Christophe Moulin

Chinese nickel producers in Indonesia were reported on 22 October to have agreed to halve their output of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and to cut output of nickel pig iron (NPI), the main nickel feedstock for stainless steel, by a fifth until the end of 2026. The rumours have not been confirmed by Benchmark, and Benchmark’s analysis of cost structures indicates cuts – if they do happen – may be smaller than reported.

Benchmark analysis shows that refined nickel production in Indonesia this year will be greater than that available through the country's current mining quotas. This has led to the country’s imports of Philippine nickel ore increasing 82% between January and July this year compared to the same time last year.

Indonesia has placed ferronickel exports under its new single-gate system, aiming to better support closer price oversight, tax collection, and retention of export proceeds. Indonesia first introduced centralised export controls for strategic commodities on 1 June 2026. PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), a state-owned company under Danantara Indonesia, is the designated export intermediary for all exports of coal, palm oil and ferro alloys – including ferronickel. Benchmark analysis finds that a third of global primary nickel production will now fall under Indonesian state export control.