From cautiously bullish to downward pressure: Q2 2026 Cobalt Price Review

In Q2 2026, cobalt prices has been characterised by growing downward pressure, as the supply-side support that defined Q1 proved insufficient to counteract the widespread weakness in spot buying across the downstream battery supply chain.

Throughout the quarter, cobalt prices remained rangebound, though market sentiment shifted from cautiously bullish to a more dampened tone. A persistent lack of downstream demand gradually eclipsed the Q1 supply-side support, while spot liquidity stayed minimal as a result of the DRC’s restriction of exports and, while feedstock availability remained restricted, the absence of restocking interest pressured cobalt sulphate pricing as the quarter progressed. Consequently, Benchmark’s CIF Asia cobalt hydroxide index closed the period virtually flat compared to its opening price.

pCAM procurement remained reserved

In April, cobalt sulphate prices edged downwards, falling by approximately 1–2% on a week-on-week basis throughout the month. This softening was driven by precursor cathode active material (pCAM) manufacturers maintaining a conservative procurement strategy amid thin spot trading. Although hydroxide and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) prices remained elevated due to significant upstream tightness, this failed to ignite downstream purchasing, as buyers favoured just-in-time acquisition strategies in the face of ongoing pricing volatility.

Following the China Labour Day holidays in May, the market remained quiet. A brief attempt by refiners to raise offers resulted in a marginal price uptick, yet these gains were quickly halted by resistance from downstream consumers. Despite reports of solid year-on-year growth in battery production and sales, spot market activity was not stimulated, as players continued to rely on existing inventories. Cobalt oxide prices were rolled over during this period due to a lack of transactional volume. The anticipated seasonal demand surge for LCO cells in May and June failed to emerge, as cell manufacturers shifted towards NCM chemistries, which use cobalt sulphate rather than cobalt oxide as a feedstock.

Sellers increasingly offloading later in the quarter

By June, selling pressure became more pronounced, and cobalt sulphate prices experienced a sharp decline, sliding by over 3% week-on-week to reach quarterly lows. Sellers increasingly attempted to offload material into a sluggish spot market, but buyers resisted transacting above the RMB 90,000/tonne ($13,230) mark, even when offers reached RMB 92,000/tonne ($13,524). Meanwhile, cobalt hydroxide pricing remained stable as supply remained constrained by DRC export limitations; however, market expectations suggested a potential recovery in material flow by July or August as quota conditions shifted.