaulting on loans. Our analysis of costs on an all-in total cost basis, shows that cost support will actually be a lot closer to the $9,000/tonne level. Furthermore, the recent negative outlooks have made it all the more difficult for a supply chain looking to quadruple in short order from raising debt capital, pushing up weighted average costs of capital for the industry, and leading to many traditional sources of capital for the chemicals and mining industries to take a wait and see approach.",{"type":595,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"level":597,"textAlign":49},[614],{"text":615,"type":579},"The world doesn’t end in 2025",{"type":574,"attrs":617,"content":618},{"textAlign":49},[619,621,623],{"text":620,"type":579},"It’s only beyond 2025 that the scale of the challenge facing the lithium industry really becomes apparent, one of the reasons that ",{"text":622,"type":579},"Benchmark’s ",{"text":624,"type":579},"models and forecasts all look out to a 2040 timeframe. Even if supply does mange to roughly quadruple in the ten years from 2016-2025, the industry then faces the even more daunting task of quadrupling again in the 2026-2035 timeframe. That’s four times the money to be raised, and well over $55bn in real 2018 terms.",{"type":574,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":579},"For this to happen, and for the >$150bn commitment from the rest of the supply chain to have enough lithium for their products, including announcements from OEMs, battery mega-factories, battery pack makers and cathode producers, then the lithium supply industry needs to be investable. An industry that is struggling to cope with capital repayments is unlikely to be able to take out even more credit. Indeed, Benchmark’s base case view is that in order to meet increased demand the supply of lithium will have to almost double in just the three years after 2025. That’s over 800,000 tonnes of certified battery-grade material in just three years!",{"type":574,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":579},"For this to happen, in our opinion, average lithium spot prices in the long-term are likely to be higher than $12,500/tonne in order to incentivise sustained new investment and provide an internal rate of return that is acceptable both to the industry and those financing it. Based on our analysis and forecasts of Li-ion battery costs, spot prices at this level, and longterm offtake prices negotiated at a discount to spot, will also be able to see Li-ion equipped EV’s become increasingly cost competitive with their ICE counterparts.",{"type":595,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"level":597,"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":579},"Spodumene is just rock",{"type":574,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"text":644,"type":579},"Finally, what Benchmark analysts know, and desk-based analysts do not, is just how little Chinese conversion capacity is actually up and running against what has been announced online. Indeed, this is perhaps the biggest oversight when people talk of lithium oversupply after constructing a supply / demand balance on a lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) basis. Invariably there is an assumption that Australian spodumene, and to a lesser extent direct shipping ore (DSO), will quickly find its way into the market given the surplus of conversion capacity.",{"type":574,"attrs":646,"content":647},{"textAlign":49},[648],{"text":649,"type":579},"While much of this capacity was announced in 2017 and early 2018, in practice, only limited extra capacity has been brought online, with some projects yet to break ground. Our Long-term Lithium  Forecast Report shows a capacity utilisation of only 34% in 2018 for Chinese converters. Many of these operations, and their owners, are also new to the lithium business, having never processed spodumene or DSO before. This has led to predictable problems in ramping up operations, with issues of both quality and consistency of product still needing to be addressed.",{"type":574,"attrs":651,"content":652},{"textAlign":49},[653],{"text":654,"type":579},"How much of this material can meet the increasingly stringent requirements and certifications of what is deemed “battery grade” also leaves a question mark over forecast over-supply scenarios.",{"type":595,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"level":597,"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":579},"New Thinking Required?",{"type":574,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":579},"Not since the early days of internal combustion and the oil market has a commodity faced such rapid expected demand growth. Unfortunately for lithium, this growth comes at a time when  many credit committees have fresh memories of being bitten by commodity price falls, and major mining companies’ shareholders continue to demand a conservative investment approach following the hubris of the Super-Cycle. It’s this lack of available debt capital to the mining industry that has increasingly seen the consumers of lithium-containing products nervously looking to finance the lithium supply on which their own announced investments depend.",{"type":574,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":579,"marks":670},"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence offers a range of consulting and forecast services helping our clients understand the supply chain, the opportunities, and the pitfalls it presents. If you would like more information on our products or services, then please contact: aleyland@benchmarkminerals.com.",[671],{"type":672},"italic","By Andy Leyland, Head of Forecasting & Consultancy In commodities analysis there is a long-held view that when a market enters into oversupply the price will fall toward the 90th centile of the cost curve. The logic being that this will prevent new supply from entering the market, force out high cost supply and lead to a market rebalancing. On the surface it appears a […]",[675],{"slug":562,"name":563,"content":676},{"job_title":565,"image":677,"bio":568,"linkedin":569},{"filename":567},"\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"article\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"a7e80cce-e3ed-40a3-9ce2-ea2a21055520\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","article",[681,684,687],{"slug":682,"name":683},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":685,"name":686},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":688,"name":8},"lithium","private",{"id":49,"alt":691,"name":691,"focus":691,"title":691,"source":691,"filename":692,"copyright":691,"fieldtype":693,"meta_data":694,"is_external_url":51},"","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/3e931699d3/bm-screen-shot-2018-08-06-at-164113.png","asset",{"alt":691,"title":691,"source":691,"copyright":691},"Aug 06, 2018","6th August 2018",[],[],1792688598187]