Federico Gay

Operating lithium supply will need to expand by over three million tonnes LCE to meet expected 2040 base demand, according to analysis in Benchmark’s new Capex Briefing. It is a gap that is forecast to require USD ~$64 billion in capital spending to close, as demand for the mineral continues to expand at 7.3% CAGR under Benchmark’s base demand view. As noted in Benchmark’s recent Lithium Forecast Report, lithium demand is expected to grow on the back of sustained electric vehicles (EV) adoption as well as an increase in deployment of battery energy stationary storage (BESS). While a tightening of the market is expected in the medium term, the long-term trend is one of strong growth; though the market could remain looser in the case of a more challenging economic environment or diminished policy support, the broad direction of demand is expected to remain the same.

The worst winter storm in Argentina’s Puna region for years has cut land access to one of the country’s largest brine lithium salars, Hombre Muerto, from 19–27 July, where the road opened only for 4x4 vehicles. While the disruption in raw lithium tonnage is likely to be negligible, the situation is likely to encourage changes to permit conditions and greater requirements for operators to contribute to road maintenance. Satellite imagery shows up to two metres of snow on the roads into Hombre Muerto. Several Rio Tinto and Zijin employees and contractors were brought out after being stranded, four of them isolated for more than three days. Galan's camp, wellfield roads and evaporation ponds at Hombre Muerto West under a metre of snow. Rio Tinto suspended operations at both Fenix and Sal de Vida preventively.

Benchmark’s July visit to Sigma Lithium's Grota do Cirilo operation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, came just before the company reported its strongest operating quarter in over a year. Sigma Lithium had paused operation at the mine in October 2025 for upgrades, though the restart was complicated by three waste piles at the site being shut down following a, now-resolved, government inspection at the start of 2026. Federico Gay, Benchmark’s principal lithium analyst, visited the site mid-July to “establish whether the mining restart had genuinely taken hold”. The visit also offered a chance to see on the ground how the self-imposed restructuring of its mine, following a period of operational bottlenecks, resulted in a significant operational turnaround “On the evidence in front of us,” Gay said, “the mine is operating at full capacity, with active blasting, continuous load and haul operations on both pits, supported by a fully functioning DMS plant, with a clear path of growth ahead."

US direct lithium extraction (DLE) firm EnergyX has closed ~US$1bn of financing for Project Black Giant, a 52,500tpa lithium carbonate development at Salar de Punta Negra, without a Contrato Especial de Operación de Litio (CEOL), the licence required to operate.  Italian energy multinational Eni's $225m for a 25% stake, stacked on a $690m debt letter of intent from the US Export-Import (EXIM) Bank, puts capital, technology, offtake and Washington's sponsorship in place. Yet Punta Negra is a basin the Chilean state has already legally recognised as damaged, raising questions about the pace with which production is likely to begin – particularly given no private contract has yet received full authorisation with a CEOL.

Chilean lithium project Salar Futuros’ recent filing reveals an annual capacity ambition of 470,000 tonnes LCE, but it is likely to face regulatory challenges in meeting this target.  NovAndino, the SQM-Codelco joint venture formalised in December 2025, has submitted the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for its Salar Futuro project, a US$3 billion complete overhaul of their current operations in the Salar de Atacama designed to extend production through 2060.

Over the past two years, Argentina has been the destination for many ambitious investment commitments thanks to the country’s Regimen for Incentivising Large Investments (RIGI). Benchmark analysis shows that Argentina’s lithium output rose from 31kt in 2018 to 86kt LCE in 2025. By 2030, Benchmark forecasts production to grow a further 153% to 218kt, positioning Argentina amongst the fastest growing lithium producers globally. The growth in Argentina’s lithium industry highlights that coordinated policy efforts and a focus on cost efficiency can attract capital and support the development of viable projects.

Québec is cementing a place as one of North America’s key lithium hubs. With competitive power prices from low-carbon hydroelectricity, robust mining infrastructure, Atlantic trade route access and strong government support, the province is developing a fast-growing pipeline of mining and chemical processing projects. North America’s largest operation, North American Lithium (NAL) is based in the region, and was responsible for around three quarters of the continent’s output last year. The site is operated by Elevra Lithium, formed from a merger of Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium in September 2025. Elevra recently received a major vote of confidence from the Canada Growth Fund in the form of a C$145m (USD$106m) convertible note commitment to support the expansion of NAL. This is expected to begin before the end of the decade. 

Stagnation in Chile’s lithium output growth stands in contrast to rapidly-growing Argentina, as regulatory hold-ups limit development of new projects in the world’s third-largest-producing nation. Two years after the official launch of the National Lithium Strategy in Chile, Lithium remains a strategic national resource, meaning private operators cannot extract it using standard mining concessions. They instead require a Special Lithium Operation Contract (CEOL), a public-private contractual vehicle that grants exclusive rights to explore and exploit lithium resources on a list of pre-determined salars.

Rio Tinto has cleared a significant hurdle for its Rincon lithium project in Salta, Argentina by securing a US$1.175 billion financing package from a consortium of international lenders. The funding supports the US$2.5 billion development, which is aiming for a capacity of 60,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year.

Three waste piles from Sigma Lithium’s Grota do Cirilo lithium mine in Brazil have been shut down following a government inspection which found them to pose a risk to workers and the local community. Although Sigma contests the ruling, this adds an extra layer of difficulty for the miner which had only just ramped production ...

Chilean regulators approved the deal between SQM and state-owned miner Codelco to operate a lithium joint venture, named NovaAndino Litio, in the Atacama salt flats. This deal resolves a long-standing uncertainty surrounding what would happen when SQM’s existing mining license expired in 2030. NovaAndino Litio will take over operations of SQM’s Salar de Atacama site […]