Benjamin Roche

NdPr oxide prices have fallen below a key psychological and structural benchmark, dropping to $95,000/tonne CIF Europe and North America, beneath the $110/kg price floor established under MP Materials' agreement with the US Department of Defense. The decline, down 7.3% over the assessment period, highlights a widening gap between where the spot market is trading and the mechanisms designed to underpin domestic production economics, a divergence that carries different implications depending on where one sits in the supply chain. For producers benefiting from the floor price, the mechanism provides a guaranteed minimum return regardless of spot conditions, insulating them from the current downturn. For downstream buyers, however, the falling ex-China spot price represents a genuine cost benefit, offering access to NdPr oxide at levels meaningfully below the policy-supported floor.

Cobalt hydroxide prices (CIF Asia) have fallen sharply over recent weeks, though the shift reflects a wide and largely untested spread between bids and offers rather than a real collapse in market value. With no confirmed transactions concluded during the period, Benchmark's hydroxide index fell by over 11% week-on-week to $17–22/lb, capturing a market in which sellers are offering material at around $22/lb, while buyers are bidding at $17–20/lb.

The UK government has today launched its consultation on the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which provides headline target values for ZEV sales for each manufacturer in the UK, culminating in a 100% ZEV target by 2035. The targets have faced pushback from OEMs and their representatives in the UK in recent years for the rapid trajectory they set, though OEMs have succeeded in meeting its demands. The UK’s 2026 YTD EV penetration rate (including PHEVs) exceeds 33%, ahead of Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Bryan Bille, Benchmark's lead policy and geopolitical analyst, attended Part II of the International Seabed Authority's (ISA) 31st session in Kingston, Jamaica, from 23–29 July. On 24 July, the ISA Council concluded two weeks of negotiations without adopting the International Mining Code, the framework required for commercial extraction from the seabed in international waters. Key issues, including environmental safeguards, liability, inspection, and benefit-sharing, remain unresolved. Experts expect negotiations to continue for at least another three to four years before an overall agreement can be reached.

The worst winter storm in Argentina’s Puna region for years has cut land access to one of the country’s largest brine lithium salars, Hombre Muerto, from 19–27 July, where the road opened only for 4x4 vehicles. While the disruption in raw lithium tonnage is likely to be negligible, the situation is likely to encourage changes to permit conditions and greater requirements for operators to contribute to road maintenance. Satellite imagery shows up to two metres of snow on the roads into Hombre Muerto. Several Rio Tinto and Zijin employees and contractors were brought out after being stranded, four of them isolated for more than three days. Galan's camp, wellfield roads and evaporation ponds at Hombre Muerto West under a metre of snow. Rio Tinto suspended operations at both Fenix and Sal de Vida preventively.

BMI's latest lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and spodumene data shows where price risk is concentrated across the next 12 months, and what that means for procurement, offtake and hedging decisions.

Copper smelter treatment charges (TCs), the charge levied by smelters to process copper concentrates, have hit record lows in recent weeks as a result of years of smelter overcapacity, particularly in China. As of 7th August, copper TCs were at -$173/tonne.  Concentrate supply has not grown quickly enough in recent years to make use of all the additional capacity among smelters, but strong byproduct prices, high premiums, and high copper prices have supported smelters despite dwindling TC proceeds. 

Some Chinese Tier 1 battery producers have started including purified phosphoric acid (PPA) in their cathode active material (CAM) price negotiation formulae, as supply deficits of the input have led to soaring prices, Benchmark understands. These elevated prices are a result of global tightness in sulphur supply, caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and drone attacks on Russian gas processing plants. The sulphur disruption has particularly impacted wet-process PPA producers which have cut output and delayed the commissioning of new projects. In recent months, wet-process PPA prices have climbed above that of thermal-process PPA which historically commands a higher price as it requires significantly more electricity and higher-grade ore feedstock.

The US has replaced its temporary 10% global tariff with a new Section 301 duty tied to a forced-labour investigation, covering 60 trading partners including Canada, Mexico, India and the UK. The measure took effect at 12:01am ET on 24 July 2026, as the prior Section 122 tariff – put in place after the Supreme Court ruled the administration could not impose duties by declaring a national emergency – expired. The new rate is 10% for 14 economies with existing forced-labour import bans or relevant trade commitments, and 12.5% for the remaining 46, including China. Brazil faces a separate 25% Section301 tariff from 22 July under a distinct case.

On 17 July, China’s finance ministry announced legislation ending eleven years of tax exemptions for the lithium ion battery industry. This is an effort to curtail overcapacity in the industry that is also likely to offer its growing sodium ion battery industry a comparative boost, as it will retain these exemptions. From 1 September 2026, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on lithium ion batteries, as well as all-vanadium redox flow and nickel-metal hydride batteries. From 1 September 2027, the rate will rise again to 4%.

Geely electric vehicles (EVs) will begin production at Ford’s facility in Valencia, Spain, in 2028. The two automotive brands have formed a Europe-focused joint venture that seeks to revitalise Valencia amid growing cost pressures and competition. The new partnership will manufacture two electric Geely SUVs as well as a new multi-powertrain Ford crossover. While Chinese automakers are increasingly looking towards overseas EV markets for growth against a backdrop of a subdued domestic EV market, the expansion of Geely’s Chinese EV brands into Europe has been much less pronounced than BYD and Chery.

Benchmark’s July visit to Sigma Lithium's Grota do Cirilo operation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, came just before the company reported its strongest operating quarter in over a year. Sigma Lithium had paused operation at the mine in October 2025 for upgrades, though the restart was complicated by three waste piles at the site being shut down following a, now-resolved, government inspection at the start of 2026. Federico Gay, Benchmark’s principal lithium analyst, visited the site mid-July to “establish whether the mining restart had genuinely taken hold”. The visit also offered a chance to see on the ground how the self-imposed restructuring of its mine, following a period of operational bottlenecks, resulted in a significant operational turnaround “On the evidence in front of us,” Gay said, “the mine is operating at full capacity, with active blasting, continuous load and haul operations on both pits, supported by a fully functioning DMS plant, with a clear path of growth ahead."