Benchmark satellite analysis confirms gigafactory construction timelines

Benchmark has begun monitoring and verifying battery gigafactory construction progress using satellite imagery, as a total of over 160 lithium ion battery cell plants are set to be built this decade globally.

Benchmark has now verified 90% of all Tier 1 capacity globally which represents 38% of the capacity outlook to 2030.

As many new companies enter the market, and incumbent producers aggressively scale their production capacity, Benchmark Verified will provide further evidence-backed insight into the market, giving greater confidence for Benchmark’s subscribers.

The world’s Tier 1 battery manufacturers continue to develop the experience curve and are able to install capacity on increasingly shorter timelines.

The pipeline for lithium ion battery production capacity continues to grow rapidly, with the capacity forecast to 2030 now 9246.4 GWh up by 26.0% on the year prior, with 408 plants now tracked as part of the assessment.

In addition, Benchmark will continue to monitor each site at regular intervals, in order to confirm maintained activity at each factory, particularly as overcapacity in some markets may lead to companies halting construction or production and in some cases abandoning projects.

The remaining capacity pipeline is expected to be verified in the fourth quarter of this year.

Tracking battery progress in Hungary

For example, through new analysis of Samsung SDI’s (Samsung) nameplate 40 GWh cell plant in Göd, Hungary, Benchmark has verified construction began in June, 2016and production had begun in 2017, and has as such, designated the site in the category ‘Verified Active Capacity’

Benchmark’s analysis indicates almost continuous construction at the site since its inception, consistent with Benchmark’s capacity ramp up projections within the Benchmark Gigafactory Assessment.

In addition, analysis of vehicular activity supports large increases in capacity, as well as significant cell supply out of the site. Samsung currently supplies a number of European automakers from Hungary, including German manufacturer, BMW Group (BMW).

In August 2023, Samsung revealed plans to expand capacity at its cell factory in Hungary to 40 GWh, having previously been targeting 30 GWh. New production lines will manufacture cylindrical high nickel cells, and continued satellite analysis of the site will provide insight into both the installation of such lines, and the utilisation.

Benchmark Verified

Benchmark’s new remote sensing service will be included within its Gigafactory Assessment.

This service will provide accurate and transparent insight into downstream projects, backed by satellite imagery.

Benchmark has combined its detailed knowledge of these existing and planned facilities globally with advanced capabilities in the analysis of satellite imagery using geographic information systems (GIS).

Initially this service will verify the status of active battery gigafactories and monitor the progress of individual projects’ construction and production timelines. Through the development of proprietary site evaluation methodologies from satellite imagery, Benchmark will assign each individual cell production site into one of two initial categories:

· Verified Active Capacity: Benchmark is satisfied there is visible evidence of cell production activity at the site

· Verified Capacity Under Construction: Benchmark is satisfied there is visible evidence of construction at the site

The indicators used to determine Benchmark Verified status include but are not limited to:

· Major construction milestones including site clearance, earth works, ground works, support/wall/roof erection, installation of major services

· Vehicle activity levels at the site, including the movement of goods and people

· Emissions from active facilities that can be picked up by remote sensing arrays

As Benchmark continues to refine this service, remote sensing analysis will be extended to include midstream assets, bringing further transparency to anode, cathode, and precursor markets. If you interested in accessing Benchmark’s Gigafactory Assessmentsubscription service please register your interest here: