Export interventions and payables under pressure: Q3 2026 Black Mass Price Review

Benchmark’s NCM Black Mass EXW China payables have fallen 4.9% since the end of Q2, from 77.0% to 73.3%. Benchmark’s LCO Black Mass EXW China payables fell even more sharply, down 7.5% and 13.2% quarter-on-quarter for lithium carbonate and cobalt sulphate respectively, reaching 70.8% for both.

Benchmark NCM Black Mass CIF Asia payables fell 10.4% q-o-q, from 120% to 107.5%, while Benchmark NCM Black Mass EXW North America and EXW Europe payables have dropped 13.6% and 8.3% respectively.

“Throughout Q3 2026, global black mass payables fell on the back of weakening cobalt and lithium prices, with high-cobalt materials faring the worst,” said Frederick Bloomfield, senior analyst at Benchmark. “Furthermore, the trend towards regional fragmentation and cautious procurement continued following the US government’s regulatory intervention on black mass exports.”

Why did Chinese black mass payables keep sliding in Q3?

Battery recyclers continued to face margin pressure amid subdued virgin metal pricing, as cobalt sulphate, nickel sulphate and lithium carbonate declined -33.3%, -13.0% and -17.9% q-o-q, respectively. Consequently, LCO black mass suffered the most significant losses, weighed down heavily by steeply declining cobalt prices and a broad lack of appetite for cobalt-containing material.

LFP black mass prices trended negatively too, with the lithium price per percentage point falling from RMB 7,350/tonne at the end of June to RMB 6,350/tonne by the end of the quarter as its values traced prices in the lithium carbonate market.

What happened to black mass payables outside of China?

Outside China, payables mirrored trends in the domestic China market in a lagged manner as weak battery metal markets weighed on payables and sapped buying interest from the market. By the end of the quarter, traders were offering material to the market at discounted levels in efforts to sell quickly before further losses unfolded.

Again, CIF Asia LCO black mass payables suffered the biggest losses this quarter (-19.5% q-o-q) as virgin cobalt prices plummeted and demand underwhelmed. Buyers began to refuse high-Co black mass cargoes, whilst suppliers had to lower offers to offload material. As a result, CIF Asia LCO black mass from EOL fell from 92.5% to 74.5% from the end of Q2 to the end of Q3.

Liquidity for LFP black mass grew during Q3 as more players in Asia switched their attention to LFP feedstocks, with prices going up and gate fees becoming less common.

How are US black mass export restrictions reshaping flows?

The US government has issued a temporary ruling requiring US recyclers to allocate 100% of monthly black mass sales to US buyers unless granted an exception, effective from 27 August for at least one year. By mid-September, all domestic recyclers that had applied for exemptions had received interim 365-day export licences, allowing Asia-bound shipments to resume.

Elsewhere, the application of hazardous waste shipment laws from Europe have become increasingly stringent as the deadline for the European Commission’s updated List of Waste has approached, pushing many Asian traders to switch their attention to second life cells and battery scrap. In India, only a small handful of battery recyclers have export licenses, allowing them to export a set portion of their production.

What is next for black mass payables in Q4?

It remains to be seen whether the US government will announce a final ruling on how it will treat black mass exports beyond the interim 365-day window currently in place. Elsewhere in policy, further trade interventions from other countries following the example of Europe, US and India could have market implications. The development of Western hydrometallurgical capacity will also be followed closely, especially following recent export restrictions and the US Department of Energy’s USD$500m grant commitment to battery and critical mineral recycling.

LFP feedstock trading activity will also be of interest. As buying interest in LFP waste streams increases, there could be significant shifts in the price as competition intensifies. The direction of virgin battery metal prices, including continued cobalt and lithium price weakness, could also keep downward pressure on payables across all regions heading into Q4.

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