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Mid-Nickel",103.5,99.73,3.78,13.78,6.78,[518,519,520,522,524,526,528,530,532,534,536,538],{"date":213,"value":512},{"date":216,"value":513},{"date":219,"value":521},99.19,{"date":222,"value":523},96.02,{"date":225,"value":525},98.23,{"date":467,"value":527},99.24,{"date":329,"value":529},101.29,{"date":339,"value":531},87.61,{"date":341,"value":533},92.44,{"date":344,"value":535},90.96,{"date":347,"value":537},92.24,{"date":350,"value":539},95.09,{"id":541,"uuid":542,"name":543,"slug":544,"full_slug":545,"content":546,"relatedArticles":818,"relatedVideos":819},195553650655765,"8d546491-c5d4-4601-b64d-c0c8fb94d257","Geo-economic and policy briefing - Edition 6 2026","geo-economic-and-policy-briefing-edition-6-2026","publications/briefings/geo-economic-and-policy-briefings/geo-economic-and-policy-briefing-edition-6-2026",{"_uid":547,"date":548,"content":549,"excerpt":772,"component":773,"categories":774,"visibility":815,"publication_frequency":188,"formattedDate":816,"formattedArticleDate":817},"ba20ba81-b3b9-4acd-a732-54ddb2a3d58f","2026-07-07 00:00",{"type":550,"content":551},"doc",[552,571,588,593,598,611,616,626,634,660,665,678,685,690,695,700,705,719,725,739,747,755,763,770],{"type":553,"attrs":554,"content":556},"heading",{"level":555,"textAlign":49},4,[557,567],{"text":558,"type":559,"marks":560},"1.      ","text",[561,565],{"type":562,"attrs":563},"textStyle",{"color":564},"",{"type":566},"bold",{"text":568,"type":559,"marks":569},"Geo-economic tensions with China set to return to the top of US and EU policy agendas",[570],{"type":566},{"type":572,"attrs":573,"content":575},"paragraph",{"textAlign":574},"justify",[576,578,586],{"text":577,"type":559},"Geo-economic tensions with China are set to move back to the top of the US and EU policy agendas in the coming months. The European Commission has set an October deadline for “tangible results” in addressing its €360bn goods deficit with China, while ",{"text":579,"type":559,"marks":580},"China’s suspension of its October 2025 export control package",[581],{"type":582,"attrs":583},"link",{"href":584,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":585},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-delays-rare-earth-export-controls-after-us-china-trade-talks","url",{"text":587,"type":559}," is due to expire on 10 November 2026.",{"type":572,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":574},[591],{"text":592,"type":559},"If reinstated, the October 2025 package would tighten China’s grip over the battery and rare earth supply chains. The measures include export controls on five additional rare earth elements — holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium — alongside the reactivation of Announcement 58. That measure imposes licensing requirements on lithium-ion cells above 300Wh/kg, synthetic graphite anode materials, and related production equipment and technology. Export approvals are handled on a case-by-case basis by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), with opaque timelines and broad administrative discretion. In practice, licensing delays can function as a supply constraint, particularly in markets where China retains dominant control over equipment, processing know-how and intermediate materials.",{"type":572,"attrs":594,"content":595},{"textAlign":574},[596],{"text":597,"type":559},"There is a particular risk of escalation around the reapplication of the 0.1% de minimis rule. This would extend Chinese export licensing requirements to magnet-containing products manufactured outside China, creating extraterritorial exposure across EV drivetrains, battery systems and a wider range of downstream components. Even limited Chinese content could trigger compliance requirements.",{"type":572,"attrs":599,"content":600},{"textAlign":574},[601,603,609],{"text":602,"type":559},"Supply pressure, however, is already evident. ",{"text":604,"type":559,"marks":605},"China’s April 2025 licensing regime",[606],{"type":582,"attrs":607},{"href":608,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":585},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/article/china-tightens-rare-earth-exports-amid-escalating-trade-tensions-with-us",{"text":610,"type":559}," covering permanent magnets and seven medium- and heavy-rare earth elements, including dysprosium and terbium, remains in force. Approval timelines have stretched beyond 45 days and remain subject to discretionary review, contributing to supply disruptions and assembly-line stoppages through 