Albert Mackenzie

Chilean copper mining group Antofagasta has, according to reports, settled a spot index-linked sale of copper concentrates. This is unusual, as Antofagasta ordinarily sell at set levels rather than floating, spot-linked sales. The company is the de facto negotiator of copper concentrate benchmark treatment charges/refining charges (TCs/RCs), so this update may have significant implications. A decline in importance of the benchmark system would increase focus on spot TCs at a time when the spot market is increasingly tight and the spread between long-term and spot TCs is growing.

The copper market is often feared to be at risk of a structural shortage leading to near term market tightness. However, these concerns have often proved to be overblown as historically the supply gaps have been filled. The slow speed at which new mine supply can come online and the expectation for rapidly growing demand from global electrification and accelerating AI adoption reinforces the narrative, and perhaps the price signal, that copper supply is scarce. However, this view may be too focused on how Western mines and Western companies invest in the copper space. Indeed, over the last 15 years, Chinese companies have demonstrated their ability to deploy capital and ramp up mines around the world faster than the conventional 10–20 years considered standard by countries in the West.

Copper has remained relatively flat since the start of the conflict in Iran, though it has shown some volatility day-to-day. Its apparent steadiness is a result of pressures both upward and downward on its price. Higher interest rates and inflation as a result of the war could add to mining and smelting costs, pushing prices higher. In the short term, however, and with prices generally very high at present, increased borrowing costs could slow demand and exert downward pressure.

Last week, market participants from across the world met in Santiago to discuss the copper market, though at times the conference was more focused on acid than the red metal. Participants were meeting as prices near all-time highs, exchange stocks remain swollen, and TCs continue to fall. There was certainly no shortage of things to discuss in Chile.

China may be looking to impose an export ban on sulphuric acid from May, a move that could put additional pressure on copper and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) producers.

Benchmark analysis of copper demand data highlights the increasing reliance in the West – and particularly in the US – on imported goods. It also draws attention to the proportion of Chinese copper consumption that is due to the export of manufactured goods.

US imports of refined copper grew 81% in 2025, compared to 2024, to a record high of 1,634kt. Driven by tariff fears, these imports were far in excess of US demand for the metal.

The margins of copper miners are at multi-year highs on the back of high copper prices, elevated by-product prices, and record low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs).

Copper prices broke all-time highs on 29 January 2026, with the three-month LME copper price hitting $14,527.50/tonne. This is the largest single day rise in the copper price since 2008, almost hitting the 12% daily moving limit set by the LME. However, this record level was short-lived, ending the day at $13,720.50/t and fell further when trading reopened on 30 January.

Rio Tinto and Glencore have announced discussions are taking place between the two companies to merge. The two companies are major copper miners and if the deal comes to fruition, the size of the merger would eclipse that of even Teck and Anglo American’s proposed merger. The statement on Rio Tinto’s website notes, “The parties’ current expectation is […]

Copper prices set a new record on 6 January, with the LME cash copper price reaching almost $13,300/t, having pushed above $13,000/t for the first time in history on Monday 5 January 2026. As recently as 15 December, prices had not yet broken $12,000/t, underscoring the speed and scale of the latest increase. Copper has […]