Luc Braun

Lithium prices are rising significantly in China due to feedstock constraints and increased input costs, against a backdrop of robust demand. According to Benchmark’s 13 May price assessment, battery grade lithium carbonate in China rose 23.3% month-on-month, while spodumene concentrate prices are up 29.9% over the same period.

CMP and Halmek's Arctic Lithium joint venture has accelerated the development of the Polmostundrovskoye deposit in Murmansk Oblast, Northern Russia over recent months. Exploration and on-site activities began through the 2024 season and continued late into 2025, even continuing through parts of the snowy season. Although the production profile remains unconfirmed, sources with knowledge of the project, and Benchmark’s own satellite analysis have confirmed these activities. Public reporting suggests a preliminary run of around one million tonnes of ore for 2027 to be the first development stage. Benchmark forecasts mined production from Polmostundrovskoye at around 5kt LCE in 2026, with output onset towards the end of the calendar year.

Greenbushes, the world’s largest hard-rock lithium mine, is struggling with a structural decline in ore feed grade that is now materially impacting production and costs. IGO announced this week that spodumene concentrate output for Q1 was 351kt, prompting a full-year FY26 guidance cut to 1,375–1,425kt from 1,500–1,650kt. Benchmark’s Q1 2026 lithium supply forecast had Greenbushes at approximately 270,000 tonnes LCE for 2026 calendar year, underpinned by 1,850kt of spodumene concentrate across the year. The March quarter result, and the likelihood of a softer Q2, means the first half of 2026 is now tracking approximately 170kt SC below our forecast, equivalent to a shortfall of roughly 25,000 tonnes LCE.

On 2nd April, Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines and Mining Development outlined the prerequisite conditions for lifting the country's ban on lithium concentrate exports, signalling a potential thaw in the export suspension imposed in February 2026. The move reflects the government's intent to unlock value from the sector while enforcing strict domestic beneficiation requirements and operational standards. The conditions, detailed in a letter to the Chamber of Mines, represent a high bar for operators and reveal significant friction points between Zimbabwe's policy ambitions and the economics facing miners and converters.

On Wednesday 25th February, the Zimbabwean government suspended all exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, including material currently in transit. Exports of unbeneficiated lithium ore have been banned since 2022. This comes after a letter to Zimbabwe’s mining companies dated February 17th, which outlined the government’s intention to streamline its export permitting processes to “enhance efficiency”, address unsanctioned exports, crack down on export malpractices, and limit “leakage” of material. The global lithium market is currently tight, with supply and demand forecast to be largely balanced in 2026. There is currently no end date for the suspension. As such, it is unclear how much of Zimbabwe’s forecast supply for the year will be impacted, though it is likely to further tighten the market, potentially impacting prices.