Adam Megginson

CATL's Jianxiawo restart will lift Jiangxi's near-term lithium output, but offsetting suspensions and deferrals elsewhere in the province leave Benchmark's Q2 lithium forecast supply balance and price forecast essentially unchanged. CATL secured the safety production permit for its Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi, China on 29 June, the last official hurdle to restarting a mine that has sat idle since August 2025, when its permit expired amid a province-wide enforcement crackdown. The restart arrives slightly ahead of the September timing Benchmark's Q2 Lithium forecast had initially assumed, with 62,500 tonnes LCE now forecast to be mined from Jianxiawo in 2026. This equates to roughly 1.5% of global mined supply, with the operation ramping towards its mine-site processing capacity of by 2029.

CATL can likely restart its Jianxiawo lepidolite lithium mine in Jiangxi, China after securing a safety production permit. Benchmark has seen a copy of the permit certificate, which was considered the last official hurdle CATL needed to overcome to resume production at the mine which has been idle since August 2025. Benchmark’s Q2 Lithium Forecast anticipates 37kt lithium carbonate equivalent to be mined from Jianxiawo in 2026 assuming a September restart, accounting for ~1.5% of global mined lithium supply. This production figure could increase if the mine is restarted earlier than expected, something that is increasingly likely given the rapid pace of approvals in the past week. The mine is anticipated to operate at its planned capacity of 150ktpa by 2029.

As the lithium market continues to mature, participants are increasingly looking to untangle the speculative forces exacerbating volatility in lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices from true cell demand signals. The chemical and market properties of battery-grade lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) electrolyte salt make it an ideal leading indicator for the broader lithium market. Between 31 December 2025 and 28 January 2026, lithium carbonate prices rallied 52%, as reported by Benchmark’s Lithium Price Assessment. This rally was foretold by LiPF6 prices which moved up by 108% between 29 October 2025 and 26 November 2025.

Lithium prices are rising significantly in China due to feedstock constraints and increased input costs, against a backdrop of robust demand. According to Benchmark’s 13 May price assessment, battery grade lithium carbonate in China rose 23.3% month-on-month, while spodumene concentrate prices are up 29.9% over the same period.

The first quarter of 2026 marked a volatile, yet robust, quarter for lithium. Prices surged in January, driven by depleted inventories, supply disruptions and policy optimism, before softening in February, and turning more cautious in March, as weaker EV demand figures weighed on sentiment. In early January, Chinese lithium prices rallied sharply as inventories sat at notably low levels across the domestic supply chain. Sentiment improved on expectations of government stimulus, resilience in EV and particularly ESS demand, and speculative momentum in domestic futures markets.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is pleased to announce the launch of its Lithium Forward Price Curves, providing the market with a new benchmark for year-ahead lithium price expectations across key battery raw material grades.

Underwhelming EV sales figures by Chinese automakers in February and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East combined leading to a dramatic drop in daily lithium prices. On Tuesday 3rd of March 2026, the price of lithium futures on China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) fell by its daily limit (13%) from around 172,000 RMB/tonne to 150,860 RMB/tonne. Weakening sentiment amongst lithium futures traders was quickly mirrored in the physical spot market with Benchmark’s Lithium Carbonate (battery, spot) EXW China price settling at 157,100 RMB/tonne on 3 March, a 9.2% day-on-day decrease.