Q3 2025 Black Mass Price Review: China lifts black mass import restrictions

Black mass markets in Q3 2025 were largely shaped by China’s lifting of import restrictions on 1 August, which re-routed trade flows. Outside of China, this has created a two-tier market divided by compliance with Chinese custom’s quality controls. Compliant material commanded high premiums (79%–84%), while producers of non-compliant batches struggled to clear material, trading at lower payables (70%–75%).

Despite China’s relaxation of its black mass import ban, the country’s stringent policing of imports kept liquidity relatively subdued. Those companies importing material did so in small volumes, often using subsidiaries or partners to avoid scrutiny and focusing primarily on high quality batches from production scrap feedstock.

Key trends by chemistry

Across chemistries, NCM payables held firm globally this quarter, supported by stable-to-bullish cobalt and nickel prices, as well as robust Asian demand. LCO recovered from earlier lows as virgin cobalt metal and chemical prices rose due to the extension of the DRC’s export ban.

LFP black mass prices, by contrast, rose at the start of the quarter due to concerns of hard rock supply tightening, elevating the price of lithium chemicals in China. However, as these fears subsided, lithium chemical prices dipped, squeezing the margins at processors, in turn causing a drop in the price for LFP black mass.

Key regional trends in black mass prices in Q3

China: China’s import ban removal hasn’t flooded the market as many expected, since cautious procurement, strict compliance requirements, and customs scrutiny tempered import volumes. Moreover, margins at hydrometallurgical plants remained weak, primarily due to declines in lithium chemical prices. This put operations under pressure, especially those handling LFP black mass

Rest of Asia (ex China): In the seaborne Asia market, two bands of payables have emerged due to Chinese import rule compliance. Otherwise, the market has become increasingly structured by upgrading practices, including blending and crude hydrometallurgy, amongst others.

North America: An increasingly constrained market dominated by quality differentiation has emerged. US material is favoured for consistency and quality over Europe, but greater demand has been capped by high freight costs, political instability, and batch variance. Supply has been restricted as some operations went offline and many producers have opted to withhold material in the hope that prices improve towards the end of 2025. Uncertainty surrounding policy is hindering expansion, investment, and large commercial deals.

Europe: European payable levels were volatile this quarter, hinging on the availability of production scrap sourced material. The waste vs product gap re-emerged because overseas buyers increasingly favoured higher quality product classified material that would be more likely to pass Chinese customs, elevating product status black mass payables. Furthermore, many buyers were unable to meet the logistical and cost hurdles of shipping hazardous waste classified material, putting downward pressure on these payables.