Hydroxide standoff and broad decline: Q3 2026 Cobalt Price Review

Increased DRC exports led to cobalt hydroxide prices (CIF Asia) falling 31% to across Q3 to $17.25/lb ($38,030/tonne), while cobalt sulphate prices (EXW China) dropped nearly 30% to RMB 58,000/tonne ($8,642), according to Benchmark’s Cobalt Price Assessment.

EXW Europe cobalt metal prices eased about 11%, while CIF Asia MHP cobalt payables sank from 91.5% to 65.8% by mid September as a result of cheaper hydroxide offering an alternative.

“Q3 2026 has seen a broad decline in prices across the cobalt supply chain as rising DRC-origin supply succeeded the weak downstream buying that defined Q2,” said George Ingall, a senior cobalt price analyst at Benchmark.

Why did the cobalt hydroxide trade stall in August?

Benchmark's daily cobalt hydroxide assessment dropped to $22.50/lb in early August and held there, as no trades were confirmed in the ten days to 26 August. The weekly index, which incorporates agreeing bids, offers, and sentiment during periods of low liquidity, fell over 11% week-on-week to $17.50/lb in mid August.

“The market fell into a stalemate, with sellers unwilling to transact below $20.00/lb while buyers, holding adequate inventory against a soft battery order book, saw no reason to chase,” Ingall said.

Why did cobalt sulphate lead the decline in prices?

The recovery in material flow anticipated at the end of Q2 duly arrived, with DRC hydroxide imports into China exceeding 10,000 tonnes in June compared with roughly 2,000 tonnes in May. Sulphate held between RMB 80,000 and 85,000/tonne through most of July on stable NCM demand, before rising arrivals of hydroxide material pulled it down 2.4% on 29 July. Recyclers then discounted units, and it fell 6.7% week-on-week to RMB 70,000/tonne ($10,432) on 26 August as buyers held out ahead of pre-Golden Week stockpiling. Sulphate declined every week in September to RMB 58,000/tonne on 30 September.

Why did MHP payables and metal follow lower?

Downstream buyers viewed 91% payables as too high in July, with cheaper hydroxide offering an alternative, and MHP payables sank as that gap widened. European metal held above $25.00/lb through August, as elevated hydroxide feedstock costs made extra production unviable, before easing as weak demand caught up.

What should cobalt market participants watch for in Q4?

Benchmark will be watching whether trades finally cross the hydroxide bid-offer gap, and whether buyers return once Golden Week ends. DRC customs processes and quota implementation remain a swing factor for inflows into China, alongside further recycler discounting in sulphate.

Read more Q3 Price Reviews

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