How many mines are needed for the energy transition?

To meet the increasing demand for batteries for the energy transition 293 new mines would need to be built by 2030, according to analysis by Benchmark.

Lithium likely poses the most pressing bottleneck for the industry, with 52 lithium mines needed by the end of the decade. Though it is second to copper in terms of the number of new mines required, supply must more than double relative to current levels, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast.

To meet demand for copper, used in a range of applications, from batteries to wires, 61 new mines are needed by 2030.

For High Purity Manganese Sulphate Monohydrate, supply needs to more than triple in five years and 21 plants must come online, according to Benchmark’s Manganese Sulphate Market Outlook.

Benchmark’s Capital Tracker shows $285 billion of investment is required to bring sufficient critical raw materials online by 2030.

Though many of these markets are currently in a state of oversupply, the forecast deficits are substantially higher than current surpluses. This presents an issue, where the necessary investment in raw materials to ensure adequate future supply is discouraged by the current low price environment.

Anode, cathode, and cell capacity can be brought online in less than five years but raw material supply can take as long as 25 years to come online.

Additionally, Western nations are taking steps to derisk their supply chains from China. Supply in many of these raw materials markets is driven primarily by Chinese production, meaning more investment is needed from Western countries to secure supply to meet domestic demand.