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and Policy Briefing – October 2025","geo-economic-and-policy-briefing-october-2025","publications/briefings/geo-economic-and-policy-briefings/geo-economic-and-policy-briefing-october-2025",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"content":559,"excerpt":708,"_editable":709,"component":710,"categories":711,"visibility":724,"publication_frequency":725,"formattedDate":726,"formattedArticleDate":727,"folder":728},"a8ecc308-a0fc-43e7-84b0-2ee4d50f9952","2025-10-29 00:00",{"type":560,"content":561},"doc",[562,569,578,583,588,600,608,613,618,625,630,635,640,648,655,660,665,670,678,683,688,693,698,703],{"type":563,"attrs":564,"content":565},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[566],{"text":567,"type":568},"This is your monthly geo-economic and policy briefing, part of your Benchmark Source subscription. Every month, this briefing examines the key geo-economic and policy trends shaping the mine-to-grid supply chains, from critical minerals to electric vehicles (EVs). ","text",{"type":570,"attrs":571,"content":573},"heading",{"level":572,"textAlign":49},4,[574,576],{"text":575,"type":568},"1. ",{"text":577,"type":568},"China issues a new round of export controls impacting the rare earth and battery supply chains",{"type":563,"attrs":579,"content":580},{"textAlign":49},[581],{"text":582,"type":568},"On October 9, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued new export controls on rare earth elements (REEs) and REE-related technologies and equipment, as well as on batteries, battery materials and related equipment and technologies. These export controls will normally enter into force on November 8, just before a 90-day trade truce with the US expires. The announcements follow earlier export controls on medium and heavy REEs and permanent magnets in April 2025, as well as on LFP/LMFP cathode and lithium processing technologies in July 2025. Even if China does not impose export controls on REEs as a result of a framework deal with the US, it could still weaponise its dominance of critical minerals as before.  ",{"type":563,"attrs":584,"content":585},{"textAlign":49},[586],{"text":587,"type":568},"The previously announced export controls on rare earth caused a substantial change to the market. In April rare earth permanent magnet exports saw a strong reduction as licences were processed. This underpins the potential effect these type of controls the can have on these markets.",{"type":589,"attrs":590},"blok",{"id":591,"body":592},"4e31a60b-88c2-4c8b-a045-3e14ccde31fd",[593],{"id":594,"_uid":595,"type":596,"_editable":597,"component":598,"fixed_height":599,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":599,"fixed_height_tablet":599},"25892011","i-dbb7b5e9-f754-470a-97ec-c176fe3d4d78","visualisation","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-dbb7b5e9-f754-470a-97ec-c176fe3d4d78\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","ContentFlourish","",{"type":563,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":49},[603],{"text":604,"type":568,"marks":605},"Restrictions on CAM and AAM exports",[606],{"type":607},"bold",{"type":563,"attrs":609,"content":610},{"textAlign":49},[611],{"text":612,"type":568},"The new cathode restrictions expand coverage to include material exports for LFP CAM over certain technical specifications, and all NCM and NCA precursor material exports, as well as associated equipment. Whilst market sentiment suggests licenses are likely to be granted handily, there remain potential impacts for the North American market.",{"type":563,"attrs":614,"content":615},{"textAlign":49},[616],{"text":617,"type":568},"October also saw MOFCOM announce new export control measures on dual-use products, which encompass materials related to graphite anode active material. Benchmark expects short term delays on orders for AAM, CAM, and pCAM as such whilst licenses are granted.",{"type":563,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621],{"text":622,"type":568,"marks":623},"Restrictions on batteries and manufacturing equipment",[624],{"type":607},{"type":563,"attrs":626,"content":627},{"textAlign":49},[628],{"text":629,"type":568},"The new rules also cover the export of high-performance lithium-ion batteries; notably, this applies to batteries or packs with an energy density of 300Wh/kg or higher. In addition, the rules also list several controlled items that are key to battery manufacturing, including specialised manufacturing equipment such as winding machines, stacking machines, electrolyte-injection systems, hot presses, formation/grading systems and sorting cabinets.",{"type":563,"attrs":631,"content":632},{"textAlign":49},[633],{"text":634,"type":568},"Current state-of-the-art batteries used in the EV market are comfortably below this 300Wh/kg level, with commercial LFP cells such as CATL’s Shenxing battery at 180Wh/kg, LMFP cells planned for production in the coming years at ~220Wh/kg, and NCM/NCA cells typically ~260Wh/kg, with CATL’s best-in-class Qilin battery offering a pack energy density of 255Wh/kg. Therefore, these restrictions look to focus on the next generation – silicon dominant, lithium metal and solid state – batteries that are at present, often prototypes and if commercial produced in low volumes, targeted for niche applications such as use in drones.  The restrictions here look to safeguard the highest IP and manufacturing expertise and will therefore have minimal impact on the broader battery market.",{"type":563,"attrs":636,"content":637},{"textAlign":49},[638],{"text":639,"type":568},"Restrictions on equipment could be more significant due to the global reliance on China. Alternative suppliers from Japan and Korea do exist but typically charge a 20-40% premium and face longer lead times.",{"type":563,"attrs":641,"content":642},{"textAlign":49},[643],{"type":644,"attrs":645},"image",{"id":49,"alt":599,"src":646,"title":49,"source":49,"copyright":49,"meta_data":647},"https://res.cloudinary.com/benchmarkminerals/images/w_1024,h_579,c_scale/f_auto,q_auto/v1761738000/www-production/Screenshot-2025-10-28-123024_13492679a453/Screenshot-2025-10-28-123024_13492679a453.png?_i=AA",{},{"type":563,"attrs":649,"content":650},{"textAlign":49},[651],{"text":652,"type":568,"marks":653},"Rare earths export restrictions",[654],{"type":607},{"type":563,"attrs":656,"content":657},{"textAlign":49},[658],{"text":659,"type":568},"China’s latest export controls mark a major escalation in its strategic tightening on the REE supply chain. The new license regime extends far beyond previous restrictions – applying not only to Chinese origin rare earth materials, but also to magnets and technologies produced overseas using Chinese feedstock or know-how. Building on the December 2023 and April 2025 measures, foreign companies must obtain a license to export products containing even trace amounts (>=0.1% by value) of Chinese origin medium and heavy rare earths or derived using Chinese technology, regardless of where production occurs.",{"type":563,"attrs":661,"content":662},{"textAlign":49},[663],{"text":664,"type":568},"The updated policy will impact LREE exports as well, as there is a technology overlap. For Western governments and companies, this underscores the urgency of building independent technological capabilities, not just mines and refineries, but also the tools and chemistries that underpin processing. This signals China’s intent to assert full visibility and leverage across the global REE value chain.",{"type":570,"attrs":666,"content":667},{"level":572,"textAlign":49},[668],{"text":669,"type":568},"2. Monthly round-up of the remaining key geopolitical and policy updates",{"type":589,"attrs":671},{"id":672,"body":673},"0a1ba307-be14-4869-a8df-8756e6571ffa",[674],{"id":675,"_uid":676,"type":596,"_editable":677,"component":598,"fixed_height":599,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":599,"fixed_height_tablet":599},"25892414","i-cf2df366-f8a3-4a73-a469-26f12a719ee3","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-cf2df366-f8a3-4a73-a469-26f12a719ee3\", \"id\": \"\"}-->",{"type":570,"attrs":679,"content":680},{"level":572,"textAlign":49},[681],{"text":682,"type":568},"3. Key Macro-economic Indicators",{"type":563,"attrs":684,"content":685},{"textAlign":49},[686],{"text":687,"type":568},"US growth momentum has moderated, with fresh data revealing that when data centre activity is excluded, real GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was closer to 0.1% rather than the 2% reported. The outsized contribution from AI-driven infrastructure continues to inflate headline figures, prompting speculation among analysts that the current technology boom may be running ahead of its fundamentals. Valuations across the sector remain elevated, and some investors are questioning whether the market is showing early signs of an AI-bubble, given the disconnect between capital expenditure and near-term earnings capacity.",{"type":563,"attrs":689,"content":690},{"textAlign":49},[691],{"text":692,"type":568},"In China, policymakers have turned once again to stimulus via state-owned policy banks, deploying more than half of a new 500 billion-yuan ($70.4 billion) facility aimed at financing infrastructure and industrial upgrades across a dozen economically advanced provinces. This comes as Beijing aims to sustain momentum amid soft export demand and persistent property-sector weakness.",{"type":563,"attrs":694,"content":695},{"textAlign":49},[696],{"text":697,"type":568},"Meanwhile, gold prices have eased after hitting a record high of $4,380, the drop may have been caused by holders choosing to cash in, selling by Chinese banks or geopolitical tensions easing as US-China relations have the potential to cool with the possibility of a trade deal.",{"type":563,"attrs":699,"content":700},{"textAlign":49},[701],{"text":702,"type":568},"Across Europe, the latest IMF regional outlook warns that trade tariffs and sustained policy uncertainty could trim growth by around 0.5 percentage points through 2025-26, adding to the region’s already fragile outlook.",{"type":563,"attrs":704,"content":705},{"textAlign":49},[706],{"text":707,"type":568},"Inflation has continued to diverge across key economies: price pressures in the US have eased but remain above target; China faces mild deflationary trends as consumer demand softens; and Europe continues to battle sticky core inflation, particularly in services.","This is your monthly geo-economic and policy briefing, part of your Benchmark Source subscription. Every month, this briefing examines the key geo-economic and policy trends shaping the mine-to-grid supply chains, from critical minerals to electric vehicles (EVs). 1. China issues a new round of export controls impacting the rare earth and battery supply chains On […]","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"briefing\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"a8ecc308-a0fc-43e7-84b0-2ee4d50f9952\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","briefing",[712,715,718,721],{"slug":713,"name":714},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":716,"name":717},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":719,"name":720},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":722,"name":723},"new-energy","New Energy","private","monthly","Oct 29, 2025","29th October 2025",{"slug":729,"title":730,"cardImage":731,"description":732,"frequency":733},"geo-economic-and-policy-briefings","Geo Economic And Policy Briefings","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/x/c23333c1e3/geo-economic-policy-hero.avif","This Briefing unpacks the month's key policies impacting global and regional energy transition supply chains.","Monthly",[],[],1792688627829]