George Ingall

Increased DRC exports led to cobalt hydroxide prices (CIF Asia) falling 31% to across Q3 to $17.25/lb ($38,030/tonne), while cobalt sulphate prices (EXW China) dropped nearly 30% to RMB 58,000/tonne ($8,642), according to Benchmark’s Cobalt Price Assessment. EXW Europe cobalt metal prices eased about 11%, while CIF Asia MHP cobalt payables sank from 91.5% to 65.8% by mid September as a result of cheaper hydroxide offering an alternative. “Q3 2026 has seen a broad decline in prices across the cobalt supply chain as rising DRC-origin supply succeeded the weak downstream buying that defined Q2,” said George Ingall, a senior cobalt price analyst at Benchmark.

Light and heavy rare earth prices diverged sharply for much of Q3 2026. The BMI Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide (PrNd) DDP China price eased by just 1% over the period, while the BMI PrNd CIF North America and Europe prices fell more sharply, slipping below the $110/kg floor built into MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths' agreements with the US Department of Defense. In contrast, ex-China dysprosium, terbium and yttrium prices surged, with BMI Dysprosium Oxide CIF Europe increasing 150% by quarter-end.

Benchmark has observed no cobalt hydroxide trades over the past 10 days, leading to the daily price assessments to hold steady at $22.00–$23.00/lb. However, Benchmark has noted a widening spread between bids and offers, which are reported between $17.00–$22.00/lb in Benchmark’s weekly cobalt price assessment. Benchmark's daily CIF Asia cobalt hydroxide assessment only accounts for confirmed  transactions rather than indications, sentiment, or levels at which somebody says they would be willing to deal, which means it tracks evidenced trades and nothing else. That design choice is usually invisible to the user, because in a functioning market the distance between a trade and a well-informed indication is small, but in a week like this one it becomes the whole picture. Put those two series side-by-side and the market becomes legible, because the sell-side remains anchored to the level where material last actually changed hands while the buy-side has marked itself down five dollars, or roughly 23% below it. Nothing has traded across that gap, so the bid has not been validated by a single transaction and the offer has not been tested by a single buyer willing to lift it.

NdPr oxide prices have fallen below a key psychological and structural benchmark, dropping to $95,000/tonne CIF Europe and North America, beneath the $110/kg price floor established under MP Materials' agreement with the US Department of Defense. The decline, down 7.3% over the assessment period, highlights a widening gap between where the spot market is trading and the mechanisms designed to underpin domestic production economics, a divergence that carries different implications depending on where one sits in the supply chain. For producers benefiting from the floor price, the mechanism provides a guaranteed minimum return regardless of spot conditions, insulating them from the current downturn. For downstream buyers, however, the falling ex-China spot price represents a genuine cost benefit, offering access to NdPr oxide at levels meaningfully below the policy-supported floor.

Cobalt hydroxide prices (CIF Asia) have fallen sharply over recent weeks, though the shift reflects a wide and largely untested spread between bids and offers rather than a real collapse in market value. With no confirmed transactions concluded during the period, Benchmark's hydroxide index fell by over 11% week-on-week to $17–22/lb, capturing a market in which sellers are offering material at around $22/lb, while buyers are bidding at $17–20/lb.

Superalloys have become an increasingly important part of the cobalt supply chain. Superalloys are the largest source of cobalt demand behind battery applications. They are used in both commercial and defence aerospace applications. In 2025, cobalt demand from superalloys reached 20kt, up 7.5%, supported by increased defence spending, as assessed by Benchmark’s Cobalt Service. While cobalt-containing superalloys service a wide range of end markets, aerospace is the largest, accounting for 58% of cobalt demand from superalloys, approximately 11.5kt in 2025.

Rare earth pricing trended downwards through most of April and May, before showing tentative signs of stabilisation and a slight recovery in June. Throughout the quarter, Benchmark’s China PrNd oxide index fell by ~5%, pulling back from the peak levels during the robust Q1 rally. However, heavy rare earths showed more divergent trends, with dysprosium and terbium staging a meaningful recovery by the end of the period. The defining theme of Q2, however, was the widening gulf between Chinese domestic and ex-China heavy rare earth prices, a continuation of dynamics set in motion by China's curbing of exports to Japan back in January. As the largest consumer of heavy rare earths outside China, Japan had historically relied heavily on direct Chinese supply. With that channel restricted since the start of the year, Japanese buyers spent Q2 aggressively sourcing material from the limited pool available in Europe and North America, progressively bidding up ex-China prices while Chinese domestic pricing remained comparatively insulated. 

In Q2 2026, cobalt prices have been characterised by growing downward pressure, as the supply-side support that defined Q1 proved insufficient to counteract the widespread weakness in spot buying across the downstream battery supply chain. Throughout the quarter, cobalt prices remained rangebound, though market sentiment shifted from cautiously bullish to a more dampened tone. A persistent lack of downstream demand gradually eclipsed the Q1 supply-side support, while spot liquidity stayed minimal as a result of the DRC’s restriction of exports and, while feedstock availability remained restricted, the absence of restocking interest pressured cobalt sulphate pricing as the quarter progressed. Consequently, Benchmark’s CIF Asia cobalt hydroxide index closed the period virtually flat compared to its opening price.

Cobalt prices remain broadly stable, with higher-than-expected inventory levels in China continuing to offset emerging supply-side disruptions and rising upstream costs. Market participants speaking to Benchmark said that cobalt demand remains soft, particularly across the consumer electronics sector, with no clear signs of recovery. Some producers have responded by curtailing output, contributing to limited spot market activity and cautious purchasing behaviour across the supply chain.

Rare earth prices surged through January and February before some grades, particularly magnet materials, softened sharply in March. Over the quarter, Benchmark’s China praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) oxide assessment rose by ~30%.

Cobalt prices throughout the first quarter traded within a relatively tight range, yet with a distinctly bullish undertone supported by feedstock tightness rather than any notable real demand recovery.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is pleased to announce the launch of 44 rare earth permanent magnet price grades, bringing a new level of transparency to one of the most opaque and strategically important markets in the energy transition supply chain. The new service, launching Thursday 2 April, will cover rare earth permanent magnet prices across Japan/South Korea, Europe, North America and China, offering market participants an independent benchmark for tracking price movements across key magnet products and regional markets.