George Ingall

In Q2 2026, cobalt prices have been characterised by growing downward pressure, as the supply-side support that defined Q1 proved insufficient to counteract the widespread weakness in spot buying across the downstream battery supply chain. Throughout the quarter, cobalt prices remained rangebound, though market sentiment shifted from cautiously bullish to a more dampened tone. A persistent lack of downstream demand gradually eclipsed the Q1 supply-side support, while spot liquidity stayed minimal as a result of the DRC’s restriction of exports and, while feedstock availability remained restricted, the absence of restocking interest pressured cobalt sulphate pricing as the quarter progressed. Consequently, Benchmark’s CIF Asia cobalt hydroxide index closed the period virtually flat compared to its opening price.

Cobalt prices remain broadly stable, with higher-than-expected inventory levels in China continuing to offset emerging supply-side disruptions and rising upstream costs. Market participants speaking to Benchmark said that cobalt demand remains soft, particularly across the consumer electronics sector, with no clear signs of recovery. Some producers have responded by curtailing output, contributing to limited spot market activity and cautious purchasing behaviour across the supply chain.

Rare earth prices surged through January and February before some grades, particularly magnet materials, softened sharply in March. Over the quarter, Benchmark’s China praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) oxide assessment rose by ~30%.

Cobalt prices throughout the first quarter traded within a relatively tight range, yet with a distinctly bullish undertone supported by feedstock tightness rather than any notable real demand recovery.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is pleased to announce the launch of 44 rare earth permanent magnet price grades, bringing a new level of transparency to one of the most opaque and strategically important markets in the energy transition supply chain. The new service, launching Thursday 2 April, will cover rare earth permanent magnet prices across Japan/South Korea, Europe, North America and China, offering market participants an independent benchmark for tracking price movements across key magnet products and regional markets.

Since China introduced export restrictions on rare earths in April 2025, significant regional bifurcation of heavy rare earth prices has developed. In 2025, dysprosium oxide prices on a CIF North America basis were 4.4 times that of EXW China prices, with a similar difference for European prices in terbium. By 2027, Benchmark’s Rare Earths Service forecasts that this relative difference will almost double to 8.3 times. Although the difference is expected to reduce to 2035, the regional disparities are expected to persist.

Domestic Chinese praseodymium‑neodymium (PrNd) oxide prices have rallied in recent weeks to around $125/kg, the highest they have been since 2022, pushing up prices outside the country. Alongside this, China’s increased export controls on heavy rare earths exports to China are tightening ex-China supply, widening regional bifurcation. China’s dominance across mining, separation and magnet production mean international buyers typically price against Chinese benchmarks. As a result, policy decisions on quotas or export controls from China have a significant impact on the global market. As such, Western consumers remain price‑takers in rare earths markets where liquidity, transparency and alternative supply remain limited. This exposes manufacturers, particularly in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence systems and high‑efficiency motors, to sudden input cost volatility originating from policy shifts within China.

Estonian startup UP Catalyst is turning CO₂ emissions into battery-grade graphite. As one of the 47 strategic projects selected under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) and with funding from the European Investment Bank (EIB), UP Catalyst’s twin mission is to help Europe reduce its dependence on Chinese graphite and address decarbonisation. Following a...