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This snapshot outlines and charts the key trends across the cell, cathode and anode markets. The data and insights in this snapshot draw on ",{"text":567,"type":558,"marks":568},"Benchmark’s Q4 2025 forecasts",[569],{"type":570,"attrs":571},"link",{"href":572,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/supply-chain-data","url",{"text":575,"type":558},".",{"type":577},"horizontal_rule",{"type":579,"attrs":580,"content":582},"heading",{"level":581,"textAlign":49},2,[583],{"text":584,"type":558},"Demand trends",{"type":586,"attrs":587},"blok",{"id":588,"body":589},"6ec89532-b609-4849-8592-a3f874d57bad",[590],{"id":591,"_uid":592,"type":593,"component":594,"fixed_height":595,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":595,"fixed_height_tablet":595},"27317250","i-a1924b99-7ac8-41f3-9d8c-3b59ea2883e6","visualisation","ContentFlourish","",{"type":597,"content":598},"bullet_list",[599,615,638,661,668,688,695],{"type":600,"content":601},"list_item",[602],{"type":553,"attrs":603,"content":604},{"textAlign":49},[605,607,613],{"text":606,"type":558},"Benchmark increased its 2025 forecast for cell demand by 9% compared to its Q3 2025 forecast, due to changes in demand adjustment factors. ",{"text":608,"type":558,"marks":609},"2025 battery demand",[610],{"type":570,"attrs":611},{"href":612,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/battery-demand-to-reach-1-6-twh-in-2025-as-benchmark-week-comes-to-a-close-in-la",{"text":614,"type":558}," is forecast to have increased 27.8% compared to 2024 (as of the Q4 2025 forecast).",{"type":600,"content":616},[617],{"type":553,"attrs":618,"content":619},{"textAlign":49},[620,622,628,630,636],{"text":621,"type":558},"Over 300 GWh of new ",{"text":623,"type":558,"marks":624},"BESS capacity",[625],{"type":570,"attrs":626},{"href":627,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-bess-installations-in-december-surpass-us-2025-total",{"text":629,"type":558}," is forecast to have been deployed in 2025, ",{"text":631,"type":558,"marks":632},"up 44% from 211 GWh",[633],{"type":570,"attrs":634},{"href":635,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/global-bess-installments-increase-29-y-o-y",{"text":637,"type":558}," of new capacity deployed in 2024. New capacity installations are forecast to increase a further 51% in 2026.",{"type":600,"content":639},[640],{"type":553,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643,645,651,653,659],{"text":644,"type":558},"Although the ",{"text":646,"type":558,"marks":647},"BESS market",[648],{"type":570,"attrs":649},{"href":650,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/saudis-bisha-battery-energy-storage-project-uses-30000-evs-worth-of-battery-minerals",{"text":652,"type":558}," is rapidly growing, ",{"text":654,"type":558,"marks":655},"EVs still represent",[656],{"type":570,"attrs":657},{"href":658,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/global-ev-sales-reach-20-7-million-units-in-2025-growing-by-20",{"text":660,"type":558}," the largest share of the battery market (76% in 2025).",{"type":600,"content":662},[663],{"type":553,"attrs":664,"content":665},{"textAlign":49},[666],{"text":667,"type":558},"In the US, Benchmark anticipates a 30% drop in EV sales in 2026. BESS demand is forecast to tick up, though this is not enough to stave off an overall decrease in battery demand.",{"type":600,"content":669},[670],{"type":553,"attrs":671,"content":672},{"textAlign":49},[673,678,685],{"text":674,"type":558,"marks":675},"Download Benchmark’s special issue reviewing the ",[676],{"type":677},"italic",{"text":679,"type":558,"marks":680},"first year of Trump 2.0",[681,684],{"type":570,"attrs":682},{"href":683,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/publications/special-issues/1351985",{"type":677},{"text":575,"type":558,"marks":686},[687],{"type":677},{"type":600,"content":689},[690],{"type":553,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":49},[693],{"text":694,"type":558},"Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery deployment has increased 43% year-to-date on the back of strong growth in the Chinese EV market and the global BESS market. As such, LFP’s share of the 2025 market has increased to 60% compared to 52% in 2024. It is forecast to grow further to 71% by 2030.",{"type":600,"content":696},[697],{"type":553,"attrs":698,"content":699},{"textAlign":49},[700],{"text":701,"type":558},"On the anode side, Benchmark increased its forecast for silicon-bearing anodes, especially in the EV sector, on the back of technical developments in the area. Graphite–silicon composite anodes represent 5% of the market in 2025. By 2035, this is set to grow to 10%, with a further 4% taken up by silicon engineered anodes (with a Si loading above 10 wt%). In 2025, synthetic graphite anodes represent 81% of the market.",{"type":577},{"type":579,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"level":581,"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":558},"Supply trends",{"type":586,"attrs":709},{"id":588,"body":710},[711],{"id":712,"_uid":713,"type":593,"component":594,"fixed_height":595,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":595,"fixed_height_tablet":595},"27317244","i-365d2889-e8ec-42a9-b0a1-99eb356da367",{"type":597,"content":715},[716,730,737,752,780,787],{"type":600,"content":717},[718],{"type":553,"attrs":719,"content":720},{"textAlign":49},[721,723,729],{"text":722,"type":558},"Benchmark’s 2025 battery cell production forecast increased 12% compared to last quarter, primarily on the back of large increases in BESS cell output in China. North America also saw a notable uptick in its ",{"text":724,"type":558,"marks":725},"LFP cell