Benjamin Roche

Chilean lithium project Salar Futuros’ recent filing reveals an annual capacity ambition of 470,000 tonnes LCE, but it is likely to face regulatory challenges in meeting this target.  NovAndino, the SQM-Codelco joint venture formalised in December 2025, has submitted the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for its Salar Futuro project, a US$3 billion complete overhaul of their current operations in the Salar de Atacama designed to extend production through 2060.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the world’s leading supplier of mined cobalt, supplying three quarters of 2025 cobalt, and is the second largest supplier of mined copper, supplying 15% in 2025. Its transformation into a major supplier of both minerals follows significant investment from China over the last 15 years. The DRC is also home to one of the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposits, the Manono site in the country’s Tanganyika Province. It recently started operating. Manono North, owned by Zijin, is currently operating and has an eventual planned capacity of 120ktpa. A separate, AVZ-owned and CATL-backed Manono project is due to come online in 2032, with a planned capacity of 90ktpa.

Chilean copper mining group Antofagasta has, according to reports, settled a spot index-linked sale of copper concentrates. This is unusual, as Antofagasta ordinarily sell at set levels rather than floating, spot-linked sales. The company is the de facto negotiator of copper concentrate benchmark treatment charges/refining charges (TCs/RCs), so this update may have significant implications. A decline in importance of the benchmark system would increase focus on spot TCs at a time when the spot market is increasingly tight and the spread between long-term and spot TCs is growing.

Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Polestar is to exit the US market after the US Department of Commerce said it would not grant the majority-Chinese-owned, Sweden-based company authorisation to sell its vehicles in the country. Only 6% of its retail sales came from the US in Q1 2026, the company has said. The company is majority-owned by Geely, and had previously indicated that the Connected Vehicle Rule, proposed under the Biden administration to restrict import of vehicles using Chinese software and hardware, would largely prevent it from selling in the US. Since being passed, the rule has been upheld by the Trump administration, and the fresh decision to withhold authorisation reflects sustained US efforts across party lines to limit sales of Chinese EVs in the market.

China’s government has released its latest Five-Year Plan for New Energy System Development, setting out a range of new 2030 targets for its energy markets, including storage, generation and consumption. “The plan sets conservative and in-line new energy targets, serving more as a policy floor rather than a strict ceiling,” said Calvin Xu, a BESS analyst at Benchmark. “Supported by strong industry momentum, actual installations and deployments have consistently outperformed official goals during the previous five-year plan.” The plan is largely focused on “reinforcing market certainty” by providing “clear long-term development direction across renewables, energy storage, grid integration and power market reform,” Xu explained. Upcoming provincial targets and implementation rules are expected to provide more granular detail.

The copper market is often feared to be at risk of a structural shortage leading to near term market tightness. However, these concerns have often proved to be overblown as historically the supply gaps have been filled. The slow speed at which new mine supply can come online and the expectation for rapidly growing demand from global electrification and accelerating AI adoption reinforces the narrative, and perhaps the price signal, that copper supply is scarce. However, this view may be too focused on how Western mines and Western companies invest in the copper space. Indeed, over the last 15 years, Chinese companies have demonstrated their ability to deploy capital and ramp up mines around the world faster than the conventional 10–20 years considered standard by countries in the West.

China's lithium ion battery exports reached US$8 billion in May 2026, up 37% year-on-year (YOY), bringing the year to May total to $40 billion. That marks a 45% increase on the same period in 2025. According to China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance (CABIA) data, exports reached 29GWh in May, taking the Jan–May total to 145GWh. The year to May figures reflect a front-loaded quarter. March exports hit a record $9.7 billion, likely driven in part by exporters pulling forward shipments ahead of the 1 April cut to the battery export rebate. Levels normalised in April and May, but remain well ahead of the same months in 2025.

The US’ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued one of its most consequential grid actions in years on 18 June, directing all six US regional grid operators to justify or reform their tariffs for connecting large load (>20MW) energy users, such as AI data centres, crypto mining and advanced manufacturing facilities. The order aims to accelerate the ability for large loads to connect to the grid while ensuring reliable and affordable electricity for US consumers.

The European Commission is looking to impose additional countervailing duties on PHEVs made in China, with an anti-subsidy investigation reportedly underway. Chinese BEVs have been subject to countervailing duties since late 2024 at differing levels by firm, prompting several Chinese vehicle manufacturers to turn to PHEVs for sales growth in the region. In 2025, sales of PHEVs made in China increased more than four-fold compared to 2024 in the EU and sales have risen significantly again in 2026, with a threefold increase in the opening four months of the year compared to same period in 2025.

VW Group has started series production of its ‘Electric Urban Car Family’ series with the Volkswagen ID.Polo and Cupra Ravel in Martorell, Spain. Assembly of the Skoda Epiq started just days later at the automaker’s facility near Pamplona, Spain, the same site that will also produce the Volkswagen ID.Cross from later this year. While other European vehicle manufacturers have launched several small segment EVs, such as the Renault 5 and Citroen eC3, over the past two years, this is the first time the lineup of the region’s largest automotive group has offered vehicles in this segment since the all-electric Volkswagen UP! was discontinued in 2023.

Global battery energy stationary storage (BESS) offtake agreements from Chinese OEMs in H1 2026 were over four times their H1 2025 level in GWh terms, Benchmark analysis shows, reaching 659GWh so far in 2026. Large offtake agreements of ≥10GWh capacity represented the largest proportion, with 474GWh capacity signed in H1 2026 through 25 agreements, up from 102GWh in H1 2025 from five agreements.

Companies developing silicon-based anode technology have drawn more than USD $1.29 billion in ex-China investment since Benchmark began tracking new investments into the industry in 2024. Benchmark’s Energy Transition Capital Briefing database records 17 funding rounds from January 2024 to February 2026, ranging from seed funding rounds to large-scale equity funding rounds. It follows major earlier investments into silicon anode players, including $80m in UK-headquartered Nexeon in 2022.