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This briefing, part of your Benchmark Intelligence subscription, provides an overview of the key trends and dynamics that shaped battery raw material markets in the last quarter. The insights are drawn from Benchmark’s suite of battery raw material forecast reports.",{"type":567,"attrs":568,"content":570},"heading",{"level":569,"textAlign":49},2,[571],{"text":572,"type":558},"Highlights",{"type":574,"attrs":575},"blok",{"id":576,"body":577},"8dee7372-d0ea-4720-9313-704603fc336c",[578],{"id":579,"_uid":580,"type":581,"component":582,"fixed_height":583,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":583,"fixed_height_tablet":583},"29233015","i-63c8267a-f23a-46eb-9dd9-489d9e6d15f6","visualisation","ContentFlourish","",{"type":553,"attrs":585,"content":586},{"textAlign":49},[587,590,592,602,604,611,613,620],{"text":8,"type":558,"marks":588},[589],{"type":563},{"text":591,"type":558},": Although a slight surplus is forecast out to 2032 based on end-use demand, the market is tighter when considering first-use demand from cathode active material producers. This supports the firm pricing seen over the quarter. With the surplus sitting at 78kt for 2026, supply disruptions or ",{"text":593,"type":558,"marks":594},"demand changes",[595],{"type":596,"attrs":597},"link",{"href":598,"uuid":599,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/ganfeng-chairmans-speech-adds-fuel-to-lithium-price-rally-in-china","edfa71df-9b07-482a-ade9-c82250a1cf38","_self","story",{"text":603,"type":558}," could significantly tip the scales. Benchmark analysts ",{"text":605,"type":558,"marks":606},"visited Argentinian",[607],{"type":596,"attrs":608},{"href":609,"uuid":610,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/view-from-the-ground-in-argentina-a-defining-moment-for-dle","d6542838-0f53-455f-9d44-f7f7018e4d8c",{"text":612,"type":558}," and ",{"text":614,"type":558,"marks":615},"South Korean facilities",[616],{"type":596,"attrs":617},{"href":618,"uuid":619,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/benchmarks-view-from-the-ground-south-koreas-lithium-industry","bf7b0854-4415-430f-8a63-516c7f461b44",{"text":621,"type":558}," to gain a greater understanding of those operations.",{"type":553,"attrs":623,"content":624},{"textAlign":49},[625,629,631,638],{"text":626,"type":558,"marks":627},"Cobalt:",[628],{"type":563},{"text":630,"type":558}," The cobalt market is forecast to post a surplus of +61kt in 2025, as supply growth outpaces demand. However the DRC's ",{"text":632,"type":558,"marks":633},"cobalt export quotas",[634],{"type":596,"attrs":635},{"href":636,"uuid":637,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/drc-to-lift-cobalt-export-ban-and-impose-quotas-through-2027","f7770a3b-8ebe-489f-ac18-ccd3d682f730",{"text":639,"type":558}," introduced in October 2025 continue to impose a tightness on supply which kept cobalt prices high over the quarter. The continued increase in LFP's market share compared to NCM downgrades cobalt demand from the battery sector, though the EV market still accounts for 56% of battery-based cobalt demand in 2025.",{"type":553,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643,647,649,656,658,665],{"text":644,"type":558,"marks":645},"Nickel: ",[646],{"type":563},{"text":648,"type":558},"The nickel market is set to post a record 231kt surplus in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of oversupply. Indonesia, the largest nickel producer, suspended ",{"text":650,"type":558,"marks":651},"nickel smelter permits",[652],{"type":596,"attrs":653},{"href":654,"uuid":655,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/indonesias-new-smelter-ban-targets-value-added-growth","6bd7aaab-55f0-4bf4-b404-905e228e4541",{"text":657,"type":558}," and is using ",{"text":659,"type":558,"marks":660},"RKAB