pipeline",[726],{"type":570,"attrs":727},{"href":728,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/north-america-sees-lfp-production-capacity-pipeline-grow-driven-by-the-bess-market",{"text":575,"type":558},{"type":600,"content":731},[732],{"type":553,"attrs":733,"content":734},{"textAlign":49},[735],{"text":736,"type":558},"Overall, cell supply increased 36% in 2025 compared to 2024, cathode active material (CAM) supply increased 42%, and anode active material (AAM) supply increased 32%.",{"type":600,"content":738},[739],{"type":553,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":49},[742,744,750],{"text":743,"type":558},"The largest Chinese gigafactory added to the pipeline in Q4 2025 is the 33.6 GWh Tier 1 facility by CALB/Leapmotor. Outside of China, the largest addition is ",{"text":745,"type":558,"marks":746},"Inobat’s Tier 3 facility in Spain",[747],{"type":570,"attrs":748},{"href":749,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/inobats-planned-spanish-gigafactory-gains-state-support",{"text":751,"type":558},", with a capacity of 32 GWh due online in 2027.",{"type":600,"content":753},[754],{"type":553,"attrs":755,"content":756},{"textAlign":49},[757,763,765,771,773,779],{"text":758,"type":558,"marks":759},"CATL",[760],{"type":570,"attrs":761},{"href":762,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/catl-posts-record-results-as-efficiency-and-capacity-expansion-drive-profit-growth",{"text":764,"type":558}," reportedly began mass production of its Gen V LFP cells in mid-November 2025. The company also took a controlling stake (51%) in Jiangxi Shenghua New Materials (the cathode subsidiary of Fulin Precision) in September, strengthening its position in the midstream. The technology to produce such CAM material was subject to ",{"text":766,"type":558,"marks":767},"China’s export controls",[768],{"type":570,"attrs":769},{"href":770,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-proposes-restrictions-on-lithium-and-cathode-technology-exports",{"text":772,"type":558},", though these have now been suspended until ",{"text":774,"type":558,"marks":775},"10 November 2026",[776],{"type":570,"attrs":777},{"href":778,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":573},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-delays-rare-earth-export-controls-after-us-china-trade-talks",{"text":575,"type":558},{"type":600,"content":781},[782],{"type":553,"attrs":783,"content":784},{"textAlign":49},[785],{"text":786,"type":558},"Compared to 2024, natural graphite and synthetic graphite anode active material supply is forecast to have risen by 16% and 36%, respectively, in 2025, driven by China.",{"type":600,"content":788},[789],{"type":553,"attrs":790,"content":791},{"textAlign":49},[792],{"text":793,"type":558},"The top 15 companies are forecast to represent 84%, 56%, and 79% of the cell, cathode, and anode markets in 2025, respectively.",{"type":586,"attrs":795},{"id":588,"body":796},[797],{"id":798,"_uid":799,"type":593,"component":594,"fixed_height":595,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":595,"fixed_height_tablet":595},"27317249","i-e5b799bc-2ba4-4cc5-8eb4-36c6684b168b",{"type":577},{"type":579,"attrs":802,"content":803},{"level":581,"textAlign":49},[804],{"text":805,"type":558},"Market balances",{"type":597,"content":807},[808,815,822,829],{"type":600,"content":809},[810],{"type":553,"attrs":811,"content":812},{"textAlign":49},[813],{"text":814,"type":558},"Overall, the cell market is expected to be in surplus until 2034 in Benchmark’s base case scenario. Although China is the only region currently in a cell production surplus, North America is set to enter a surplus in 2027 on the back of reduced EV demand in the US. For NCM cell chemistries, this North American surplus is set to begin in 2026.",{"type":600,"content":816},[817],{"type":553,"attrs":818,"content":819},{"textAlign":49},[820],{"text":821,"type":558},"The global cathode market is forecast to be oversupplied until 2031, with the Asian and Chinese markets significantly oversupplied in the near term. LFP specifically is forecast to enter a deficit from 2030, and mid-nickel NCM chemistries in 2029. LCO and NCA cathode active materials are anticipated to remain in surplus through to 2040.",{"type":600,"content":823},[824],{"type":553,"attrs":825,"content":826},{"textAlign":49},[827],{"text":828,"type":558},"Although the CAM market is oversupplied based on end-use demand, the overproduction of battery cells means the market balance for CAM could be tighter than anticipated, with a deficit under this model as early as 2028. However, aggressive destocking of cells and adjustments in gigafactory utilisation rates could push this back to the end of the decade.",{"type":600,"content":830},[831],{"type":553,"attrs":832,"content":833},{"textAlign":49},[834],{"text":835,"type":558},"The anode active material market is forecast to be in surplus until 2035. However, demand growth for natural graphite AAM outpaces supply growth and is therefore expected to fall into a deficit earlier (2031). China is significantly oversupplied, with 2030 production forecast to be 162% greater than domestic demand.",{"type":586,"attrs":837},{"id":588,"body":838},[839],{"id":840,"_uid":841,"type":593,"component":594,"fixed_height":595,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":595,"fixed_height_tablet":595},"27317241","i-cd44be6c-507b-4184-b4af-6035f2913cc1","Welcome to your Quarterly Battery Snapshot, part of your Benchmark Source subscription. This snapshot outlines and charts the key trends across the cell, cathode and anode markets. The data and insights in this snapshot draw on Benchmark’s Q4 2025 forecasts. Demand trends Supply trends Market balances","briefing",[845,847,850,852,854],{"slug":846,"name":261},"anode",{"slug":848,"name":849},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":851,"name":298},"cathode",{"slug":853,"name":8},"lithium",{"slug":855,"name":856},"silicon-anode","Silicon Anode","private","quarterly","Jan 26, 2026","26th January 2026",[],[],1783682727749]