Matthew Bird

Both lithium chemical and feedstock prices fell notably across Q3 2026, extending the lithium price correction that began in Q2. A volatile decline through July gave way to a notable August rally, before a sharp September reversal that erased the quarter's gains in a matter of days.

In recent years, Africa has rapidly grown from a small player in the global battery supply chain to a strategically significant one, as global players begin to realise the potential of the region’s resources. As Europe and North America in particular look to diversify their China-centric supply chains, African nations are emerging as key trade partners. Africa’s growing role in the global battery supply chain and how countries in the region can best capture value from this were key points of discussion at Benchmark’s Giga Africa event in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Brazil’s electric vehicle (EV) landscape is entering a new era of maturity thanks to growth in its charging network. What started as a handful of pilot projects has turned into a fast-growing, mature network built to meet the rapid growth in Brazil's EV demand. Recent data from Benchmark's EV Charging Service highlights a fundamental shift toward high-power, rapid-charging infrastructure capable of supporting both surging consumer adoption and heavy commercial logistics.

Benchmark analysis shows that refined nickel production in Indonesia this year will be greater than that available through the country's current mining quotas. This has led to the country’s imports of Philippine nickel ore increasing 82% between January and July this year compared to the same time last year.

Batteries produced by CATL can be found in 3.4 million Chinese EVs sold so far in 2026, according to data from Benchmark’s EV & Battery Service. Supplier concentration creates both cost and supply-chain risks.

The European Union has asked China to voluntarily reduce its exports of hybrid electric vehicles into the bloc in a bid to improve the competitiveness of its domestic vehicle market. Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports have reached new highs in 2026, with consistent monthly records set between March and July this year.

India’s growing demand for batteries is rapidly outpacing growth in cell production in the country. In 2025, India's government waived import duties on goods and machinery to make lithium ion batteries for EVs and phones. Initially, this was due to expire 31 March 2026, but was later extended to 31 March 2028. This built on India's previous moves to reduce reliance on imported cells. In 2020, it introduced the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. Despite this, India’s battery sector continues to be impacted by project delays.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, specialising in EV and battery supply chain research and insights, reports that 1.83 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold globally in August 2026, bringing year-to-date (YTD) 2026 EV sales to 13.4 million. In August 2026, EV sales increased by 2% year-on-year (y-o-y).

Copper prices have hit record high after record high in 2026, and are approaching USD 15,000/t as of 10 September. This is despite 2025’s multi-year high surplus and 2026 looking likely to be a broad surplus too.  Part of the reason prices are not reflecting the strong surplus is that huge flows into the US are making the market feel significantly tighter than it is.  In 2025, so much copper went to the US that Benchmark assessed the market as “feeling” 700kt tighter in 2025 than the actual surplus, and Benchmark expects the perceived tightness to be 880kt lower than the actual surplus in 2026. 

China is reported to have temporarily paused approvals for new battery energy stationary storage (BESS) cell production projects. The pause is part of increased measures by China to curb overcapacity and oversupply in the BESS cell market and is likely part of a review of existing and planned projects, but only applies to facilities that are yet to begin construction. This follows on from MOFCOM’s cessation of the lithium ion battery industry’s eleven year tax exemption and the elimination of export tax rebates for battery products. Those tax policies served more to encourage producers to limit output, rather than pause business activities. “If implemented, this new legislation would represent a significant escalation in China’s attempts to control the surge in BESS cell production witnessed across 2025 and 2026,” said Evan Hartley, research manager at Benchmark.

Amidst conflicting reports of lithium inventory levels, Benchmark’s latest Monthly Lithium Inventory China shows that chemicals inventory across carbonate and hydroxide fell a further 2.8% m-o-m in August. This continues the trend seen so far in 2026 where inventory levels have fallen 10.0% year-to-date and the typical H1 build and H2 drawdown pattern has been absent. “It leaves the market without the buffer between supply and demand that dampens price movements as participants near the final quarter of the year, where consumption is typically strongest,” said Adam Megginson, Benchmark’s principal lithium price analyst.

Rising chip prices are forcing portables manufacturers to look at increasing retail prices, reducing specifications or absorbing some of the cost and accept lower margins. This is acting to increase the gap between the prices of premium and budget products. Premium brands such as Apple or Samsung are better positioned to pass through cost increases due to stronger brand power and higher average selling prices, whilst more budget brands are more exposed to demand reduction if they increase prices. “While some stabilisation may occur, chip costs are expected to remain elevated in the near term, favouring companies with strong pricing power, efficient supply chains, and differentiated ecosystems,” said Benchmark battery analyst Anya Sidhu.