OPINION: 2024 was the year of the plug-in hybrid

Last year BYD’s sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles grew six times faster than sales of its pure battery versions.

Sales of PHEVs rose by 73% for the full year, compared to a 12% increase for sales of pure battery electric vehicles.

PHEVs made up 58% of BYD’s sales of passenger vehicles for the full year – a remarkable share for a technology that many people dismissed a few years ago.

The rapid rise of plug-in hybrids indicates that many new buyers are still not ready to buy full electric vehicles, whether because of range concerns, cold temperatures, cost, or charging concerns.

Without further innovations to push consumers towards pure battery EVs, the rise of PHEVs in China could become self-sustaining as more carmakers produce hybrid models, potentially reducing forecast battery demand this decade.

Geely’s Zeekr brand said it will launch two new hybrid models this year, for example.

Adapting to consumer demand

The rise of plug-in hybrid vehicles has implications for raw materials, as well as for the rest of the supply chain. Since BYD has mastered both plug-in as well as pure battery electric technology, it can be extremely flexible to cater to customers’ tastes in the world’s largest automotive market.

Other global automakers such as Honda are going in the same direction – developing capacity to produce EVs or plug-in hybrids, depending on what consumers want.

Impact on battery materials

This might mean more volatility for lithium and other battery mineral demand going forward, depending on how consumer tastes evolve.

Data from Rho Motion shows that on average for 2024 the average battery pack size for a full electric vehicle was 55.4kWh, and 24.8 kWh for a plug-in hybrid vehicle.

The BYD Qin Plus PHEV has a 18.3 kWh battery compared to 48 kWh for the standard-range full EV, for example.

That means the full EV has more than double the amount of lithium as the plug-in hybrid vehicle.

Not so simple

But the picture is more complicated than it first appears.

The loss of battery material demand is partially made up for by the rise of range-extender vehicles, which have larger batteries, of around 39 kWh.

They made up around 11% of the PHEV market in China last year, according to Rho Motion.

In addition, PHEVs are likely taking customers away from full internal combustion engine vehicles, which is only adding to battery demand.

Innovation needed

Still, other innovations will urgently be needed to help increase the range and charging capabilities of pure EVs in China, helping to meet consumers’ needs.

BYD is launching the second version of its Blade battery this year, which will enable even longer range by increasing the energy density to as high as 190 watt hours per kilogram, for example.

The rise of PHEVs is a reminder that the EV revolution – since it is driven by consumers – won’t happen in an easy straight line.