quotas",[661],{"type":596,"attrs":662},{"href":663,"uuid":664,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/indonesia-announces-significantly-lower-nickel-rkab-quotas","4f8ae390-bfc8-4b79-8cf8-766487872aaa",{"text":666,"type":558}," to control output. The market surplus is anticipated to continue into the early 2030s without further intervention.",{"type":553,"attrs":668,"content":669},{"textAlign":49},[670,674],{"text":671,"type":558,"marks":672},"Natural graphite: ",[673],{"type":563},{"text":675,"type":558},"Although the overall flake graphite market is in a surplus, the -100 mesh size suited for battery anode applications is in a deficit.",{"type":553,"attrs":677,"content":678},{"textAlign":49},[679,683],{"text":680,"type":558,"marks":681},"Synthetic graphite:",[682],{"type":563},{"text":684,"type":558}," Synthetic graphite material is in a deficit based on end-use demand, though when compared to cell production the market is significantly tighter and more balanced. Needle coke (the feedstock for synthetic graphite) demand grew 15% in 2025 and is expected to grow another 15% in 2026.",{"type":553,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":49},[688,693],{"text":689,"type":558,"marks":690},"For a price-focused outlook for 2026, read Benchmark's ",[691],{"type":692},"italic",{"text":694,"type":558,"marks":695},"2026 Outlook Whitepaper: A Turning Point for Critical Materials?",[696,700],{"type":596,"attrs":697},{"href":698,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":699},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/publications/special-issues/2026-outlook-whitepaper-a-turning-point-for-critical-materials","url",{"type":692},{"type":567,"attrs":702,"content":703},{"level":569,"textAlign":49},[704],{"text":705,"type":558},"Demand Overview",{"type":553,"attrs":707,"content":708},{"textAlign":49},[709,711,718,720,727],{"text":710,"type":558},"Battery demand is projected to reach 1.8TWh in 2025, marking a 27.8% year-on-year increase. ",{"text":712,"type":558,"marks":713},"Battery energy stationary storage",[714],{"type":596,"attrs":715},{"href":716,"uuid":717,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/saudis-bisha-battery-energy-storage-project-uses-30000-evs-worth-of-battery-minerals","a1c5b447-2917-45e6-832c-cc9c3e0dc267",{"text":719,"type":558}," (BESS) demand grew 144GWh in 2025 compared to 2024 which helped bolster battery demand amidst a less exciting EV market. That said, ",{"text":721,"type":558,"marks":722},"EV demand",[723],{"type":596,"attrs":724},{"href":725,"uuid":726,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/global-ev-sales-grow-28-in-2025","f9315d0f-0f85-40d9-ad5e-bbeb83022d25",{"text":728,"type":558}," still accounts for the large majority of demand and was the largest sector increase in 2025 (+245GWh).",{"type":553,"attrs":730,"content":731},{"textAlign":49},[732,736,744],{"text":733,"type":558,"marks":734},"Read the ",[735],{"type":692},{"text":737,"type":558,"marks":738},"Battery Snapshot Briefing",[739,743],{"type":596,"attrs":740},{"href":741,"uuid":742,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/publications/briefings/battery-snapshots/battery-snapshot-q4-2025","a080d30b-30a1-4fe5-95a3-34abfe4ff26a",{"type":692},{"text":745,"type":558,"marks":746}," for a more detailed  overview of battery, cathode, and anode trends over the last quarter.",[747],{"type":692},{"type":574,"attrs":749},{"id":750,"body":751},"ae7dd51c-f548-42c9-bf58-118a09756323",[752],{"id":753,"_uid":754,"type":581,"component":582,"fixed_height":583,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":583,"fixed_height_tablet":583},"29233026","i-173e450f-4256-445c-bea3-1120e346a647",{"type":574,"attrs":756},{"id":757,"body":758},"f9a9d512-0e1a-40f8-840d-0e01a4cd84b2",[759],{"id":760,"_uid":761,"type":581,"component":582,"fixed_height":583,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":583,"fixed_height_tablet":583},"29233024","i-8703e94d-0ef9-4984-8738-dc9c94411524",{"type":567,"attrs":763,"content":764},{"level":569,"textAlign":49},[765],{"text":766,"type":558},"Supply