Tony Alderson, Research Manager, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

Australia has given greater priority to national security and economic resilience in an update to its critical minerals strategy, a shift from a 2023 edition that placed heavier emphasis on climate goals. It also highlights the importance of international partnerships and targets government efforts where they can have the greatest comparative advantage by expanding domestic processing and refining. The 2026 update to the Critical Minerals Strategy 2023–2030 keeps the 2030 vision and six focus areas, but critical minerals, it says, "are no longer a resources issue". It announces no new money, restating existing commitments including the AUD 17.5 billion (USD 12.3 billion) Production Tax Incentive and a AUD 5 billion (USD 3.5 billion) Critical Minerals Facility. The update was discussed by Australian mining minister Madeline King at the International Mining and Resources Conference (IMARC) in Sydney on 27–29 October, where Benchmark lithium product director Cam Perks was in attendance.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October, beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with about 52% of the vote. His fourth term, starting 5 January 2027, keeps in place a critical minerals policy that raises a question for the rare earths market: who will process Brazil’s ore? Brazil holds the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves after China, and Benchmark forecasts mine output to almost triple by 2032 from 5,000 tonnes today. Yet there is no domestic refining until 2030 and only small volumes of light rare earths after that.

Big Tech’s nuclear ambitions are starting to impact uranium demand. Volumes are small but growing in a market where mined supply already falls short. On 6 October, Google signed a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Constellation, funding more than USD $4.3 billion of upgrades across 11 units in Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to add 890MW. It also signed a 15-year deal for 2,700MW from existing plants. On 19 October, Amazon, AEP and X-energy agreed to study a 960MW, 12-reactor plant using the advanced Xe-100 design at a former Indiana coal site, ahead of any final investment decision.