Between now and 2050, the lithium industry will need the equivalent of 134 new lithium mines to keep pace with rising demand for the critical mineral. Of these, 44 are needed to meet demand growth between 2040 and 2050 alone. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts that global lithium demand will reach ~7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, with 76% of this driven by electric vehicles. This is an increase of 4.8 million tonnes from a demand of 2.11 million tonnes LCE in 2026. At an average mine size of 36,000 tonnes LCE, this growth is equivalent to the output of 134 new mines – effectively a new mine every two months for the next 24 years.

Although synthetic graphite is the preferred feedstock for the large majority of cells in all regions, the strength of this preference varies notably region-by-region. Outside of China, natural graphite still holds a notable 22% of traditional anode demand compared to 8% within China. Moving to 2030, outside of China natural graphite’s share is set to fall only slightly to 20% whilst in China it is set to remain around the 8% mark.

South America’s supply of mined lithium is expected to grow 77% from 2026 levels by 2040, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Service. The region is forecast to supply 444kt LCE in 2026 and 784kt in 2040. This growth is driven in large part by Argentina, which is expected to largely catch up with neighbouring Chile in lithium supply. Argentina’s supply is expected to increase by more than 200% over the period from 111kt to 337kt, while Chile is forecast to grow 25%, from 296kt to 371kt. "Argentina has become a beacon for lithium investment, driven by a combination of high-quality resources and a favourable investment framework, which has been critical in increasing companies' appetite for committing capital,” said Benchmark lithium analyst Federico Gay. “The country is bringing projects online quickly and still has a very attractive development pipeline."

US federal agencies have emerged as major backers of the country’s graphite anode supply chain. Across August and September, the US Army and Export-Import Bank (EXIM) have provided funding or land for projects that have struggled to secure private investment. In August, EXIM approved a USD $25 million direct loan for Phase I of Westwater Resources' Kellyton, Alabama plant under its Make More in America Initiative. Phase I is designed to produce ~12.5ktpa of coated spherical purified graphite (CSPG). “Loans, land and grants are lowering the cost of building plants, and tariffs are closing most of the running-cost gap,” said Tony Alderson, Research Manager at Benchmark. “With buyers increasingly willing to pay for traceable, non-Chinese material, US projects are closer to competing than headline costs suggest.”