Upstream volatility driving shifts: Cathode Q1 2026 Price Review

The CAM market recorded a strong first quarter, with prices rising sharply throughout January and February before stabilising in March as feedstock volatility eased and battery demand remained steady. Benchmark data shows that LFP CAM prices increased by ~38% between mid-January and mid-March, whilst NCM811 rose by ~25% over the same period.

In January and February, nickel-based CAM prices rose across all grades, particularly mid- and high-nickel materials, as higher lithium hydroxide, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices were rapidly passed through to production costs. Robust ordering from Tier 1 cell manufacturers, alongside expectations of adjustments to China’s battery export tax rebate policy, provided additional support on the demand side.

LFP recorded an even stronger increase over the same period, driven by rising lithium carbonate prices, higher iron phosphate costs and increased sulphuric acid input costs. ESS remained a consistent pillar of demand for LFP, even as China's domestic EV demand was seasonally soft. This underpinned higher-than-anticipated operating rates and enabled suppliers to push through higher offers.

By mid-March, CAM prices had largely stabilised. Nickel-based materials saw only modest additional gains, with demand mixed and buyers adopting a more cautious stance following the post-CNY restart. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range, rising earlier in the assessment period in line with lithium chemical prices before easing in the latter half amidst spot market weakness.

LFP continued to edge higher across March, rising by a further ~4%, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the quarter, supported by resilient ESS demand and persistent cost pressures. In contrast, LCO prices remained stable amidst subdued consumer electronics demand during the month.

Overall, Q1 price movements were driven primarily by raw material cost pass-through rather than a notable uplift in end-market demand, underscoring the market’s continued sensitivity to upstream volatility.