2023 will be the year the auto industry secures manganese

Only a few weeks into 2023 and interest is already building in the battery manganese market.

Offtake discussions were bubbling behind closed doors during 2022 before Element 25 and Euro Manganese publicly announced tie-ins with Stellantis and Verkor, respectively, in early January 2023.

Until these recent announcements there were no public supply arrangements for battery-grade manganese products, which left manganese an ‘odd one out’ amongst battery raw material peers.

The announcements came as no surprise given the steady progress of a small handful of prospective new entrants and extensive downstream investment in NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) cathodes outside of China.

Benchmark expects more manganese partnerships and deals to be a key theme of 2023 as OEMs and cell producers zero-in on securing future manganese supply.

A pivotal year ahead for high-manganese cathode chemistries

In 2023 close attention will also be paid to the progress of new high-manganese cathode chemistries.

Alternative cathode chemistries, such as lithium manganese nickel oxide (LMNO), lithium iron manganese phosphate (LMFP), or nickel manganese-based cathodes (NMX) with similar structures to NCM are increasing in popularity as end-users look to cut cobalt out of their supply chains.

NMx and LMFP are now in commercial production and successful testing and deployment of these chemistries in vehicles could pave the way for the cell and cathode manufacturers eying up a similar path.

Question marks remain about which manganese product will be in demand for consumption in the new cathode variations, however. Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD) is used in the production of LMO cathodes. EMD and a range of other manganese products are being utilised in LMFP development and production in China.

The development of LMNO remains underway, however. With a manganese intensity of around ten times that of high nickel NCM 811 cathodes and three times that of LMFP it will be a key chemistry to watch for the future of manganese in batteries.

A growing project pipeline outside China

Additional production of high-purity manganese is due to be brought online this year by existing producers Vibranz Technologies (Mexico) and Manganese Metal Company (South Africa).

However, with small tonnages in comparison to future forecast demand, new projects will be much needed.

Benchmark is tracking a growing list of over 30 high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM) projects around the world, of which 24 are located outside of China. However, the majority are at very early scoping stages and include mine and plant construction.

As is true of the entire lithium ion battery supply chain, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is influencing decision-making in the battery manganese sector. Meeting US manganese sulphate demand without material from China will be impossible unless new sources of supply come to fruition and many prospective new entrants are keen to supply the growing US market.

Only four countries with US free trade agreements – Australia, Canada, Mexico and Morocco – have the potential to supply manganese ore, metal or sulphate. Therefore forthcoming IRA clarifications regarding extraction/processing location and definition of free trade agreement will be key for the build out of the battery manganese supply chain.

Benchmark consultants provide insight and clarity into manganese prices, the outlook for the industry and strategic advice to support market entry and strategy. Talk to our experts for more information.