Benjamin Roche

Benchmark’s Manganese Sulphate (32%) EXW China prices moved within a tight band through Q3 2026. This followed a Q1 surge driven by high sulphuric acid prices and the cancellation of export tax rebates on NCM precursors and cathode materials, and a small Q2 correction as off-season downstream operating rates slowed and idled capacity restarted. Manganese sulphate ended Q3 at RMB 7,116/tonne ($1,060/tonne), up 1.1% from the end of Q2. It hit a quarter low of RMB 7,043/tonne ($1,042/tonne) in mid-July and a high of RMB 7,178/tonne ($1,062/tonne) later in the month. Daisy Jennings-Gray, head of prices at Benchmark, said that “overall, seasonal restocking, tight supply and firm feedstock costs held prices steady in a quiet quarter, suggesting the next move is more likely to come from cost pass-through than from any shift in cathode chemistry demand.”

In recent years, Africa has rapidly grown from a small player in the global battery supply chain to a strategically significant one, as global players begin to realise the potential of the region’s resources. As Europe and North America in particular look to diversify their China-centric supply chains, African nations are emerging as key trade partners. Africa’s growing role in the global battery supply chain and how countries in the region can best capture value from this were key points of discussion at Benchmark’s Giga Africa event in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Increased DRC exports led to cobalt hydroxide prices (CIF Asia) falling 31% to across Q3 to $17.25/lb ($38,030/tonne), while cobalt sulphate prices (EXW China) dropped nearly 30% to RMB 58,000/tonne ($8,642), according to Benchmark’s Cobalt Price Assessment. EXW Europe cobalt metal prices eased about 11%, while CIF Asia MHP cobalt payables sank from 91.5% to 65.8% by mid September as a result of cheaper hydroxide offering an alternative. “Q3 2026 has seen a broad decline in prices across the cobalt supply chain as rising DRC-origin supply succeeded the weak downstream buying that defined Q2,” said George Ingall, a senior cobalt price analyst at Benchmark.

The strength of nickel prices seen in Q2 reversed this quarter amidst softening demand and the resumption of nickel exports from the DRC. Benchmark's data shows that nickel sulphate prices (EXW China) fell 13% since the end of Q2 to RMB 28,500/tonne ($4,247) as of 23 September. During the same period, aggregate CIF Asia MHP prices declined 17.3% whilst metal prices (INCO) fell 9.5%. “Easing cost pressures at Indonesian refiners and smelters, alongside fresh production quotas and weakening nickel-based cathode demand, have offered little support to nickel prices during Q3,” said Frederick Bloomfield, senior analyst at Benchmark.

Benchmark’s NCM Black Mass EXW China payables have fallen 4.9% since the end of Q2, from 77.0% to 73.3%. Benchmark’s LCO Black Mass EXW China payables fell even more sharply, down 7.5% and 13.2% quarter-on-quarter for lithium carbonate and cobalt sulphate respectively, reaching 70.8% for both. Benchmark NCM Black Mass CIF Asia payables fell 10.4% q-o-q, from 120% to 107.5%, while Benchmark NCM Black Mass EXW North America and EXW Europe payables have dropped 13.6% and 8.3% respectively.

Light and heavy rare earth prices diverged sharply for much of Q3 2026. The BMI Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide (PrNd) DDP China price eased by just 1% over the period, while the BMI PrNd CIF North America and Europe prices fell more sharply, slipping below the $110/kg floor built into MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths' agreements with the US Department of Defense. In contrast, ex-China dysprosium, terbium and yttrium prices surged, with BMI Dysprosium Oxide CIF Europe increasing 150% by quarter-end.

The divergence between natural and synthetic anode active material (AAM) prices observed earlier in the year stopped widening in Q3, with prices across both chemistries and all capacities remaining flat from mid-June- to mid-September. However, this midstream stability contrasted with continued movement in the feedstock markets during the same period, notably for coke materials, with pre-calcined pet coke prices rising 6.5% across July and August. “Q3 was characterised by a clear standoff between rising synthetic graphite feedstock costs and an oversupplied AAM market,” said Tony Alderson, anode and graphite research manager at Benchmark. “Producers absorbed the additional cost pressure rather than risk raising prices and losing market share. Meanwhile, coarser natural graphite flake grades continued to soften globally, whilst finer mesh material remained stable after reaching already depressed price lows from Q4 2025.”

Uranium contained in DRC cobalt, in which it naturally occurs as a trace element in the copperbelt region, travels unrecorded through processing and export, as the country has no formal testing infrastructure in place. Other regions, such as Australia, deliberately recover uranium as a byproduct of copper mining.  The uranium contained in the DRC’s cobalt supplies is estimated to be equivalent to only 1–2% of Africa's total uranium mined supply, a negligible portion of global supply, according to Benchmark's Uranium and Cobalt Services. This puts into context a recent report highlighting the volumes contained in cobalt exports from the country.

Slow progress at two lithium sulphate production facilities is likely to force the Zimbabwean government’s hand in how a lithium concentrate export ban planned for the end of this year is handled. The government made the resumption of suspended hard rock lithium exports conditional on firm commitments from producers on bringing lithium sulphate production in-country, with a nominal deadline of January 2027, which a number of mines appear unlikely to achieve.

Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the uranium market and price environment remained muted, as reactor shutdowns vaporised demand faster than mine supply could adjust. Now, however, the uranium market is entering a structural deficit, as assessed by Benchmark's Uranium Service. The market is already in a marginal deficit for 2026. As nuclear power plays a growing role in the roll-out of data centres and other industries, this deficit is forecast to grow, and will continue to expand unless new supply can be brought online.

Plans to halt approvals for new Chinese cell capacity for 2026 have been confirmed and expanded to include production of cells for EV applications as well as for battery energy stationary storage (BESS) as part of a review of total battery capacity, expected to be completed by year end. 

Operating lithium supply will need to expand by over three million tonnes LCE to meet expected 2040 base demand, according to analysis in Benchmark’s new Capex Briefing. It is a gap that is forecast to require USD ~$64 billion in capital spending to close, as demand for the mineral continues to expand at 7.3% CAGR under Benchmark’s base demand view. As noted in Benchmark’s recent Lithium Forecast Report, lithium demand is expected to grow on the back of sustained electric vehicles (EV) adoption as well as an increase in deployment of battery energy stationary storage (BESS). While a tightening of the market is expected in the medium term, the long-term trend is one of strong growth; though the market could remain looser in the case of a more challenging economic environment or diminished policy support, the broad direction of demand is expected to remain the same.