Overview",{"type":553,"attrs":768,"content":769},{"textAlign":49},[770,774,776,783,785,792],{"text":771,"type":558,"marks":772},"Lithium: ",[773],{"type":563},{"text":775,"type":558},"Global mined lithium supply is projected to grow 209kt (+14%) between 2025 and 2026. China is forecast to be the largest contributor to this growth, with over 107kt added to mined supply. ",{"text":777,"type":558,"marks":778},"Africa",[779],{"type":596,"attrs":780},{"href":781,"uuid":782,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/africa-sees-largest-lithium-supply-growth-of-any-region-in-2025","d23cb2d3-7543-4bd4-b9a8-4bd5592bad0a",{"text":784,"type":558}," will add nearly 50kt, with a mix of small and large projects across ",{"text":786,"type":558,"marks":787},"Mali",[788],{"type":596,"attrs":789},{"href":790,"uuid":791,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/weve-been-very-happy-working-in-mali-qa-with-kodal-minerals","46fba308-a86e-44a6-a21e-f57bbc14b477",{"text":793,"type":558},", Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and South Africa. Greenbushes in Australia is expected to see the largest growth in mined output of an individual mine, with 67kt added. By 2035, recycling is forecast to represent nearly a fifth of the total market. China's dominance in lithium chemical production is set to drop from 65% in 2025 to 37% by 2035.",{"type":553,"attrs":795,"content":796},{"textAlign":49},[797,801,803,810],{"text":798,"type":558,"marks":799},"Cobalt: ",[800],{"type":563},{"text":802,"type":558},"Mined cobalt output in the DRC is forecast to fall significantly in 2026 due to the ",{"text":804,"type":558,"marks":805},"export quotas",[806],{"type":596,"attrs":807},{"href":808,"uuid":809,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/videos/beyond-the-ban-unpacking-the-drcs-cobalt-export-suspension-decision","071fbb42-04e6-4a3f-aa90-61e2b1422e2f",{"text":811,"type":558}," and market uncertainty. However, Indonesia is expected to post a 4.4kt increase, supporting buyers who are seeking alternative sources. After a dip in mined cobalt output in 2025 and 2026, Benchmark is forecasting an increase in supply from 2027. Indonesia is set to double its market share to 29% by 2030.",{"type":553,"attrs":813,"content":814},{"textAlign":49},[815,819,821,828,830,834,841],{"text":816,"type":558,"marks":817},"Nickel:",[818],{"type":563},{"text":820,"type":558}," Refined nickel supply is forecast to rise 4.5% year-on-year in 2025, reaching about 3.7Mt, with nearly all growth driven by Indonesia. Outside of Indonesia, gains will be modest, with Australian production posting a drop as IGO advances with the closure of its Nova mine. ",{"text":822,"type":558,"marks":823},"MHP",[824],{"type":596,"attrs":825},{"href":826,"uuid":827,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/nickel-intermediate-tightness-to-underpin-elevated-mhp-payables-into-q4","df46a979-2900-4413-b22f-156697f65198",{"text":829,"type":558}," is the primary growth product, supported by an increase in HPAL operations. ",{"text":831,"type":558,"marks":832},"Read Benchmark's Special Issue \"",[833],{"type":692},{"text":835,"type":558,"marks":836},"Nickel Margins Shrink as Indonesia Sets the Cost Floor",[837,840],{"type":596,"attrs":838},{"href":839,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":699},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/publications/special-issues/nickel-margins-shrink-as-indonesia-sets-the-cost-floor",{"type":692},{"text":842,"type":558,"marks":843},"\".",[844],{"type":692},{"type":553,"attrs":846,"content":847},{"textAlign":49},[848,852,854,861],{"text":849,"type":558,"marks":850},"Natural