Matthew Bird

On-warrant copper stocks have risen by 63kt over the last three days, a more than 50% increase. This global rise – seen in Asia, the US and Europe – is a response to the large backwardation that has opened up over the last couple of months, hitting particularly wide-levels in the last week.  Total stocks have pushed up 28kt with deliveries flowing onto the exchange. Beyond this a significant amount of cancelled stock has been re-warranted.  The deliveries caused the LME cash-to-three month spread to fall significantly to around USD 175/t from over USD 550/t at points on Monday.  As of Wednesday 19 August, the LME three-month copper price is at USD 13,885/t, down nearly USD 300/t since Monday.  "The deliveries alleviate the fears of extreme nearby tightness for now, and LME inventories will be closely watched for signals on price movements," said Albert Mackenzie, a copper analyst at Benchmark.

Battery demand from January to July 2026 has now surpassed 1TWh, equivalent to the total demand of 2023, Benchmark’s data shows. “While EV demand continues to dominate, BESS continues to take a growing share of battery demand, increasing to 21% in the opening months of 2026,” said Iola Hughes, head of research at Benchmark.

The US government has signed nearly $2 billion in deals looking to strengthen the US’s supply chain security for critical minerals and technologies. The capital takes multiple forms from equity loans to direct investments. The largest is a $1.4 billion conditional loan to Sila Nanotechnologies, a US-based silicon anode company. The company currently operates a facility in Moses Lake, Washington with plans for a second phase of production towards the end of the decade. This latest round of funding builds on the plethora of investments the US has made in the battery and critical mineral space over the course of Donald Trump’s second presidency such as investing in MP Materials’ rare earths project and Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz copper project. “While the Trump Administration continues to invest in critical minerals, know-how, and strategic technologies to build a mine-to-magnet supply chain, these recent investment announcements also reflect the US ambition to build a next-generation mine-to-battery supply chain to reduce its dependence on China,” said Bryan Bille, Benchmark’s policy and geopolitics principal.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, specialising in EV and battery supply chain research and insights, reports that 1.85 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold globally in July 2026, bringing year-to-date (YTD) 2026 EV sales to 11.5 million. In July 2026, EV sales increased by 9% year-on-year (y-o-y). 

On 30 July the Trump administration issued a memorandum to secure the supply of recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials (CMMs) by controlling exports under Section 101 of the Defense Production Act. Included within these controls are black mass and used batteries. Following this the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued a temporary rule to restrict exports of black mass and tungsten scrap without a license on 4 August, which it is now seeking feedback on. According to the summary “U.S. persons engaged in the sale of black mass and tungsten waste and scrap must allocate 100 percent of monthly sales to U.S. persons, unless an adjustment or exception is obtained in advance from BIS.” After publication on 6 August, there are 21 days permitted for feedback before official implementation on 27 August with an expiration date of 17 September 2027. “A ban on the export of black mass should redirect feedstock towards US recyclers,” said Frederick Bloomfield, a senior black mass pricing analyst at Benchmark. “The key question is whether the policy will accelerate the buildout of US black mass refining capacity and mitigate critical mineral leakage, or whether these rules can be circumvented.”

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence announced today that it has started a formal public consultation on changes to its Lithium Price Assessment Methodology.

Since the final draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, now more than a year ago in July 2025, the outlook for EV Sales in the US had been condemned for 2026. , previous tax credits fading into consumers memories and some new models inbound, is the US EV market starting to show green shoots among the rubble?  The removal of the $7,500 federal tax credit for new EV sales came at the end of September 2025. With public knowledge of the cliff edge in the three months prior, a large ramp up and consequent drop in EV sales was witnessed.   In 2026, the effective price rise across the most popular EV models created an expectation of a near 30% drop in EV sales in our forecast. In the early months of 2026, that trend was very much followed. January sales saw downward movement of 31%, followed by the same again in February. Q1 was rounded out by the comparison deteriorating further, to a low of -35% compared with March 2025. Overall, for the quarter, EV sales were down 32.4%. 

Following the continued evolution of the lithium ion battery supply chain, and as part of its rolling methodology review process, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence announces the opening of the 2026 annual public consultation period, for comment on Benchmark's market-leading price assessment methodologies for lithium, nickel, cobalt, natural graphite, synthetic graphite, anode, cathode, black mass and rare earths.

In July, Hunan Yuneng announced a price increase across its LFP CAM range, citing "global geopolitical fluctuations and supply chain disruptions" affecting sulphur, phosphoric acid, and iron sulphate. Hunan Yuneng will raise prices for all lithium iron phosphate products by a flat rate of RMB2,000/t (USD296/t) from 1 August, citing higher upstream raw material costs and strong demand exceeding available capacity. This could represent a boon for the LFP recycling market. Traditionally, this market has prioritised lithium carbonate among the recoverable materials due to its higher value, while recovery of iron phosphate has received less attention. However, the current price surge highlights the importance of all recoverable materials contained within LFP scrap.

Superalloys have become an increasingly important part of the cobalt supply chain. Superalloys are the largest source of cobalt demand behind battery applications. They are used in both commercial and defence aerospace applications. In 2025, cobalt demand from superalloys reached 20kt, up 7.5%, supported by increased defence spending, as assessed by Benchmark’s Cobalt Service. While cobalt-containing superalloys service a wide range of end markets, aerospace is the largest, accounting for 58% of cobalt demand from superalloys, approximately 11.5kt in 2025.

The US government is moving to treat recoverable critical minerals- including end-of-life rare-earth permanent magnets, manufacturing swarf and other waste - as strategic national defence resources. A recent presidential determination gives the Department of Commerce a legal basis to introduce measures that could restrict exports and prioritise domestic recovery. For the rare-earth and magnet supply chain, the US may seek to restrict exports of end-of-life NdFeB magnets, retain magnet-manufacturing scrap and swarf domestically, and limit exports of rare-earth-bearing waste to overseas processors. It could also support US-based magnet dismantling, demagnetisation, separation and rare-earth recovery, improving domestic access to secondary NdPr, Dy and Tb feedstock and creating a more secure supply base for US magnet manufacturing.

Recent offtake agreements and project developments highlight accelerating efforts to establish a European anode supply chain spanning both natural and synthetic graphite. Swedish graphite developer Talga Group has recently announced three supply arrangements linked to its planned Vittangi operations in Sweden, as a growing number of customer agreements points to rising interest in European-origin natural-graphite anode active material (AAM) supply. Talga’s vertically integrated project is set to have a nameplate capacity of 19.5ktpa of AAM for premium high-performance battery applications. “The Vittangi project also exemplifies a domestic supply model, sourcing raw materials in Sweden, where it is located,” said Tony Alderson, a research manager at Benchmark. “This contrasts with wider efforts to diversify supply chains away from China, which have increasingly focused on African sources.”