2025.",{"type":572,"attrs":612,"content":613},{"textAlign":574},[614],{"text":615,"type":559},"Alongside the suspended October 2025 export controls, China has also rolled out a broader outbound investment screening and economic security framework (see table below), reinforcing concerns in both Washington and Brussels over the strategic direction of Chinese industrial policy.",{"type":617,"attrs":618},"blok",{"id":619,"body":620},"f69c5167-6682-4017-ba57-06b547b1a3b8",[621],{"id":622,"_uid":623,"type":624,"component":625,"fixed_height":564,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":564,"fixed_height_tablet":564},"29581227","i-5840ad97-d16b-48aa-b62d-621118684cfc","visualisation","ContentFlourish",{"type":553,"attrs":627,"content":629},{"level":628,"textAlign":574},5,[630],{"text":631,"type":559,"marks":632},"EU and US responses to China shock 2.0 are likely to intensify",[633],{"type":566},{"type":572,"attrs":635,"content":636},{"textAlign":574},[637,639,645,647,652,654,658],{"text":638,"type":559},"Europe continues to grapple with a widening trade imbalance with China, increasingly framed as a “China shock 2.0”. Chinese-built plug-in hybrid electric vehicle ",{"text":640,"type":559,"marks":641},"(PHEV) exports to Europe in 2025 rose more than fourfold compared to 2024",[642],{"type":582,"attrs":643},{"href":644,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":585},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/article/eu-looking-to-close-loophole-for-chinese-phevs",{"text":646,"type":559},", and sales rose significantly again in 2026, with a threefold increase in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2025. Manufacturers including BYD, Changan and SAIC, which are responsible for 90% of Chinese PHEV sales in the region so far in 2026, increased export volumes to avoid the higher EU countervailing duties on BEVs. At the same time, competitive pressure on European automakers is intensifying. Volkswagen has reportedly said it is preparing to cut around 100,000 jobs ",{"text":648,"type":559,"marks":649},"–",[650],{"type":562,"attrs":651},{"color":564},{"text":653,"type":559}," roughly 15% of its global workforce ",{"text":648,"type":559,"marks":655},[656],{"type":562,"attrs":657},{"color":564},{"text":659,"type":559}," and halt production at four German sites, while its first-quarter sales in China fell by 20%.",{"type":572,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":574},[663],{"text":664,"type":559},"The EU’s current trade defence policy toolkit, including countervailing duties on EVs, has so far done little to narrow the underlying trade gap. Attention is therefore shifting towards more interventionist measures, including local content requirements, intellectual property and joint venture conditions for Chinese investments, and possible duties on imported batteries and PHEVs.",{"type":572,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"textAlign":574},[668,670,676],{"text":669,"type":559},"The US, meanwhile, is pursuing a supply chain strategy aimed at excluding Chinese corporate involvement. Measures already in place or underway include additional Section 301 tariffs, Prohibited Foreign Entity (PFE) rules that restrict access to US tax credits for processed critical minerals, battery components and energy storage, connected vehicle regulations that limit the use of Chinese software and hardware for model years 2027 and 2030, ",{"text":671,"type":559,"marks":672},"driving the exit of EV manufacturers like Polestar",[673],{"type":582,"attrs":674},{"href":675,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":585},"https://intelligence.benchmarkminerals.com/article/polestar-to-be-banned-from-us-market-under-connected-vehicle-rule",{"text":677,"type":559},", and procurement restrictions linked to the defence sector.",{"type":553,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"level":628,"textAlign":574},[681],{"text":682,"type":559,"marks":683},"What this means for the industry",[684],{"type":566},{"type":572,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":574},[688],{"text":689,"type":559},"For industry, the direction of travel looks clear: continued higher procurement costs for ex-China supply, price bifurcation, particularly for downstream buyers, and tighter supply.",{"type":572,"attrs":691,"content":692},{"textAlign":574},[693],{"text":694,"type":559},"Ex-China premiums for graphite, rare earths, and magnet materials are set to rise further as licensing risk, longer lead times, and policy uncertainty directly feed into procurement costs. At the same time, diversification is accelerating but remains constrained by