What do Chile’s recent election results mean for the lithium and copper industries?

Conservative hardliner José Antonio Kast has been elected president of Chile, winning 58% of the vote. This marks a decisive shift in the country’s political landscape, as a leftist coalition under Gabriel Boric formed the previous government. This shift will have knock-on impacts on the lithium and copper industries, given the country’s importance to international supply and the materials’ role in the country’s economy.

Chile’s role in global supply

Chile is a key global supplier of both lithium and copper. According to Benchmark’s Lithium Service, it accounts for 18% of mined lithium supply, making it the third-largest producer after Australia and China. It also accounts for 15% of refined lithium supply, giving it the second-largest refining capacity behind only China. For copper, Benchmark’s Copper Service shows Chile provides 23% of global mined supply, the largest share worldwide. Its share of refined copper is 6% in a segment largely dominated by China.

How is Kast expected to change the country’s dynamics?

Lithium

Kast’s presidency is likely to mark a recalibration rather than a rupture in Chile’s lithium policy, potentially reducing the degree of state involvement in the lithium industry that resulted from Boric’s state-centred National Lithium Strategy. While existing contracts with SQM and Albemarle are expected to be respected, his clear opposition to Boric’s National Lithium Strategy suggests a shift away from the presumption of state control. The rejection of a national lithium company and scepticism towards the SQM–Codelco deal point to a more market-oriented framework, with greater private participation through expertise and capital . This implies the strategy could go “back to the drawing board”, particularly on the role of the state, and the large number of CEOLs (Special Lithium Operating Contracts) yet to be awarded could be used to reopen the sector more decisively to private investment.

Copper

In copper, Kast’s impact is likely to be evolutionary rather than disruptive. He is expected to prioritise investor confidence and a more business-friendly tone internationally, while leaving the state ownership of Codelco intact. That said, political influence over Codelco’s leadership remains significant, and a change in administration could well lead to a replacement of Máximo Pacheco with a figure closer to the new government. The focus could be on improving efficiency, and investment discipline , rather than altering the fundamental role of Codelco or Chile’s long-standing copper model.