Kakula suspension adds pressure to tight copper concentrate market

Ivanhoe Mines’ Kakula mine has been suspended following seismic activity in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a statement released by the company on Monday said.

The Kamoa-Kakula complex had been projected to be the world’s third largest copper operation in 2025, according to Benchmark’s Q1 Copper forecast. The announced suspension only impacts the Kakula mine and not the Kamoa part of the project. However, Kakula is the larger of the two operations.

The complex has a total milling capacity of 15 Mtpa, two-thirds of which is fed by ore from the Kakula mine. The Kamoa mine feeds the remaining third. In light of the suspension, Ivanhoe has withdrawn Kamoa-Kakula’s production and cost guidance for 2025—as well as the ramp-up schedule for an integrated on-site smelter—pending review.

Although it remains unclear at this stage when full mine production will recommence, the processing of stockpiled copper concentrates will continue at the site. The complex has significant quantities of stockpiled ore, standing at around 4 Mt, sufficient to last until mid-Q4 – potentially meaning that some of the broader impacts can be abated.

Ivanhoe previously outlined production guidance for the complex of between 520–580 kt. Following Kakula’s suspension, Benchmark has adjusted 2025 projected output down to 480-500 kt (base case), potentially dropping to 400–420 kt should mining at Kakula be suspended for the remainder of the year.

The suspension comes at a time when the copper raw material market is already tight, with copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) falling to record lows over recent months.

The news follows Freeport-McMoRan’s recent announcement of an earlier-than-expected restart of its Manyar smelter in Indonesia – meaning the supply of copper concentrates from two of the world’s three largest mines, Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, may now not be more constrained than previously anticipated.

The projected tightening of mined material comes amidst the initial stages of Antofagasta’s mid-year discussions over treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) with Asian smelters, potentially tipping the balance further in miners’ favour during these negotiations.Register to Benchmark’s Copper Newsletter here