Cameron Perks

CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine, China's largest lithium mine by capacity, is back in care and maintenance after a brief and informal restart in July. Any return to production is now gated by an environmental review since the mine’s Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was revoked. Completing the review could stretch into the fourth quarter or into 2027. Benchmark has almost halved its 2026 mined output forecast for Jianxiawo as a result.

Producers in Qinghai's Qaidam Basin have sharply lifted how much lithium they recover from brine, yet the province's output is not increasing as a result. The disconnect points to feedstock and water, rather than technology, as the real bottlenecks on China's largest lithium-brine region. Benchmark visited the basin in August, allowing us to verify our China salt-lake forecast against the work of producers on the ground.

CATL's Jianxiawo restart will lift Jiangxi's near-term lithium output, but offsetting suspensions and deferrals elsewhere in the province leave Benchmark's Q2 lithium forecast supply balance and price forecast essentially unchanged. CATL secured the safety production permit for its Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi, China on 29 June, the last official hurdle to restarting a mine that has sat idle since August 2025, when its permit expired amid a province-wide enforcement crackdown. The restart arrives slightly ahead of the September timing Benchmark's Q2 Lithium forecast had initially assumed, with 62,500 tonnes LCE now forecast to be mined from Jianxiawo in 2026. This equates to roughly 1.5% of global mined supply, with the operation ramping towards its mine-site processing capacity of by 2029.

Yongxing and Canmax have announced plans to merge two adjacent lepidolite mines in Jiangxi, China's largest lithium-mica hub, in a deal Benchmark expects to delay fresh lithium supply in the near term even as it unlocks substantial output over the longer term. Under the deal, Canmax subsidiary Yichun Shengyuan Lithium will inject its Jinzifeng mine, valued at RMB 2.7 billion (~$396 million), into Yongxing's Huaqiao Mining in exchange for a 50% stake, with both parties then applying for a single unified mining right designed for 18 million tonnes of ore per year.

A May rally has seen lithium hit $24,000/t on Benchmark’s CIF Asia assessment, and RMB193,000/t EXW China – just below the psychologically important RMB 200,000/t level. The April 2026 forward curve has market participants pricing further upside into mid-year before easing modestly into 2027.

Greenbushes, the world’s largest hard-rock lithium mine, is struggling with a structural decline in ore feed grade that is now materially impacting production and costs. IGO announced this week that spodumene concentrate output for Q1 was 351kt, prompting a full-year FY26 guidance cut to 1,375–1,425kt from 1,500–1,650kt. Benchmark’s Q1 2026 lithium supply forecast had Greenbushes at approximately 270,000 tonnes LCE for 2026 calendar year, underpinned by 1,850kt of spodumene concentrate across the year. The March quarter result, and the likelihood of a softer Q2, means the first half of 2026 is now tracking approximately 170kt SC below our forecast, equivalent to a shortfall of roughly 25,000 tonnes LCE.

Port congestion at Lagos, licence fee increases, and a deteriorating security environment in northwest Nigeria are constraining spodumene concentrate exports to China. Q1 2026 shipments are tracking well below Nigeria’s mining and concentrating capacity, with market participants pointing to a structural trade imbalance at Lagos as the primary bottleneck. Terminal operators there have periodically suspended the reception of returned empty containers, citing saturated yard space.

On 2nd April, Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines and Mining Development outlined the prerequisite conditions for lifting the country's ban on lithium concentrate exports, signalling a potential thaw in the export suspension imposed in February 2026. The move reflects the government's intent to unlock value from the sector while enforcing strict domestic beneficiation requirements and operational standards. The conditions, detailed in a letter to the Chamber of Mines, represent a high bar for operators and reveal significant friction points between Zimbabwe's policy ambitions and the economics facing miners and converters.

Albemarle plans to idle its 25ktpa capacity Kemerton lithium hydroxide processing plant in Western Australia, citing “challenges facing Western hard-rock lithium conversion operations”. Kemerton processes spodumene from Albemarle’s Greenbushes mine into lithium hydroxide. In 2025, it produced an estimated 7.5kt LCE and was forecast to produce 22kt LCE in 2026. Expansions planned for 2029 could have added 75ktpa capacity. The idling of Kemerton materially weakens the near-term outlook for Australian lithium chemical refining as Kemerton was forecast to account for 46% of the country’s lithium chemical output in 2026 and had the potential to increase this to 49% by 2036.

Australian lithium miner PLS has executed a two-year binding offtake agreement with Canmax, a Chinese battery materials producer, for up to 150ktpa of spodumene concentrate (SC) starting in mid-2026. The deal includes a floor price of US$1,000/t and is subject to a US$100m unsecured, interest-free prepayment. There is an option to extend the offtake a further 12 months. The price floor is comfortably above the costs of PLS’ Ngungaju plant. It is also consistent with Benchmark’s view that hard-rock feedstock will be supported above US$1,000/t through 2026.

China has introduced a national capacity‑based pricing mechanism for grid‑side independent energy storage, marking a structural shift in how storage assets are compensated within the power system.

Market expectations around the restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium operation are increasingly diverging from Benchmark’s base-case assumption that production would resume shortly after the Lunar New Year which takes place in February this year. Claims circulating in the market this week indicate Jianxiawo requires remediation related to inadequate tailings pond impermeability and its proximity to