BMI's latest lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and spodumene data shows where price risk is concentrated across the next 12 months, and what that means for procurement, offtake and hedging decisions.

Copper smelter treatment charges (TCs), the charge levied by smelters to process copper concentrates, have hit record lows in recent weeks as a result of years of smelter overcapacity, particularly in China. As of 7th August, copper TCs were at -$173/tonne.  Concentrate supply has not grown quickly enough in recent years to make use of all the additional capacity among smelters, but strong byproduct prices, high premiums, and high copper prices have supported smelters despite dwindling TC proceeds. 

On 30 July the Trump administration issued a memorandum to secure the supply of recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials (CMMs) by controlling exports under Section 101 of the Defense Production Act. Included within these controls are black mass and used batteries. Following this the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued a temporary rule to restrict exports of black mass and tungsten scrap without a license on 4 August, which it is now seeking feedback on. According to the summary “U.S. persons engaged in the sale of black mass and tungsten waste and scrap must allocate 100 percent of monthly sales to U.S. persons, unless an adjustment or exception is obtained in advance from BIS.” After publication on 6 August, there are 21 days permitted for feedback before official implementation on 27 August with an expiration date of 17 September 2027. “A ban on the export of black mass should redirect feedstock towards US recyclers,” said Frederick Bloomfield, a senior black mass pricing analyst at Benchmark. “The key question is whether the policy will accelerate the buildout of US black mass refining capacity and mitigate critical mineral leakage, or whether these rules can be circumvented.”

Some Chinese Tier 1 battery producers have started including purified phosphoric acid (PPA) in their cathode active material (CAM) price negotiation formulae, as supply deficits of the input have led to soaring prices, Benchmark understands. These elevated prices are a result of global tightness in sulphur supply, caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and drone attacks on Russian gas processing plants. The sulphur disruption has particularly impacted wet-process PPA producers which have cut output and delayed the commissioning of new projects. In recent months, wet-process PPA prices have climbed above that of thermal-process PPA which historically commands a higher price as it requires significantly more electricity and higher-grade ore feedstock.