Light and heavy rare earth prices diverged sharply for much of Q3 2026. The BMI Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide (PrNd) DDP China price eased by just 1% over the period, while the BMI PrNd CIF North America and Europe prices fell more sharply, slipping below the $110/kg floor built into MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths' agreements with the US Department of Defense. In contrast, ex-China dysprosium, terbium and yttrium prices surged, with BMI Dysprosium Oxide CIF Europe increasing 150% by quarter-end.

The divergence between natural and synthetic anode active material (AAM) prices observed earlier in the year stopped widening in Q3, with prices across both chemistries and all capacities remaining flat from mid-June- to mid-September. However, this midstream stability contrasted with continued movement in the feedstock markets during the same period, notably for coke materials, with pre-calcined pet coke prices rising 6.5% across July and August. “Q3 was characterised by a clear standoff between rising synthetic graphite feedstock costs and an oversupplied AAM market,” said Tony Alderson, anode and graphite research manager at Benchmark. “Producers absorbed the additional cost pressure rather than risk raising prices and losing market share. Meanwhile, coarser natural graphite flake grades continued to soften globally, whilst finer mesh material remained stable after reaching already depressed price lows from Q4 2025.”

Benchmark analysis shows that refined nickel production in Indonesia this year will be greater than that available through the country's current mining quotas. This has led to the country’s imports of Philippine nickel ore increasing 82% between January and July this year compared to the same time last year.

Batteries produced by CATL can be found in 3.4 million Chinese EVs sold so far in 2026, according to data from Benchmark’s EV & Battery Service. Supplier concentration creates both cost and supply-chain risks.