Copper hits another all-time high, but gains fail to hold

Copper prices broke all-time highs on 29 January 2026, with the three-month LME copper price hitting $14,527.50/tonne. This is the largest single day rise in the copper price since 2008, almost hitting the 12% daily moving limit set by the LME. However, this record level was short-lived, ending the day at $13,720.50/t and fell further when trading reopened on 30 January.

The rally likely originated in China as copper prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) pushed up aggressively prior to the LME opening on 29 January.

This volatility comes following a run of record setting copper prices. Despite these recent moves, the speed and timing of this price increase took the market by surprise especially as there has been increasing talk suggesting that the copper price has pushed up too far and too fast in recent weeks.

Why is the copper price increasing?

Towards the start of January 2026 the price passed $13,000/t for the first time in history, after breaking the $12,000/t record in December. Just a few months ago, the all time high was over $11,000/t.

In this period very little has fundamentally changed with no mine shutdowns or major stimulus package announcements, though there was some mine disruption and tariffs tightened the market outside of the US. There was some mine disruption earlier in the year, and tariffs have tightened the market outside the US.

The price increase on 29 January appears to be linked to copper’s role in the “debasement trade”. Given concerns about the dollar, investors want hard, physical assets. This is a role historically played by silver and gold, but increasingly money is spilling from those markets into copper.

“Huge asset management and macro funds, mainly in China (that are not your traditional metal commodity speculators) [are] piling in on the debasement and geopolitical metal market fragmentation trades,” one trader source told Benchmark, noting noting that a small amount of capital for those funds is relatively significant for the copper market.

Noise around AI could also be pushing prices up, as data centre build out is copper intensive. Meta announced plans to almost double spending on AI to $135bn for 2026 on the same day as the spike in copper prices.

However, there seems to be no definitive rationale behind the price on 29 January as no fundamental market development made copper intrinsically 10% more valuable.

Why did the copper price fall back down?

A fall in tech stocks, following weak Microsoft earnings which wiped $350 billion from their market capitalisation, pulled copper prices back down. Additionally, a recovering US dollar further lowered LME copper prices. It is also likely that market participants’ belief that the price had pushed too high led to an overall adjustment back down closer to previous levels.

How does this compare to the 2008 copper price spike?

This recent spike is the largest move since 2008, when the market pushed up by over 12% on October 29 2008, though the reasons are substantially different.

Copper prices had fallen so notably in 2008 due to the global financial crisis, that the record-breaking increase in October 2008 still left copper prices 46% lower than prices seen in June 2008. It also directly correlated to chatter about stimulus packages which buoyed copper prices.

This article draws on expert insights from the Benchmark Copper Service. Fill out the form below for more information.