Port congestion at Lagos, licence fee increases, and a deteriorating security environment in northwest Nigeria are constraining spodumene concentrate exports to China.

Port capacity strained

Q1 2026 shipments are tracking well below Nigeria’s mining and concentrating capacity, with market participants pointing to a structural trade imbalance at Lagos as the primary bottleneck. Terminal operators there have periodically suspended the reception of returned empty containers, citing saturated yard space.

Nigeria's 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures, signed on 1st April, cut import duties across 127 tariff lines, which has increased inbound container volumes and worsened already strained port capacity.

Security concerns around lithium sites

Additionally, significant fee hikes for exploration and mining licences reduced small-scale legal mining in 2025, while the Canmax-supported Three Crown Mines in Kebbi was closed over illegal mining allegations.

In the north of the country, the security environment has deteriorated, and the Islamic State-linked Lakurawa group has carried out attacks, particularly around Lake Kainji, where several lithium projects are located. Benchmark's base case remains that these projects will proceed, but the concentration of future capacity near active conflict zones warrants monitoring.

Nigerian export constraints add to an already tightening global feedstock picture. Benchmark's 2026 feedstock balance estimates a concentrate deficit of approximately 107 kt LCE, with Zimbabwe's ongoing export suspension and Jiangxi's regulatory tightening also reducing supply responsiveness. At a 3.25% grade assumption, Nigerian exports currently annualise to around 85 kt LCE, approximately 17 kt below Benchmark's forecast of 103 kt.