Benjamin Roche

Operating lithium supply will need to expand by over three million tonnes LCE to meet expected 2040 base demand, according to analysis in Benchmark’s new Capex Briefing. It is a gap that is forecast to require USD ~$64 billion in capital spending to close, as demand for the mineral continues to expand at 7.3% CAGR under Benchmark’s base demand view. As noted in Benchmark’s recent Lithium Forecast Report, lithium demand is expected to grow on the back of sustained electric vehicles (EV) adoption as well as an increase in deployment of battery energy stationary storage (BESS). While a tightening of the market is expected in the medium term, the long-term trend is one of strong growth; though the market could remain looser in the case of a more challenging economic environment or diminished policy support, the broad direction of demand is expected to remain the same.

A White House Executive Order (EO), published on 26 August, has declared a national emergency, citing national security risks relating to hardware and software in the US power system made overseas. This new measure, EO 14420 is the second attempt to put such a measure into place after the previous Trump administration’s EO 13920 in 2020. The new order is broader in scope, including software as well as hardware, and sets a 120-day deadline for the Department of Energy to set implementation guidelines. Benchmark senior BESS research analyst Pete Tillotson said the order could be “highly disruptive to the US grid should it be implemented to its fullest extent”.

In early August, US auto giant General Motors (GM) announced it was relinquishing its 49.9% stake in SynergyCells, a JV with Samsung SDI, and as such its stake in the under-construction cell plant in Indiana, US. It is the third battery cell production plant for which GM has ceded its stake back to the South Korean partner, and follows similar moves by Stellantis and Ford over the past two years that have given South Korean firms a tighter grip on US cell manufacturing.

Africa is a key mining destination for a range of critical minerals across the energy transition supply chain. However, the majority of these minerals are exported for processing outside of the region. Most notably, Africa is the largest source of mined cobalt, where the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the subject of a previous Regional Spotlight, is the world’s leading supplier. The continent also leads global supply of mined manganese ore; it was responsible for three quarters of this in 2025.

Producers in Qinghai's Qaidam Basin have sharply lifted how much lithium they recover from brine, yet the province's output is not increasing as a result. The disconnect points to feedstock and water, rather than technology, as the real bottlenecks on China's largest lithium-brine region. Benchmark visited the basin in August, allowing us to verify our China salt-lake forecast against the work of producers on the ground.

NdPr oxide prices have fallen below a key psychological and structural benchmark, dropping to $95,000/tonne CIF Europe and North America, beneath the $110/kg price floor established under MP Materials' agreement with the US Department of Defense. The decline, down 7.3% over the assessment period, highlights a widening gap between where the spot market is trading and the mechanisms designed to underpin domestic production economics, a divergence that carries different implications depending on where one sits in the supply chain. For producers benefiting from the floor price, the mechanism provides a guaranteed minimum return regardless of spot conditions, insulating them from the current downturn. For downstream buyers, however, the falling ex-China spot price represents a genuine cost benefit, offering access to NdPr oxide at levels meaningfully below the policy-supported floor.

Cobalt hydroxide prices (CIF Asia) have fallen sharply over recent weeks, though the shift reflects a wide and largely untested spread between bids and offers rather than a real collapse in market value. With no confirmed transactions concluded during the period, Benchmark's hydroxide index fell by over 11% week-on-week to $17–22/lb, capturing a market in which sellers are offering material at around $22/lb, while buyers are bidding at $17–20/lb.

The UK government has today launched its consultation on the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which provides headline target values for ZEV sales for each manufacturer in the UK, culminating in a 100% ZEV target by 2035. The targets have faced pushback from OEMs and their representatives in the UK in recent years for the rapid trajectory they set, though OEMs have succeeded in meeting its demands. The UK’s 2026 YTD EV penetration rate (including PHEVs) exceeds 33%, ahead of Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Bryan Bille, Benchmark's lead policy and geopolitical analyst, attended Part II of the International Seabed Authority's (ISA) 31st session in Kingston, Jamaica, from 23–29 July. On 24 July, the ISA Council concluded two weeks of negotiations without adopting the International Mining Code, the framework required for commercial extraction from the seabed in international waters. Key issues, including environmental safeguards, liability, inspection, and benefit-sharing, remain unresolved. Experts expect negotiations to continue for at least another three to four years before an overall agreement can be reached.

The worst winter storm in Argentina’s Puna region for years has cut land access to one of the country’s largest brine lithium salars, Hombre Muerto, from 19–27 July, where the road opened only for 4x4 vehicles. While the disruption in raw lithium tonnage is likely to be negligible, the situation is likely to encourage changes to permit conditions and greater requirements for operators to contribute to road maintenance. Satellite imagery shows up to two metres of snow on the roads into Hombre Muerto. Several Rio Tinto and Zijin employees and contractors were brought out after being stranded, four of them isolated for more than three days. Galan's camp, wellfield roads and evaporation ponds at Hombre Muerto West under a metre of snow. Rio Tinto suspended operations at both Fenix and Sal de Vida preventively.

BMI's latest lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and spodumene data shows where price risk is concentrated across the next 12 months, and what that means for procurement, offtake and hedging decisions.

Copper smelter treatment charges (TCs), the charge levied by smelters to process copper concentrates, have hit record lows in recent weeks as a result of years of smelter overcapacity, particularly in China. As of 7th August, copper TCs were at -$173/tonne.  Concentrate supply has not grown quickly enough in recent years to make use of all the additional capacity among smelters, but strong byproduct prices, high premiums, and high copper prices have supported smelters despite dwindling TC proceeds.