It is likely that Japanese buyers of medium and heavy rare earths, especially yttrium, will continue to pay high premiums for material through to 2028 as the country's stockpiles run low.

Battery requirements vary significantly across robotics applications, depending on factors such as operating patterns, payload, space constraints, runtime, weight, and total cost of ownership. While cost efficiency is a priority for warehouse and logistics robots, higher energy density and lightweight designs are increasingly important for humanoid and aerospace robots. 

New battery recycling rules entering force in the coming months in South Korea are to change how end-of-life batteries are graded, traded and processed in one of the largest recycling hubs outside China. The first new piece of legislation to enter force, this by the end of 2026, will expand the definition of raw material for black mass but exclude lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material, which Benchmark forecasts will make up 46% of South Korea’s black mass by 2040. Under the new rules, a greater volume of nickel- and cobalt-containing black mass could qualify to be considered a raw material in South Korea under amendments to the country’s Waste Controls Act. Currently, black mass must contain ≥10% nickel by weight, or be counted as waste, which comes with storage and handling requirements that increase recyclers’ costs.

China needle coke prices are expected to rise sharply in Q4 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes crude oil and slurry oil costs higher. Benchmark forecasts prices to peak in Q1 2027 at their highest level since early 2023, before easing as new supply in China comes online. Crude oil prices climbed through October as conflict in the Middle East intensified, with Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi energy infrastructure, including key Aramco facilities, raising the risk to regional oil supply. Brent oil prices stayed above $100/bbl throughout the month, peaking at around $117/bbl, before dipping to $90/bbl by 6 November.