The strength of nickel prices seen in Q2 reversed this quarter amidst softening demand and the resumption of nickel exports from the DRC. Benchmark's data shows that nickel sulphate prices (EXW China) fell 13% since the end of Q2 to RMB 28,500/tonne ($4,247) as of 23 September. During the same period, aggregate CIF Asia MHP prices declined 17.3% whilst metal prices (INCO) fell 9.5%. “Easing cost pressures at Indonesian refiners and smelters, alongside fresh production quotas and weakening nickel-based cathode demand, have offered little support to nickel prices during Q3,” said Frederick Bloomfield, senior analyst at Benchmark.

Benchmark’s NCM Black Mass EXW China payables have fallen 4.9% since the end of Q2, from 77.0% to 73.3%. Benchmark’s LCO Black Mass EXW China payables fell even more sharply, down 7.5% and 13.2% quarter-on-quarter for lithium carbonate and cobalt sulphate respectively, reaching 70.8% for both. Benchmark NCM Black Mass CIF Asia payables fell 10.4% q-o-q, from 120% to 107.5%, while Benchmark NCM Black Mass EXW North America and EXW Europe payables have dropped 13.6% and 8.3% respectively.

Light and heavy rare earth prices diverged sharply for much of Q3 2026. The BMI Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide (PrNd) DDP China price eased by just 1% over the period, while the BMI PrNd CIF North America and Europe prices fell more sharply, slipping below the $110/kg floor built into MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths' agreements with the US Department of Defense. In contrast, ex-China dysprosium, terbium and yttrium prices surged, with BMI Dysprosium Oxide CIF Europe increasing 150% by quarter-end.

The divergence between natural and synthetic anode active material (AAM) prices observed earlier in the year stopped widening in Q3, with prices across both chemistries and all capacities remaining flat from mid-June- to mid-September. However, this midstream stability contrasted with continued movement in the feedstock markets during the same period, notably for coke materials, with pre-calcined pet coke prices rising 6.5% across July and August. “Q3 was characterised by a clear standoff between rising synthetic graphite feedstock costs and an oversupplied AAM market,” said Tony Alderson, anode and graphite research manager at Benchmark. “Producers absorbed the additional cost pressure rather than risk raising prices and losing market share. Meanwhile, coarser natural graphite flake grades continued to soften globally, whilst finer mesh material remained stable after reaching already depressed price lows from Q4 2025.”