Jianxiawo is back, yet Jiangxi's lithium balance holds firm

CATL's Jianxiawo restart will lift Jiangxi's near-term lithium output, but offsetting suspensions and deferrals elsewhere in the province leave Benchmark's Q2 lithium forecast supply balance and price forecast essentially unchanged. CATL secured the safety production permit for its Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi, China on 29 June, the last official hurdle to restarting a mine that has sat idle since August 2025, when its permit expired amid a province-wide enforcement crackdown. The restart arrives slightly ahead of the September timing Benchmark's Q2 Lithium forecast had initially assumed, with 62,500 tonnes LCE now forecast to be mined from Jianxiawo in 2026. This equates to roughly 1.5% of global mined supply, with the operation ramping toward its 150,000tpa nameplate capacity by 2029.