China’s entrenched position in processing technology, equipment and intermediate supply. Heavy rare-earth magnets remain one of the clearest bottlenecks for both defence applications and EV motors.",{"type":572,"attrs":696,"content":697},{"textAlign":574},[698],{"text":699,"type":559},"This is already changing corporate behaviour. Corporate stockpiling is rising, sourcing strategies are becoming more defensive, and US and Asian OEMs in particular are placing greater value on secure, non-Chinese supply, even at a premium.",{"type":572,"attrs":701,"content":702},{"textAlign":574},[703],{"text":704,"type":559},"Given rising policy unpredictability and the looming risk of Chinese export controls, supply chain disruption should no longer be considered a tail risk but rather a core operating condition. November 2026 will define the pace and direction of the next phase.",{"type":553,"attrs":706,"content":707},{"level":555,"textAlign":574},[708,712],{"text":709,"type":559,"marks":710},"2. Monthly round-up of ",[711],{"type":566},{"text":713,"type":559,"marks":714},"the remaining key geopolitical and policy updates",[715,718],{"type":562,"attrs":716},{"color":717},"black",{"type":566},{"type":617,"attrs":720},{"id":619,"body":721},[722],{"id":723,"_uid":724,"type":624,"component":625,"fixed_height":564,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":564,"fixed_height_tablet":564},"29581172","i-8c426212-d73e-44fa-9e02-f24b1b74ea8d",{"type":553,"attrs":726,"content":727},{"level":555,"textAlign":574},[728,733],{"text":729,"type":559,"marks":730},"3. ",[731],{"type":562,"attrs":732},{"color":717},{"text":734,"type":559,"marks":735},"Key Macro-economic Indicators",[736,738],{"type":562,"attrs":737},{"color":717},{"type":566},{"type":572,"attrs":740,"content":741},{"textAlign":574},[742],{"text":743,"type":559,"marks":744},"With oil prices on the slide globally following the tentative peace deal between the US and Iran, there are indications of a potential dip in US inflation. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has said inflationary risks are down and reiterated his commitment to hitting the central bank’s 2% target. The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in June, meanwhile, with the 57,000 new roles a significant dip after May’s 129,000.",[745],{"type":562,"attrs":746},{"color":717},{"type":572,"attrs":748,"content":749},{"textAlign":574},[750],{"text":751,"type":559,"marks":752},"In China, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 50 from 50.3 in April, while the country’s infrastructure and machinery investment was 4.1% lower in May than the same month in 2025. The World Bank has also revised its projection of Chinese growth down to 4.4% in 2026 due to concerns about its housing market.",[753],{"type":562,"attrs":754},{"color":717},{"type":572,"attrs":756,"content":757},{"textAlign":49},[758],{"text":759,"type":559,"marks":760},"In Europe, the eurozone’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May. Most of the region’s inflation was driven by rising energy prices (8.7%), while services also saw 3.2% price growth",[761],{"type":562,"attrs":762},{"color":717},{"type":617,"attrs":764},{"id":619,"body":765},[766],{"id":767,"_uid":768,"type":769,"component":625,"fixed_height":564,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":564,"fixed_height_tablet":564},"3698939","i-73bf9c5f-bb0a-4445-878a-b2dfac71c28d","story",{"type":572,"attrs":771},{"textAlign":574},"This is your monthly geo-economic and policy briefing, part of your Benchmark Intelligence subscription. Every month, this briefing examines the key geo-economic and policy trends shaping the mine-to-grid supply chains, from critical minerals to electric vehicles (EVs). ","briefing",[775,777,780,783,786,789,792,795,798,801,804,806,808,810,812],{"slug":776,"name":261},"anode",{"slug":778,"name":779},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":781,"name":782},"battery-technology","Battery Technology",{"slug":784,"name":785},"copper","Copper",{"slug":787,"name":788},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":790,"name":791},"ess","ESS",{"slug":793,"name":794},"ev","EV",{"slug":796,"name":797},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":799,"name":800},"gigafactories","Battery & Gigafactory",{"slug":802,"name":803},"graphite","Graphite",{"slug":805,"name":8},"lithium",{"slug":807,"name":189},"natural-graphite",{"slug":809,"name":150},"nickel",{"slug":811,"name":414},"rare-earths",{"slug":813,"name":814},"synthetic-graphite","Synthetic Graphite","private","Jul 07, 2026","7th July 2026",[],[],1783682728782]