Clear uptick in March BEV sales reported so far as the Iran war impacts petrol prices

Higher petrol prices and the threat of supply disruption have made consumers think twice about buying new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and instead consider buying a battery electric vehicle (BEV).

Early data releases covering BEV sales around the world for March 2026 show a clear uptick in interest due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Almost every market with released data has so far shown a greater year-on-year increase after the start of the war in Iran (based on March registrations) than before the war began (based on January and February registrations).

Petrol prices previously spiked as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though the impact this had on EV sales was more muted. Compared to then, the EV market is more mature with broader consumer acceptance creating ideal conditions for BEVs to be a clearer choice.

How does this trend differ by country?

New Zealand’s increase in March BEV registrations has been the standout in terms of year-on-year growth rates, surging by 263% compared to the same month last year. At the end of February, the country saw an increase in sales of 20% for the year, however after March, that growth rate is now more than 100% compared to 2025.

Since the start of the war, with petrol prices rising by over 20%, Oceania in general has been among the first to face concern over supplies at the pump if the Strait does not reopen soon with a significant portion of refining capabilities offshored.

Australia also saw a significant year-on-year growth rate, with 89% more BEV sales than March 2025. However, this actually represented a lower growth rate than the country had been experiencing so far this year as the first two months of 2025 were already very strong, with 111% growth albeit from a lower base. March 2025 is now a record month for Australian BEV registrations, more than 2,000 higher than the previous record set in June last year.

Although the impact on BEV sales in Europe has been more muted, the trend is still present. One stand-out has been Norway, which reversed a severe negative trend caused by changes to purchase tax incentives. It had been down 44% in the first two months, but March ended 51% higher than March 2025. This indicates the concern from consumers is more than enough to override lower incentive structures, even in markets that are very well progressed towards EVs.

The UK followed its typical seasonality with a huge increase in sales in March coinciding with the release of new number plates. While sales were up 265% month on month, this was equivalent to 18% growth compared to March 2025, again reversing a negative year-to-date trend of -1% from the end of February.

In France, although petrol prices have risen, some suppliers like TotalEnergies have introduced price caps. This spurred widespread ‘panic buying’ leading to reports of supply disruptions at the pump. Sales of BEVs in France jumped 69% YoY, although already off to a strong start thanks to new subsidy schemes, this still far outpaces the 36% growth seen for the January and February compared to the same period last year.

Is the trend expected for other countries?

There are further expectations for significant upticks in much of Asia which has a typically higher reliance on oil from the Gulf, meaning many of these countries have seen more immediate impacts on petrol prices and supply. Many impacted nations currently have burgeoning EV markets which have experienced recent growth via exports from China but remain in early stages.

It remains a question of how sustained an increase in EV sales could be, depending on inventory levels but also consumer spending. If the war progresses further and a short-term oil price crisis turns into an elongated supply crisis, inflationary pressures and economic downturn could have equally negative impacts on new vehicle purchases.

The analysis in this article draws on Benchmark's EV & Battery Service and insights from our in-house team of experts. To learn more about the Service, please fill out the form below: