Neha Mukherjee

The US government is moving to treat recoverable critical minerals- including end-of-life rare-earth permanent magnets, manufacturing swarf and other waste - as strategic national defence resources. A recent presidential determination gives the Department of Commerce a legal basis to introduce measures that could restrict exports and prioritise domestic recovery. For the rare-earth and magnet supply chain, the US may seek to restrict exports of end-of-life NdFeB magnets, retain magnet-manufacturing scrap and swarf domestically, and limit exports of rare-earth-bearing waste to overseas processors. It could also support US-based magnet dismantling, demagnetisation, separation and rare-earth recovery, improving domestic access to secondary NdPr, Dy and Tb feedstock and creating a more secure supply base for US magnet manufacturing.

Not all rare earth tonnes are equal. Evaluating project economics solely on total rare earth oxide (TREO) can therefore obscure the commodities that determine commercial viability. Heavy rare earth projects should be assessed against dysprosium and terbium (DyTb) prices, whilst light rare earth projects should be evaluated on their praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) oxide exposure. Benchmark released cost curves in the Q2 Benchmark Rare Earths Forecast. These are designed to compare projects within their relevant peer groups – light rare earth projects with light rare earth projects, and heavy rare earth projects with heavy rare earth projects – while also stress-testing publicly announced price floors and long-term price assumptions. “The conclusion is that diversified rare earth supply is achievable, but the economics differ by product,” said Neha Mukherjee, Benchmark’s research manager for rare earths. “Light rare earth supply can be supported with the price floor. For heavy rare earths, however, the ex-China DyTb premium is the economic signal required to bring new capacity online. If that premium compresses through policy intervention, excess supply, or demand destruction, much of the ex-China heavy rare earth pipeline will again become unviable.”

China has added 10 US entities to its export control list, prohibiting exports of dual-use items from China to those companies with immediate effect from 22 June 2026. The Ministry of Commerce named rare earth and magnet developers MP Materials and USA Rare Earth in addition to eight other companies in defence-related industries. The measure is entity-specific rather than a blanket restriction on rare earth exports to the US. Beijing positioned the move as a response to recent US actions targeting Chinese military-linked companies, including additions to the Pentagon’s 1260H list. In practice, the policy escalates previous licensing controls into a full prohibition on dual-use exports to the named firms.

Announcements in the US rare earths space in 2026 shows capital being deployed not only into mining, but also into separation, refining, metallisation, alloy production, magnet manufacturing, and recycling. This indicates that the US is increasingly targeting the full mine-to-magnet value chain rather than isolated project stages. This is a meaningful shift from the more upstream focused investment of previous years. The most recent development in this regard is Energy Fuels’ acquisition of magnet maker Vacuumschmelze (VAC) for a total cash-and-stock consideration of ~$1.9 billion. This deal builds on Energy Fuels’ previous deals with magnet producers and the rare earth metals producer Australian Strategic Materials.

China’s rare earth export regime remains largely unchanged following the 14–15 May 2026 summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, underlining limited progress on one of the most strategically sensitive elements of bilateral trade. A White House summary stated that Beijing had agreed to address US concerns over shortages of key rare earths, including yttrium, scandium, and neodymium. This marks a shift from October 2025, when Washington said China had committed to "effectively eliminate" export controls on critical minerals. That reference has now been dropped, signalling implicit acceptance that China’s export licensing regime – introduced in April 2025 in response to US tariffs, will remain in place.

The acquisition of Brazil’s Serra Verde by USA Rare Earth represents a significant, though not immediately transformative, development in the heavy rare earth (HREE) supply chain. Announced on 20 April, the deal - alongside USA Rare Earth’s earlier acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM) - highlights a broader push to establish an integrated, ex-China rare earth ecosystem. Serra Verde will also receive a price floor for four rare earths as part of a 15-year supply deal with the US government, the third such price floor in the industry after announcements by MP Materials and Lynas.

Since China introduced export restrictions on rare earths in April 2025, significant regional bifurcation of heavy rare earth prices has developed. In 2025, dysprosium oxide prices on a CIF North America basis were 4.4 times that of EXW China prices, with a similar difference for European prices in terbium. By 2027, Benchmark’s Rare Earths Service forecasts that this relative difference will almost double to 8.3 times. Although the difference is expected to reduce to 2035, the regional disparities are expected to persist.

Lynas Rare Earths has signed a binding Letter of Intent between its wholly owned subsidiary Lynas USA and the US Department of War (DoW) to finalise a rare earth oxide supply agreement. Under the arrangement, the DoW will allocate about $96miliion to purchase light and heavy rare earth oxide products from Lynas over a four-year period.

Lynas Rare Earths and Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE) have extended their long-term partnership to 2038, reinforcing a key non-Chinese supply route underpinning Japan’s strategy to diversify rare earth supply away from China.

HyProMag inaugurated the UK’s first commercial rare earth magnet recycling and manufacturing facility on 15 January at an event attended by Benchmark rare earth analysts Neha Mukherjee and Evelyn Zhou. The facility at Tyseley Energy Park uses Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HPMS) technology to produce up to 300 tonnes of NdFeB magnet blocks per ...

On 6 January 2026, China announced tighter export controls on dual-use items to Japan, including seven medium and heavy rare earth elements and any products containing them, including rare earth permanent magnets (REPM). Although the policy specifically targets Japanese military users, military end uses, and any end uses deemed to enhance Japan’s military capabilities, it […]

Aclara Resources’ Carina project in Goiás, Brazil, is positioning itself as a key future supplier of heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) through an environmentally responsible approach to ionic clay extraction. Benchmark’s Rare Earths team recently visited the Carina site and nearby pilot processing plant to evaluate technical progress and supply potential. “The site visit provided […]