Graphite:",[851],{"type":563},{"text":853,"type":558}," Flake graphite supply is forecast to grow by around 2.6% in 2025, bolstered by ",{"text":855,"type":558,"marks":856},"strong growth in Africa",[857],{"type":596,"attrs":858},{"href":859,"uuid":860,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/article/site-visit-permanent-minerals-highlights-africas-growing-flake-graphite-role","fd8d9fa2-3a92-4168-973e-760f72a44ef2",{"text":862,"type":558}," which offsets the declining production in China and the rest of the world. Whilst China has dominated the flake graphite supply (72% in 2025), this is forecast to fall to 47% by 2035, with Africa growing to 39%.",{"type":553,"attrs":864,"content":865},{"textAlign":49},[866,869,871,878],{"text":680,"type":558,"marks":867},[868],{"type":563},{"text":870,"type":558}," Supply of ",{"text":872,"type":558,"marks":873},"synthetic graphite anode material",[874],{"type":596,"attrs":875},{"href":876,"uuid":877,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":601},"/videos/synthetic-graphites-price-power-is-cost-led-dominance-here-to-stay","9aa645e0-8c14-4dd6-9b48-14c41d1d6fbe",{"text":879,"type":558}," is set to grow 36% in 2025 and another 17% in 2026. Production remains dominated by China. Whilst oil-based needle coke supply is set to drive the market in the near term, coal-based materials are anticipated to become the dominant growth market in the 2030s. China's dominance in needle coke production is expected to grow from 69% market share in 2025 to 77% by 2035.",{"type":553,"attrs":881,"content":882},{"textAlign":49},[883,887],{"text":884,"type":558,"marks":885},"For an overview of the key developments across the full mine-to-grid supply chain in 2025, read Benchmark's ",[886],{"type":692},{"text":888,"type":558,"marks":889},"Mine to Grid: 2025 Year in Review.",[890,893],{"type":596,"attrs":891},{"href":892,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":600,"linktype":699},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/publications/special-issues/mine-to-grid-2025-year-in-review",{"type":692},{"type":574,"attrs":895},{"id":896,"body":897},"460e993a-79c9-4fa1-ace6-d6c4e2fac716",[898],{"id":899,"_uid":900,"type":581,"component":582,"fixed_height":583,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":583,"fixed_height_tablet":583},"29233023","i-19fa6e70-a0c6-41d0-a02e-6f17dd018654",{"type":574,"attrs":902},{"id":903,"body":904},"a89ed7b4-b92e-4cae-9bbb-21d7c045e141",[905],{"id":906,"_uid":907,"type":581,"component":582,"fixed_height":583,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":583,"fixed_height_tablet":583},"29233018","i-e8fce755-4b63-421a-bb30-0828d738850b",{"type":574,"attrs":909},{"id":910,"body":911},"fdcacd79-f9f2-40ba-a018-cc8f18097df7",[912],{"id":913,"_uid":914,"type":581,"component":582,"fixed_height":583,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":583,"fixed_height_tablet":583},"29233020","i-cf3c12e9-9a2f-496a-ba03-c8118ac9bab0","Welcome to the Benchmark Battery Minerals Snapshot. This briefing, part of your Benchmark Intelligence subscription, provides an overview of the key trends and dynamics that shaped battery raw material markets in the last quarter. The insights are drawn from Benchmark’s suite of battery raw material forecast reports.","briefing",[918,920,922,924,927,929,932,934,936,939,942],{"slug":919,"name":261},"anode",{"slug":921,"name":298},"cathode",{"slug":923,"name":115},"cobalt",{"slug":925,"name":926},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":928,"name":8},"lithium",{"slug":930,"name":931},"manganese","Manganese",{"slug":933,"name":189},"natural-graphite",{"slug":935,"name":150},"nickel",{"slug":937,"name":938},"phosphate","Phosphate",{"slug":940,"name":941},"graphite","Graphite",{"slug":943,"name":944},"synthetic-graphite","Synthetic Graphite","private","quarterly","May 01, 2026","1st May 2026",[],[],1781195789270]