Ex-China heavy rare earths continue to surge: Q3 2026 Rare Earths Price Review

Light and heavy rare earth prices diverged sharply for much of Q3 2026. The BMI Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide (PrNd) DDP China price eased by just 1% over the period, while the BMI PrNd CIF North America and Europe prices fell more sharply, slipping below the $110/kg floor built into MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths' agreements with the US Department of Defense. In contrast, ex-China dysprosium, terbium and yttrium prices surged, with BMI Dysprosium Oxide CIF Europe increasing 150% by quarter-end.

The defining theme of Q3 was the extreme widening of the China–ex-China bifurcation within heavy rare earths, a dynamic Benchmark's forecasting team expects to persist, noting that the ex-China DyTb premium is still the economic signal required to bring new heavy rare earth capacity online.

“There is mounting evidence that ex-China heavy rare earth supply chains remain acutely under-supplied relative to demand, a dynamic reflected in pricing across the quarter,” said George Ingall, a senior rare earth price analyst at Benchmark. “Chinese export restrictions continued to constrain availability, with buyers paying significant premiums to secure larger volumes of dysprosium and terbium. Light rare earths beyond China remained oversupplied, though this dynamic is stabilising.”

How wide did heavy rare earth price bifurcation get in Q3?

CIF Europe dysprosium oxide prices are now around 16.3 times DDP China price levels, up from 6.8 times at the end of Q2. This is even starker for yttrium oxide, for which the CIF North America price sits at roughly 196 times the equivalent DDP China price.

Over the course of July, dysprosium oxide CIF Europe prices climbed more than 16% as ex-China buyers scrambled for scarce material, while the Chinese domestic assessment moved only fractionally. Terbium oxide in China rose nearly 6% on tight availability, while yttrium markets were comparatively subdued in both regions.

In August, ex-China heavy rare earths rose, with dysprosium oxide CIF Europe surging more than 32%, terbium oxide CIF Europe by 10%, and yttrium oxide CIF North America nearly 18%. Scarcity continued to underpin heavy rare earth pricing. A US presidential determination moved to treat recoverable rare earths and end-of-life magnets as strategic defence resources, a step that could improve future domestic access to secondary dysprosium and terbium feedstock. Chinese domestic heavy rare earth pricing was comparatively muted in August, with dysprosium and terbium easing slightly.

By September, dysprosium oxide CIF Europe gained 56% to reach an average of $3,500/kg and terbium oxide rose 23% to $6,745/kg, driven by premiums on larger-volume transactions, while Chinese domestic dysprosium and terbium prices continued to retreat from their mid-Q3 highs. Yttrium oxide held steady in both China and North America, with ongoing US production limiting further upward momentum.

What happened to PrNd oxide prices in Q3?

In July, PrNd CIF Europe/North America pricing held flat, while prices in China ticked modestly higher before renewed weakness took hold. Then, in August, ex-China PrNd oxide prices fell over 13%, with the decline accelerating late in the month as ex-China producers, wary of the reputational sensitivity of selling into China, redirected volume toward an increasingly oversupplied ex-China market. This led to a 7.3% drop between 6–20 August alone. Chinese domestic PrNd, now commanding a premium, fell a more moderate 5% over the same month.

PrNd prices stabilised in China by September, with the oxide assessment edging up 1% to an average of RMB729,500/t (USD$108,696), while ex-China prices rose 12% to $106,500/t on a CIF basis.

What could impact rare earths prices in Q4?

An update is due from China’s government on rare earth export restrictions when the current controls expire in November.

“Buyers speaking to Benchmark have already indicated they have had little luck exporting ytterbium and erbium from China in recent months, even though these minerals are not currently under export controls,” Ingall said. “In North America and Europe, meanwhile, demo- and pilot-scale procurement from aspiring magnet makers is likely to drive up heavy rare earth oxide prices.”

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