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and Policy Briefing – September 2025","geo-economic-and-policy-briefing-september-2025","publications/briefings/geo-economic-and-policy-briefings/geo-economic-and-policy-briefing-september-2025",{"_uid":557,"date":558,"content":559,"excerpt":704,"_editable":705,"component":706,"categories":707,"visibility":720,"publication_frequency":721,"formattedDate":722,"formattedArticleDate":723,"folder":724},"26feeb65-adb4-4c6d-9e0a-f9736f867ef2","2025-10-03 00:00",{"type":560,"content":561},"doc",[562,569,580,601,618,626,639,650,658,666,671,679,684,689,694,699],{"type":563,"attrs":564,"content":565},"paragraph",{"textAlign":49},[566],{"text":567,"type":568},"This is your monthly geo-economic and policy briefing, part of your Benchmark Source subscription. Every month, this briefing examines the key geo-economic and policy trends shaping the mine-to-grid supply chains, from critical minerals to electric vehicles (EVs). ","text",{"type":570,"attrs":571,"content":573},"heading",{"level":572,"textAlign":49},4,[574,576,578],{"text":575,"type":568},"1. While electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining ground in Europe, industrial and political pushback against the EU’s 2035 zero CO",{"text":577,"type":568},"2",{"text":579,"type":568}," emission target is growing",{"type":563,"attrs":581,"content":582},{"textAlign":49},[583,591,593,599],{"text":584,"type":568,"marks":585},"Global EV sales have now reached 12.5 million units in the opening eight months of the year and have grown 25% year-on-year ",[586],{"type":587,"attrs":588},"link",{"href":589,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},"https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/global-ev-sales-grow-by-5-m-o-m-and-by-15-y-o-y-in-august-2025","url",{"text":592,"type":568},"(Jan-Aug 2025 vs. Jan-Aug 2024). The European EV market (EU and UK areas) has grown by 31% year-to-date (YTD), with strong momentum in both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) markets, up 31% and 30% respectively, reaching 2.6 million units sold and a ",{"text":594,"type":568,"marks":595},"market share of 18% for BEVs and 25% when also including PHEVs.",[596],{"type":587,"attrs":597},{"href":598,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},"",{"text":600,"type":568}," The EV markets in primary EU member states, such as Germany (45% YTD growth), Spain (99% YTD growth), and Italy (45% YTD growth), have grown significantly. ",{"type":563,"attrs":602,"content":603},{"textAlign":49},[604,606,607,609,610,612,613,615,616],{"text":605,"type":568},"Despite the positive EV market trend in Europe, political and industry pressure is mounting, including from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the German automotive industry, on the EU Commission to relax the EU’s 2035 zero CO",{"text":577,"type":568},{"text":608,"type":568}," emission target, with some calling the 2035 target unfeasible. This target aims for a 100% reduction in CO",{"text":577,"type":568},{"text":611,"type":568}," emissions for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold in the EU from January 1, 2035, effectively meaning a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by that date. A relaxation of the EU’s 2035 zero CO",{"text":577,"type":568},{"text":614,"type":568}," emission target could include allowing the use of CO",{"text":577,"type":568},{"text":617,"type":568},"-neutral fuels, such as biofuels, plug-in hybrids or range extenders.",{"type":563,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":49},[621,623,624],{"text":622,"type":568},"This comes at a time when European automakers are struggling with the EV transition due to a combination of high production costs resulting from high energy prices, a competitiveness gap with China and a 15% US tariff on EU car imports. In response to similar pressure, the EU adopted some regulatory flexibility in meeting the 2025 emission target earlier this year by allowing OEMs selling in the EU to comply with their 2025 target by averaging their emission performance over 2025-2027. This makes it easier for OEMs to achieve their overall fleet emissions target of 93.6 grams of CO",{"text":577,"type":568},{"text":625,"type":568}," per km travelled, down from 106.6 grams in 2023, and to avoid facing large fines.  However, each automaker has specific targets relative to the average mass of vehicles it registers, and the recent relaxation will have significant implications if OEMs fail to meet their targets, as it will encompass three years of new vehicle registrations. To help OEMs reach their targets, groups can pool their emissions together.",{"type":563,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"textAlign":49},[629,631,637],{"text":630,"type":568},"According to ",{"text":632,"type":568,"marks":633},"Rho Motion’s EU vehicle emissions performance tracker",[634],{"type":587,"attrs":635},{"href":636,"uuid":49,"anchor":49,"target":49,"linktype":590},"https://rhomotion.com/membership-briefings/eu-vehicle-emissions-tracker-performance-in-2025/",{"text":638,"type":568},", over the period of 2025-2027, multiple OEM groups, including BMW and Kia, which are not in a pooling arrangement, are on track to meet their targets. In Q1 2025, Rho Motion’s initial expectations were for a total of €12 billion in fines; Rho Motion currently expects this to be €13 billion. This is, among other things, a result of weaker Tesla sales, which have increased the total fine of its pool, which includes other major OEMs such as Stellantis and Toyota, to € 5.6 billion. Additionally, OEMs’ ability to meet these targets through PHEV sales was weakened for 2025 emissions due to the change in Utility Factor, as ‘real-world’ emissions for PHEVs were severely understated, explaining the lobbying of some European OEM groups against this change in the Utility Factor.",{"type":640,"attrs":641},"blok",{"id":642,"body":643},"071a147c-3a6d-4c4d-8049-6f852259c30f",[644],{"id":645,"_uid":646,"type":647,"_editable":648,"component":649,"fixed_height":598,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":598,"fixed_height_tablet":598},"25319503","i-cb5acb24-3f65-43bd-bf8d-288fffc11bc8","visualisation","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-cb5acb24-3f65-43bd-bf8d-288fffc11bc8\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","ContentFlourish",{"type":640,"attrs":651},{"id":652,"body":653},"c1cd7fee-1ed4-43df-81df-56d51ebe803d",[654],{"id":655,"_uid":656,"type":647,"_editable":657,"component":649,"fixed_height":598,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":598,"fixed_height_tablet":598},"25315015","i-cde08976-e2c8-444e-a74b-ae63f2a9ed78","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-cde08976-e2c8-444e-a74b-ae63f2a9ed78\", \"id\": \"\"}-->",{"type":563,"attrs":659,"content":660},{"textAlign":49},[661,663,664],{"text":662,"type":568},"Following the third Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the European Automotive Industry, the EU Commission announced it will bring forward a review of its 2035 zero CO",{"text":577,"type":568},{"text":665,"type":568}," emission target to the end of 2025, rather than 2026, which comes as a concession to the automotive industry. Additionally, it announced a so-called Small Affordable Cars Initiative, likely to include a new preferential financial and fiscal treatment to support entry-level and lightweight urban EVs, EU-level measures on corporate fleets to generate stronger EU-wide EV demand and a reconfirmation of the EU Battery Booster Package, a €1.8 billion initiative to support the struggling European battery industry.",{"type":570,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"level":572,"textAlign":49},[669],{"text":670,"type":568},"2. Monthly round-up of the remaining key geopolitical and policy updates",{"type":640,"attrs":672},{"id":673,"body":674},"e73aaa14-ec78-4da8-8c94-33557e2eeec1",[675],{"id":676,"_uid":677,"type":647,"_editable":678,"component":649,"fixed_height":598,"use_fixed_height":50,"fixed_height_mobile":598,"fixed_height_tablet":598},"25432562","i-57a4403c-e082-4100-baa2-88eee9fbe9a7","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"ContentFlourish\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"i-57a4403c-e082-4100-baa2-88eee9fbe9a7\", \"id\": \"\"}-->",{"type":570,"attrs":680,"content":681},{"level":572,"textAlign":49},[682],{"text":683,"type":568},"3. Key Macro-economic Indicators",{"type":563,"attrs":685,"content":686},{"textAlign":49},[687],{"text":688,"type":568},"The US stock market remains on a bull run, though concerns are mounting as investors question whether the current pace of growth is sustainable. Technology investment has been a key driver of the US economy this year, acting as a deflationary force that helps to counterbalance the inflationary pressures brought on by tariffs. As AI infrastructure expands, unit costs continue to fall, with economies of scale reinforcing the sector’s momentum.",{"type":563,"attrs":690,"content":691},{"textAlign":49},[692],{"text":693,"type":568},"Away from the US, a growing number of financial markets are exploring de-dollarisation as US policy turns increasingly isolationist. The rise of cryptocurrencies, alongside China’s push for the renminbi to assume a greater role in global trade, could challenge the dollar’s position as the reserve currency. Notably, the USD: INR index has climbed in recent months following the introduction of additional tariffs on India.",{"type":563,"attrs":695,"content":696},{"textAlign":49},[697],{"text":698,"type":568},"Hong Kong is also consolidating its position as a vital gateway for offshore renminbi business, an effect most visible in the Hang Seng Index, which has been among the strongest performers globally over the past year.",{"type":563,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":49},[702],{"text":703,"type":568},"In Europe, the macroeconomic outlook remains broadly subdued. Inflation is largely contained, except in the UK, where the CPI continues to exceed that of its G7 peers. The growth outlook across the continent is mixed, with US trade tariffs prompting caution among European businesses, many of which have taken a wait-and-see stance, deferring key investments.","This is your monthly geo-economic and policy briefing, part of your Benchmark Source subscription. Every month, this briefing examines the key geo-economic and policy trends shaping the mine-to-grid supply chains, from critical minerals to electric vehicles (EVs). 1. While electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining ground in Europe, industrial and political pushback against the EU’s 2035 […]","\u003C!--#storyblok#{\"name\": \"briefing\", \"space\": \"\", \"uid\": \"26feeb65-adb4-4c6d-9e0a-f9736f867ef2\", \"id\": \"\"}-->","briefing",[708,711,714,717],{"slug":709,"name":710},"batteries","Batteries",{"slug":712,"name":713},"critical-minerals","Critical Minerals",{"slug":715,"name":716},"geopolitics","Geopolitics",{"slug":718,"name":719},"new-energy","New Energy","private","monthly","Oct 03, 2025","3rd October 2025",{"slug":725,"title":726,"cardImage":727,"description":728,"frequency":729},"geo-economic-and-policy-briefings","Geo Economic And Policy Briefings","https://a.storyblok.com/f/287943243085208/x/c23333c1e3/geo-economic-policy-hero.avif","This Briefing unpacks the month's key policies impacting global and regional energy transition supply chains.","Monthly",[],[],1789748917650]