Visualising Critical Mineral Refining by 2030

China will remain the dominant refiner of critical minerals by 2030, even amid current global efforts to counter its dominance through supply diversification and onshoring of processing capabilities, especially from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

China remains the dominant refined mineral supplier, both in terms of country of origin and overseas Chinese corporate-owned supply

Critical mineral supply chains are highly concentrated within China, especially at the refining and processing stage. Apart from nickel and copper, China will account for the majority of the refined critical mineral supply by 2030, by country of origin. China’s dominance in rare earths and synthetic graphite is particularly profound, as it is expected to take an 80%+ market share in both markets. Although China has a strong refined copper industry, refined copper production is forecast to be the most diversified globally, with 55% of global refined production coming from the rest of the world by 2030.

Even though Indonesia will remain the world’s dominant nickel refiner, accounting for 71% of global refined nickel production, around 80% of Indonesian refined nickel production is currently owned by Chinese companies, an illustration of China’s overseas strategic stronghold over critical mineral supply. Similarly, Chinese companies have invested heavily in upstream cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to pursue vertical supply chain integration.

What about the US, the EU and other G7+ countries?

Despite the Trump Administration’s strategic focus on onshoring critical mineral refining and processing, the US will only gain relatively small market shares in the natural and synthetic graphite and rare earth markets. Next to the US, Canada, and Finland, an EU member state, will account for 6% of the refined cobalt production market share each.

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