Runaway rally before stabilisation: Black Mass Q1 2026 Price Review

Black mass payables underwent a dynamic Q1 as trading levels for the recycled intermediate responded to bullish virgin battery metal prices, quietness through the CNY period in February, and a continued trend towards regional divergence.

Benchmark recorded the largest price movements in the seaborne Asia market, as CIF Asia NCM black mass rose by 10 percentage points between the end of December and end of the quarter. Benchmark’s EXW China LFP black mass also underwent significant gains, increasing by 28.4% across the same period. European and North American payables underwent shifts of a similar magnitude despite responding to virgin market movements in a delayed fashion towards the end of February.

Black mass payables surged towards the end of January, driven by bullishness in the battery metal markets in the domestic China market. Lithium’s price rally being the most influential, with battery grade lithium carbonate rising by 45.6% throughout the quarter. Favourable quotation periods, bullish speculative traders and new Asian capacity coming online buoyed payables further.

In February, domestic Chinese black mass payables softened amid easing virgin battery metal prices and falling liquidity ahead of CNY. Outside China, however, particularly in seaborne Asia and Europe, prices continued to catch up, reflecting China-led pricing and a delayed response to earlier moves in virgin markets.

As Chinese refiners sought more feedstock for their underutilised hydrometallurgical plants, seaborne Asia responded the most vigorously, causing many players outside of China to be priced out of auctions as payables reached 140% and 91% for production scrap and EOL feedstock black mass, respectively.

March brought a more regionalised picture. Chinese payables were broadly stable as the market resumed gradually after CNY and virgin market plateaued, with hydrometallurgical plants adopting ad hoc procurement strategies. In the ex-China markets, prices continued to rise in response to earlier virgin price movements, before correcting lower later in the month as margins came under pressure.

By quarter-end, black mass was still trading well above the levels seen at the start of the year, but the market had shifted from a runaway rally to a more stable and regionally fragmented pricing environment.