Ex-China prices on the rise: Q2 2026 Rare Earths Price Review

Rare earth pricing trended downwards through most of April and May, before showing tentative signs of stabilisation and a slight recovery in June. Throughout the quarter, Benchmark’s China PrNd oxide index fell by ~5%, pulling back from the peak levels during the robust Q1 rally. However, heavy rare earths showed more divergent trends, with dysprosium and terbium staging a meaningful recovery by the end of the period.

The defining theme of Q2, however, was the widening gulf between Chinese domestic and ex-China heavy rare earth prices, a continuation of dynamics set in motion by China's curbing of exports to Japan back in January. As the largest consumer of heavy rare earths outside China, Japan had historically relied heavily on direct Chinese supply. With that channel restricted since the start of the year, Japanese buyers spent Q2 aggressively sourcing material from the limited pool available in Europe and North America, progressively bidding up ex-China prices while Chinese domestic pricing remained comparatively insulated.

Export controls constraining ex-China availability

By quarter-end, the bifurcation between China and ex-China prices for heavy rare earths had widened, underscoring how acutely export controls have restricted ex-China availability. CIF Europe dysprosium oxide is now 6.8 times that of DDP China, while CIF North America yttrium oxide is 188 times the equivalent DDP China price.

In April, PrNd prices saw a sharp downward correction as the momentum from Q1’s rally dissipated. Chinese magnet producers maintained a strictly cautious procurement strategy, keeping inventories at a minimum and transacting only on a hand-to-mouth basis. Market sentiment grew increasingly bearish, characterised by thin spot liquidity and slow new orders across the magnet supply chain. In ex-China markets, PrNd pricing in Europe and North America followed the domestic downturn, shedding roughly 6% over the month, while heavy rare earth markets stayed structurally tight; dysprosium oxide CIF Europe climbed sharply and yttrium oxide in North America jumped by more than 27% as consumers vied for extremely scarce supply.

Strong inventory hit heavy rare earths

During May, the downward trajectory for PrNd accelerated, with Benchmark’s China assessment dropping an additional 9% to reach quarterly lows as downstream demand stayed persistently soft and buyers lacked the incentive to restock. Heavy rare earth prices in China also softened, as elevated inventory levels and seasonal lulls in wind sector demand weighed on dysprosium and yttrium. Conversely, supply-side constraints in ex-China markets continued to provide a floor for heavy rare earth pricing, with terbium oxide CIF Europe ticking higher despite the weakening domestic Chinese market.

By June, market sentiment began to improve gradually, with PrNd prices staging a modest rebound while heavy rare earths recorded more significant gains. Dysprosium oxide surged by over 9% in China by late June, bolstered by seasonal supply disruptions from the rainy season affecting mining operations, more stringent environmental inspections, and constrained import volumes from Myanmar and Vietnam. While terbium oxide also strengthened, yttrium prices continued to soften amid sluggish demand. Outside China, the structural deficit in dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium persisted as the primary market narrative, with limited export availability continuing to decouple international pricing from the more volatile domestic trends in China.

Q2 was defined by a notable correction from the elevated pricing seen in Q1, persistent weakness in downstream buying interest, and a generally guarded market tone, before a tentative upturn emerged late in the quarter, driven more by supply-side tightness than a significant recovery in demand.